My "theory" (which I've been using successfully since just before the first accomplice war) is perfectly sound. You only need to score 50% to win an attack, which is why it has been possible for mini and low level accounts to beat high level players with much bigger stats, but who haven't paid enough attention (or any) to getting accomplices. A draw is therefore not possible; you either score 50% or higher, or you don't.
The mafia win will do it alone. To win on accomplices if your mafia isn't good enough you need to win convincingly on both.