Share your results from the Dark Prince's chest

[RadLonghammer]

So that's what I mean, stop struggling on this boring subject, no meanings.

If you're bored with this subject, you may simply cease to respond.

I, personally, am still enjoying it

[Harvey Guo]

Sigh, how can I say you?

I've already told you that to figure out more accurate probability is meaningless unless you control all variables, but you cannot gain that, so why become so stubborn?

I don't know why you believe your less 50 number of people become wild enough?

Many people read the thread, most of them will not post their thoughts, less than 50 people cannot even be a complete questionnaire, how can you use that to show your point? if you wanna calculate the probability, you can only sum up all chest number rather than people.

you misunderstand that these people who gain nemesis in 4 round can be a typical example, why not add the 2 big spender into this? I believe that will totally change your result and must be funny, right?

Again, you can only judge by number, rather than people. No matter how many people open with small amount, it will not show or even prove the phenomena or accuracy than One people with huge number.

Just like you toss toss toss coin, i dont know why you only use this example, too boring.

10 people toss, result 9:1 you cannot say 9 prove something

1 people toss 1,000 he has much qualify to speak rather than all you people.

Clear?

Stop struggling this meaningless point and go to sleep.

If you really have time, go check the whole forum member, sum the total number up and calculate the so-called accurate probability and show people, although it is nothing to me

Not true, good sir.

It's part of human nature that we like to whine about our bad luck, and seek sympathy from others. Surround yourself with Poker players, and you'll hear about the hands they LOST far more than the ones they won.

Further, with such a propensity toward being angry with GREE in this forum, I think the more vociferous nature of the "loser" becomes even more pronounced.



I remember the exchange quite well. The gentleman (or lady) was embarrassed over, and hesitant to disclose the amount of money/gems they had spent, NOT over the results of their draws.

I wouldn't use the data I presented in an effort to zero in on an exact probability for drawing Nemesis. In fact, I would use the data that you used. However, I would disclose that the number of samples is too few for anything close to certainty. I would disclose that my sample size yields a margin of error in the +/- 5 percentage point range, and I like to think I would be receptive to a colleague who pointed out some evidence that would strongly suggest that my number might be on the high side.

Consider this:

You suggest that the probability of gaining nemesis when opening a DP chest is .0852, slightly better than 1 in 12.

To calculate the chance of getting that Nemesis Armor in four draws, with a probability of .0852 per draw, we first need the failure rate. 1 - .0852 = .9148 probability of NOT, getting the nemesis in 1 draw. For the probability of missing Nemesis in 4 draws, we simply multiply .9148 by itself by 4.

.9148 x .9148 x .9148 x .9148 = .7003

That means that there if the probability of drawing nemesis is, as you state, .0852, then four draws should fail to produce it 70% of the time. This seems skewed from what we are observing by a wild enough margin to at least respect the possibility that .0852 might well be on the low side. Surely you must agree.

We don't even know that GREE keeps the Nemesis probability stable throughout any given week. It's entirely possible that they weight the probabilities TOWARD producing Nemesis in the 24-48 hours after the appearance of a boss, and reduce the odds later in the week.

Something is keeping Nemesis reasonably attainable on a low number of draws, while avoiding piling us up with Nemesis Armors that (I'm SURE we can agree on this) are relatively useless after your first two.

[Newbish]

How both of you just stfu and stop filling this thread with your rumblings, take them to pm.

[RadLonghammer]

Sigh, how can I say you?

I've already told you that to figure out more accurate probability is meaningless unless you control all variables, but you cannot gain that, so why become so stubborn?

I'm stubborn in only one regard. I'm stubbornly insisting that you not tell people that you know for sure that the probability of gaining Nemesis is 1/12, because you don't have enough evidence to state such a number with mathematical confidence.

Many people read the thread, most of them will not post their thoughts, less than 50 people cannot even be a complete questionnaire, how can you use that to show your point? if you wanna calculate the probability, you can only sum up all chest number rather than people.

I'm not counting people. I'm counting incidents. Many respondents reported more than one set of trials. The INCIDENT RATE of gaining a Nemesis in the first four draws seems high enough to cause us to question the 1/12 probability you continually insist on presenting as fact.

Again, you can only judge by number, rather than people. No matter how many people open with small amount, it will not show or even prove the phenomena or accuracy than One people with huge number.

Just like you toss toss toss coin, i dont know why you only use this example, too boring.

10 people toss, result 9:1 you cannot say 9 prove something

1 people toss 1,000 he has much qualify to speak rather than all you people.

