Cruz is like a wildcard NFL team in the playoffs where all the top ranked teams have serious injuries hampering them. He might not be leading now, but he's in a very good position. You were wrong a couple months ago, and you're wrong now. There's a very good chance Cruz will end up being the nominee. It's really a question of whether when the actual votes start coming in people will want a total outsider (trump/carson/fiorina), a reformer (cruz/rubio) or an establishment insider (Bush/Kasich). I think Cruz is in the strongest position of the "reformer" group, which means he could easily become the front runner at any time. He's not dropping out any time soon.