Originally Posted by
montana
I started hitting Freddie Falcon when contest began, I spent 100 in gold at the beginning of contest.
I figure I spent over 16,000 in energy. I did not see a constant drop rate. I was not getting a drop
Rate of 2 to 1 on Gloves vs Mask. It was like 6 or 8 to 1 on gloves vs Mask. I ended up with 3 rifles.
I would have spent another 100 in gold if I saw a pattern. In the 5000 of energy I spent in gold
which I used at the beginning of contest, I did not get 1 rifle. I did get 1 rifle before I spent the
100 in gold. That was a waste.
I spent over 45k energy trying to get the rifle, I can understand what you felt like with your spending. I ran some trials using a random generator and the results did model about what I was experiencing even though I went an entire day of free hits without seeing a single gun drop.
The program models a similar way the random program would determine a drop. Pick a random number between .001 and .999. If the number is between .9 and .999 it's a gun. If the number is between .601 and .9 it's a mask. If the number is between .001 and .6 it's a pair of gloves. It would also display the number of attempts in between getting guns, and since it's a random sequence there shouldn't be patterns anyways.
Code:
The longest gun drought was: 21
Gun droughts: 18, 11, 21, 6, 15,
50 - 21 - 5
Total attempts: 76
The longest gun drought was: 10
Gun droughts: 0, 5, 10, 3, 5,
15 - 8 - 5
Total attempts: 28
The longest gun drought was: 14
Gun droughts: 0, 3, 7, 9, 14,
22 - 11 - 5
Total attempts: 38
The longest gun drought was: 25
Gun droughts: 25, 3, 6, 21, 2,
37 - 20 - 5
Total attempts: 62
The longest gun drought was: 25
Gun droughts: 4, 11, 7, 2, 25,
35 - 14 - 5
Total attempts: 54
The longest gun drought was: 83
Gun droughts: 11, 4, 83, 43, 1,
85 - 57 - 5
Total attempts: 147
So I hope this can at least show that from running those consecutive tests that there can be some incredible variance between total attempts because of how small the odds are of getting the 1 gun. It can take as few as 28 or as many as 147 in the trials that I ran. If you average the total of all those trials it comes out to be 73.8 hits. We can't do 73.8 kills on Freddy so we'll just have to call it 74. Those average of 74 kills would be 74x6x64 = 18944 energy to give about the average amount of energy to receive the 5 drops. I ended up on the less fortunate side of this luck fest so to speak, but there really was no problem with the drop rates. It just heavily depended on a very uncommon variable to be matched with a random sequence.
The program was modeled only to finish when 5 guns were gained so it's not the energy required to finish the event, merely to get 5 guns overall.