False advertising on epic chests

[B Legit]

@Clemintine
is the chance to get an epic/legenday a base value, i.e. 1%, or is it based on the number of armors available in the chest.
Since the game has been released
there has been
10 x 1* armors
18 x 2* armors
8 x 3* armors
so only 36 non-legendary armors
> 75 x 4* armors (in chests)
28 x 5* armors (in chests)

is the chance of getting a epic variable with the increasing number of legendary and epic gear available?

Plus there are epics that are worse than legendary now (go go Moontide +) {pointless comment but I had to vent}

The chance to get an epic wouldn't be variable with the # of armors available, however WHICH epic would be. So you have an X percent chance to get an epic, legendary, etc. Now once it is determined which * value you will be rewarded, a new formula takes over to determine which armor within that * value you will receive. The # of armors within each * value is irrelevant to your overall chance of pulling an epic, although there are only 10 1*'s, you're still FAR more likely to pull one than a 4* or 5*.
And yes, PLEASE take Moontide out of the chest/fusion. It really is a slap in the face to get it.

[Smiley80]

B legit I disagree, a great programmer does not mean he is a good statistician. He could have a twinky-dink formula. However I do believe that they have a formula

50% 2*, 30% 3*, 5% fusion boost, (2% x 5) legendary, (1% x 5) epic

then once you get an epic a second stats come into play:

30% the new feature epic, 3% chance the new feature epic+, 60% old epics, 6% old epic+

Everything above is my own speculation

[B Legit]

B legit I disagree, a great programmer does not mean he is a good statistician. He could have a twinky-dink formula. However I do believe that they have a formula

50% 2*, 30% 3*, 5% fusion boost, (2% x 5) legendary, (1% x 5) epic

then once you get an epic a second stats come into play:

30% the new feature epic, 3% chance the new feature epic+, 60% old epics, 6% old epic+

Everything above is my own speculation

I don't see where you disagree lol. You basically just said the same thing with slightly tweaked numbers. However they do not offer Fusin Boosts in these chests. Also your percentages are all far too high for the better armors. The epic is going to be more around a half a percent or lower. I just used 1% to make it easier to understand. Definitely not 30% for the new epic, more like 10%, and less than a half percent for the +.
I've opened hundreds of chests and tracked guildies opening hundreds. The pattern I see the most is you have the best chance to get the new epic at two times. Right when the chest comes out (within the first 10 minutes), and right before it disappears (last 5-10 minutes). Also right after an update the formula seems to reset. That seems to be the time their formula "peaks," because there is obviously some sort of cap on how many can be given out.

Edit: Also I am android, it could very well be different on IOS

[UP Tide]

A Chance is a Chance...simple as that. Just buy chests, cross your fingers, and use the FBA you get.

[Rookeye]

I can't help thinking "cross your fingers and kiss your butt goodbye..."

This is why my gems go to wars. I prefer to know the odds before I gamble.

[southpaw29]

Because we cannot solve for "X" there is n way to determine a percentage when it comes to getting epics. I don't purchase chest for this reason. GREE may have X as .0001% so even at 5 or even 6X the chance for Epic or Legendary your chances are still less than 1%. Knowing them, I am probably highballing the equation lol. I have probably only purchased maybe 20 chests (not counting the free keys from events) and have pulled 2 epics, Maelstrom Irons and Blazeborne. I prefer to fuse my own epics. Yes, I know that I will never have the pretty, shiny new epics that come out right away but eventually they will be fusable and I am OK with getting them later on.

Good luck to all chest openers.

[roookey1]

I agree -- all those outdated epics should be transfered to the Dark Prince Chest.
It is nothing than a slap in the face to 'award' a paying customer with a crap epic.

And by the way, I found no difference at all between the "4x chance"/"5x chance"/"6x chance" chests, so as southpaw has also concluded above, the actual "X-Factor" seems to be so ridiculously low that the multiplicator doesn't effect in any noticeable uprise in returned epics.
So the smart move seems to be to not open chests at all: as the chance almost equals zero, the respective (anything else than trivial) money would be better spent on ALS or Ebola research and probably produce more measurable and positive effects.

[B Legit]

I agree -- all those outdated epics should be transfered to the Dark Prince Chest.
It is nothing than a slap in the face to 'award' a paying customer with a crap epic.

