Thread: Scratcher Odds.
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06-15-2012, 06:28 AM #1
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Scratcher Odds.
Let me know if my math is wrong, but I think it's fairly simple to calculate the odds (assuming Funzio hasn't rigged it)
There are 6 items that can show up: (Car, armor, melee, Gun, $$, RP), so in each slot you have a 1/6 chance to get a certain item. To get the top items, you then need 6 of the same, which is simply 1/6 ^ 6. or 1 in 46,656. Since there are 6 top items, your chances are 6 in 46,656 (1 in 7,776) to get a top reward.
Getting 5 of the same items is 6 x's (1/6)^5 x's (5/6)^1, etc
Summary:
6-items - 1 in 7,776
5-items - 1 in 259
4-items - 1 in 52
3-items - 1 in 10
2-items - 1 in 2Last edited by murf; 06-15-2012 at 06:48 AM.
// Lvl: 250 // 488 394 051 // Atk: 9,917k // Def: 9,602k // IpH: $24,290,680
// Lvl: 147 // 365 655 496 // Atk: 6,954k // Def: 6,790k // IpH: $12,586,132
// Lvl: 79 // 233 936 800 // Atk: 5,978k // Def: 5,901k // IPH: $1,572,478
As of 1-27-14
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06-15-2012, 09:03 AM #2
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Hmm really crappy odds... I'll do my one a day... If I have 20g left from other purchases then yeah I'll chance it. But the common items don't help me much of at all. I'm sticking with crates to get weapons.
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06-15-2012, 09:18 AM #3
Murf, your odds are slightly off, at least on the lower end as everyone is guaranteed to win something as long as they play, and unless the odds have been amended to not reflect what you stated, then you *should* be right. Based on probability, the odds reflect:
n! / (r!*(n-r)!)SAS 4 Life
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06-15-2012, 11:26 AM #4
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Here is one probability of which we can all be sure: there is no chance Funzio will actually tell us the odds of getting the prizes.
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06-15-2012, 11:29 AM #5
The other thing you can be shore about is the odds will never better then they are now
"Death is the only Truth, everything else is a lie that needs to be Challenged" ~me
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06-15-2012, 11:33 AM #6
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And that scratchers will never be cheaper
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06-15-2012, 02:58 PM #7
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I play a lot of poker and this is basically a deck of cards with 6 suits
Math is wrong.
Maximum number of combinations 46,6566
If you want 6 out of 6 odds are:
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/46,656
There are 6 different (suits) giving 6/46,656 or 1 in 7,776
If you want 5 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/any not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/46,656
There are 6 different suits 30/46,656 or 1 in 1,555
If you want 4 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/ not gun/not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 25/46,656
6 suits = 150/46,656 or 1 in 311 or for you % fans 0.32%
3 out of 6:
1/62 or 1.6%
2 out of 6
1/12.4 or 8%
I thinkLevel 159
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06-15-2012, 03:30 PM #8Do unto others. If somebody beats you up, don't complain and act like a total wimp, just bulk up and fight back!
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06-15-2012, 03:43 PM #9
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// Lvl: 250 // 488 394 051 // Atk: 9,917k // Def: 9,602k // IpH: $24,290,680
// Lvl: 147 // 365 655 496 // Atk: 6,954k // Def: 6,790k // IpH: $12,586,132
// Lvl: 79 // 233 936 800 // Atk: 5,978k // Def: 5,901k // IPH: $1,572,478
As of 1-27-14
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06-15-2012, 03:54 PM #10
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I think that is right, I believe to get the grand prize (6 matching) it would be 1/6^6 which equals a .002143347 percent chance.
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06-15-2012, 03:55 PM #11
where is nicholost
Goal: To be the richest in Crime City.
Run with me, or run from me.
Stay thirsty my friends.
(CK) COLD Karma
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06-15-2012, 04:50 PM #12
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Does anybody know how to get the scratcher back up? I downloaded the update, which launched the scratcher...and nerfed the event. Then the event fixed itself, but I don't see where you get the scratcher back...maybe I am missing something.
Anyway, first free scratch was trip respect for 1,000 respect...i'll take it.
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06-15-2012, 05:01 PM #13
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Under the special tab
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06-15-2012, 05:08 PM #14
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Nice thanks for the feedback.
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06-15-2012, 05:18 PM #15
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// Lvl: 250 // 488 394 051 // Atk: 9,917k // Def: 9,602k // IpH: $24,290,680
// Lvl: 147 // 365 655 496 // Atk: 6,954k // Def: 6,790k // IpH: $12,586,132
// Lvl: 79 // 233 936 800 // Atk: 5,978k // Def: 5,901k // IPH: $1,572,478
As of 1-27-14