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Thread: Box event swindle

  1. #16
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    The odds for opening were so low that the final cutoff for placing in the Top 250 Leaders (25 orbs) wasn't even enough to earn the Level 3 event reward (30 orbs)!

  2. #17
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    Whether people act on the desire to make a desperate attempt to open a lockbox/crate or not, it's STILL GREE'S FAULT. The "odds" they set aren't "odds" at all, they are programming. Your account is going to be allowed a certain number of successful opens for a desired object no matter how many hundreds of times you try to open the box. If the pre-determined number of open boxes the programming has set for your account is 9, you WILL NOT open a tenth, all you will get are small units, orbs, or another box to open. The "odds" that they claim to set are literally against the laws of mathematics, because there is a point before the majority of accounts reach 10 that your "odds" become zero. Math doesn't do that. A programmed system does. This is a scam by Gree, and it is illegal. I look forward to the day their numbers are investigated and the truth comes out. A lot of good people have been fooled into thinking they have an actual chance at a great prize. Karma's going to get you, Gree. It's a shame you couldn't just treat your customer base with honesty and respect. All bad things will come to an end.
    Last edited by AvatarTBS; 06-17-2014 at 07:10 AM.

  3. #18
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    When you lose at these events, you come and complain. The people who win usually do not. In the last 5 box events (the ones you open a total of 10), I have won 3 of them with gold opens only. I am a 100% free player so it isn't like Gree only gives favors to gemmers.

    People that come on here are only a tiny fraction of the total number of people that play the game. And like I said, there's nothing to complain about when you win. Your data set is way to small to draw ANY conclusions about the game's odds.

    Put it this way, if you know anything about odds and chances, even if you flip a coin 10 times, there is a chance that all 10 will be heads. Just because it is 50/50 doesn't mean you'll always get 5 head and 5 tails. What it is likely is that the people who come to complain are the ones that got 8 heads and 2 tails... that is why there are so few of you.

    To put it into perspective, even if there are 50 of you complaining (which there aren't), and if the game has only 50,000 players (which there are certainly more) , that's only 0.001% of you! Now tell me, how can you possibly know what the odds are based on such a miniscule sample set?

  4. #19
    Articulate Author Skyraiders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryosaeba View Post
    When you lose at these events, you come and complain. The people who win usually do not. In the last 5 box events (the ones you open a total of 10), I have won 3 of them with gold opens only. I am a 100% free player so it isn't like Gree only gives favors to gemmers.

    People that come on here are only a tiny fraction of the total number of people that play the game. And like I said, there's nothing to complain about when you win. Your data set is way to small to draw ANY conclusions about the game's odds.

    Put it this way, if you know anything about odds and chances, even if you flip a coin 10 times, there is a chance that all 10 will be heads. Just because it is 50/50 doesn't mean you'll always get 5 head and 5 tails. What it is likely is that the people who come to complain are the ones that got 8 heads and 2 tails... that is why there are so few of you.

    To put it into perspective, even if there are 50 of you complaining (which there aren't), and if the game has only 50,000 players (which there are certainly more) , that's only 0.001% of you! Now tell me, how can you possibly know what the odds are based on such a miniscule sample set?
    actually....when I was a player...I took the opportunity to do the research you suggested....I took my entire guilds findings along with some friends from other guilds.....while I don't have the numbers in front of me......I did get a sample size of over 300 peoples data from box opens.....over more than one event

    rusty knife opens ...gold opens...and gem opens.....the numbers I got were depressing.....honestly I don't know how anyone wins the event.

    you make a completely valid point with the quarter flip.....but my number suggested something a little more shady going on behind the scenes.....

    KA: 630-568-270

  5. #20
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    There have been experiments done several times by the top guilds in the game as well as the fine folks who provide the data sets and information for walkthroughs and other helpful information. The data sample has been far from small, and it has been done dozens of times. The math doesn't support legitimate odds for any type of player to have a shot at 10/10 unless it has been predetermined by the programming. It has been tested by free players, by gold players, and by gem players. The same percentage of people have the exact same "odds" to reach 10/10. Try the experiment with any guild you please, you'll see the same result. Gree fixes these odds. It's not legal, it's not ethical, and it's not fun. It is straight-up gambling at a crooked casino. Stop breaking the damn law so we can continue having fun with this game.