And by the way, I found no difference at all between the "4x chance"/"5x chance"/"6x chance" chests, so as southpaw has also concluded above, the actual "X-Factor" seems to be so ridiculously low that the multiplicator doesn't effect in any noticeable uprise in returned epics. The smart move seems to be to not open chests at all.

The multiplier DOES matter, it matters noticeably. There definitely is an increase in epics pulled with higher multipliers...

That being said. It still does NOT make up for the extra gems it costs, and you are still just as likely to pull an older epic.
Only open chests that cost 30 gems each if you are going to open. The multiplier DOES help, but doesn't affect it enough to make up for the extra gems.

[Jun-fan]

This is why my gems go to wars. I prefer to know the odds before I gamble.

This brings up something interesting and slightly off topic, but is it better to hold off on chests and spend on wars, or go all out on chests? For the newbies out there, they may see that winning a war (or at least placing well in one) guarantees an epic, whereas opening 1, 11, or 40 chests might yield an epic. So what's your preference - go with chests knowing you have a bunch of fusion fodder (which you may be able to fuse into an epic at some point) and FBAs and a chance at an epic, or spend on a war where you (depending on your guild) are guaranteed an epic but no way of immediately leveling it up?

[B Legit]

This brings up something interesting and slightly off topic, but is it better to hold off on chests and spend on wars, or go all out on chests? For the newbies out there, they may see that winning a war (or at least placing well in one) guarantees an epic, whereas opening 1, 11, or 40 chests might yield an epic. So what's your preference - go with chests knowing you have a bunch of fusion fodder (which you may be able to fuse into an epic at some point) and FBAs and a chance at an epic, or spend on a war where you (depending on your guild) are guaranteed an epic but no way of immediately leveling it up?

Up to each individual person. Also account for the fact that you can get an epic, a new very strong epic, from a chest for 30 gems (theoretically) if you are extremely lucky. While in a war you're spending 500+ no matter what, for an older epic. However out of chest you can spend a thousand gems and get nothing lol. It's a tough question that there is no real right answer to.

[Jun-fan]

Up to each individual person. Also account for the fact that you can get an epic, a new very strong epic, from a chest for 30 gems (theoretically) if you are extremely lucky. While in a war you're spending 500+ no matter what, for an older epic. However out of chest you can spend a thousand gems and get nothing lol. It's a tough question that there is no real right answer to.

I was just looking for opinions, I guess. It happened during the last war that someone in my guild pushed pretty hard and spent gems only to end up out of the top 25. I currently have someone else that is pushing for a top 3 finish in the arena. In the second case, we've debated the merits of spending a lot of gems on a chance at one epic in the arena versus spending a lot of gems on several chances at different epics on chests. Personally, I'd go the chest route so I'd have armors to fuse into the epic. Of course, that would suck if I didn't get an epic - then I'd have 40 useless armors and 11 useless fusion boosts, and that would put me over my armor limit and...well, that's another thread entirely...

[Dubstepper123]

I have spent 800 bucks on this game, and i have only gotten 1 epic from the chests no matter what the chances. Personally i'm getting tired of this.

[Smiley80]

I have spent about 250$ on this game in 18 months. I got 4 chest epic, 1 top 10 epic, 1 top 25 epic, and 9 fused epics. There actually is a smart way of saving/buying and spending gems.

[Rookeye]

I think there's luck and cost involved no matter what route you choose to get your epics:

* epic chests
* war winnings
* fusing an epic

I haven't hit top 10 yet, not bought a chest pack. The 8-9 combo fuses I've done so far have yielded ONE semi-decent Epic (Arborsteel) and a whole bunch of good looking old legendaries that I have turned around and recombined for something else.

My point is, without a huge whack of luck, you're gonna pay one way or another, either in money or in time, to get that elusive Epic. Good luck everyone!

[MitDac]

If you buy lottery, you know your chance of winning. If you go to casino, you know your chance of winning. With opening chest, fusing armors to get epics, YOU HAVE NO IDEA what your chance is! Gree will never publish this x chance is, because if they do, no one will play the game. Sure, I can see a handful of people being satisfied here, but don't forget there are thousands up on thousands of people got dissappointed