DEAD WRONG!!! It doesn't matter if 1 person tosses a coin 1000 times, or 1000 people toss it 1 time each. 1000 results is 1000 results.

Now, in THIS case, I would NOT include the incidents I relayed in calculating a Nemesis Probability. The fact that most of them stopped opening chests after gaining Nemesis is enough to disqualify their results from consideration of determining probability.

HOWEVER, the high rate of hitting Nemesis in the first four tries STILL quite reasonably calls your number into question.

you misunderstand that these people who gain nemesis in 4 round can be a typical example, why not add the 2 big spender into this? I believe that will totally change your result and must be funny, right?

I'm not attempting to produce a result, only to prove that your result brings with it a high margin of error. I wouldn't even attempt to tell others what a probability was without at least 10,000 trials, and I'd still recognize a +/- 2% margin of error, even with that many.

[Eunuchorn]

This may not be pertinent & I didn't keep track of exact gem count but I've had at least 11 nemesis & only got 2 once in an 11-open

[Harvey Guo]

hahaha I'm have not enough evidence? hahahahha
you stats all sample together is no more than 200, my number is 231, do not let me laugh at you.
otherwise, I open a thread for you, I believe forum member will help you

I'm stubborn in only one regard. I'm stubbornly insisting that you not tell people that you know for sure that the probability of gaining Nemesis is 1/12, because you don't have enough evidence to state such a number with mathematical confidence.



I'm not counting people. I'm counting incidents. Many respondents reported more than one set of trials. The INCIDENT RATE of gaining a Nemesis in the first four draws seems high enough to cause us to question the 1/12 probability you continually insist on presenting as fact.



DEAD WRONG!!! It doesn't matter if 1 person tosses a coin 1000 times, or 1000 people toss it 1 time each. 1000 results is 1000 results.

Now, in THIS case, I would NOT include the incidents I relayed in calculating a Nemesis Probability. The fact that most of them stopped opening chests after gaining Nemesis is enough to disqualify their results from consideration of determining probability.

HOWEVER, the high rate of hitting Nemesis in the first four tries STILL quite reasonably calls your number into question.






I'm not attempting to produce a result, only to prove that your result brings with it a high margin of error. I wouldn't even attempt to tell others what a probability was without at least 10,000 trials, and I'd still recognize a +/- 2% margin of error, even with that many.

[Harvey Guo]

This may not be pertinent & I didn't keep track of exact gem count but I've had at least 11 nemesis & only got 2 once in an 11-open

You can tell him how many chest open or gems spent.

[Vigorous]

Is the aegis armor really 2700 stats? That's insane. Wonder who got the plus version lol

[Harvey Guo]

Cautions, maybe this number just added by GREE.

For the forum, only one member got the normal version.

Is the aegis armor really 2700 stats? That's insane. Wonder who got the plus version lol

[Newbish]

Is the aegis armor really 2700 stats? That's insane. Wonder who got the plus version lol

Don't think anyone has posted getting it but 2700 seems very high to me but who knows now a days with the way things are changing.

[DreamM0d3]

Don't think anyone has posted getting it but 2700 seems very high to me but who knows now a days with the way things are changing.

I hope this doesn't entice people to do stupid things like spamming more DPC in hopes of getting it. Unless someone comes out and report it as true, Im not buying it. That said, even if it was true, does it warrant spending so much money on it?

[Newbish]

I hope this doesn't entice people to do stupid things like spamming more DPC in hopes of getting it. Unless someone comes out and report it as true, Im not buying it. That said, even if it was true, does it warrant spending so much money on it?

For me spending money for digital items just don't seem right, so it don't matter how good the armour gets if I can't save up enough gems from the video offers I don't get it ESP after hearing other ppl experience and the luck of the draw
Although I try and get the nemesis armour every week with the free gems but haven't gotten any luck these last 2 weeks, I've also noticed a lot of my friends have either stopped playing or having the same luck with not getting the nemesis

[Vigorous]

I just saw it on the spreadsheet. I wouldn't even try to get it if its stars wa4000. The chances are way to low. Spend $500 and you still may not get it

[Sabre]

Got nemesis on my first try!

[RadLonghammer]

This may not be pertinent & I didn't keep track of exact gem count but I've had at least 11 nemesis & only got 2 once in an 11-open

That does seem pertinent along the a general observation (based on the first 16 pages of this thread) that Nemesis seems to appear at a much higher rate when opening chests individually than when utilizing the 11 gems for 200. While that's anecdotal, and difficult to prove, it certainly does seem worth noting.