  6. #21
    Articulate Author Skyraiders's Avatar
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    that is what I meant by......shady behind the scenes....

    and I know for a fact that the numbers change as you go....and that they adjust numbers behind the scenes.....this is all I will say as you seem to have a great understanding of the event

    KA: 630-568-270

  7. #22
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    300 is still a very small sample size. That's only 6 guilds with 50 players each. If you take the top 100 guilds, your 6 guilds would account for only 6% of the report. I would have to say it is highly inaccurate to conclude that something is fishy with a 6% sample size.

    Perhaps it can be just counted as bad luck when it doesn't happen often for your own team. From my own guild (top 10 with 60 players), in the last box event (get 10 items), more then 5 players received it without gemming. I don't think you can truly count the people that gem their way but it's still a pretty good percentage. So if half the team didn't gem and still got the 10 items, that's a good 16.6%!

    A few of our members are in the top 25 leader board and I've yet to hear any one of them complain about the odds of receiving the item. As I said, this forum is a natural magnet for complaints, not compliments. Until you can get a full picture of who won and who lost, there's just no way to figure out if the odds are being manipulated.

  8. #23
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    Jun 2013
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    Ryosaeba, you say his sample size is too small but you yourself fail to take something in mind.

    You mention the top 100 guilds and say the comparison doesn't look as bad. But you fail to consider those outside top 100 where you 6% would probably less than 1% outside the top 100 would complete it. So while numbers MAY be decent in top ten guilds, the further you move away from that chances are good the chances of success decrease.

    Box events are total crap, I will not gem or even use gold on them ever again. Funniest thing though, I completed one box event once and it was done completely with rusty knife opening.

  9. #24
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    I am more than happy to comment on things Gree does, both pros and cons. I wouldn't play this game if I didn't want it to be enjoyable. Don't project your weird personal problems at others.

    Standing around and saying thanks for someone repeatedly running an event that takes advantage of people is nonsensical. Why stick up for that? Cheating is cheating, whether it's the players doing it or Gree doing it. This game, like so many others, is run like a casino app that someone put a blanket of "fantasy roleplaying" over. This is no longer 5 years ago. Everybody knows how these tricks work, and once the scam is exposed, it's over for Gree and every company like it. So I recommend that they stop following the road to ruin with the casino garbage, and give us what was promised with this game: a mobile social fantasy roleplaying app that is fun and fair to everyone. One that rewards people who work the hardest, not whomever gets suckered out of the most money. If they can't figure out how to make money off a game with a large fan base who looks forward to every new quest without resorting to carny tricks and price gouging, they will not make it in ANY business, especially this one.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krayt View Post
    You mention the top 100 guilds and say the comparison doesn't look as bad. But you fail to consider those outside top 100 where you 6% would probably less than 1% outside the top 100 would complete it. So while numbers MAY be decent in top ten guilds, the further you move away from that chances are good the chances of success decrease.
    That's a total assumption. I mentioned the top 100 because naturally they are more active then lower guilds. No where does it say your chances decrease by your guild rank. Your chances will decrease if you open less boxes (i.e. being less active). But again, this is just my assumption. I'm sure there are people in lower guild just as active and they won't come here to report if they won the event.

    The only way to get a real unbiased data set is to randomly pick players from the whole game. And the only way I can think of to do that is to pick players from the Battle List and survey them. This would need to be done from all level groups as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarTBS View Post
    Everybody knows how these tricks work, and once the scam is exposed, it's over for Gree and every company like it. So I recommend that they stop following the road to ruin with the casino garbage, and give us what was promised with this game: a mobile social fantasy roleplaying app that is fun and fair to everyone. One that rewards people who work the hardest, not whomever gets suckered out of the most money.
    So by your logic, anyone that puts enough money at a real virtual casino should always win? In anything with a chance to win, there's always the chance to lose. Now the lock boxes and drop items are the only things with a chance factor. Just don't do them if you don't like to gamble. Like you said, if enough people boycotts these events, Gree will change them. But gambling is attractive and addictive to some. Gree knows it. Casinos knows it. That's why they are so profitable.
    Last edited by Ryosaeba; 06-17-2014 at 10:39 PM.

  11. #26
    Steady Scribe
    Member Since
    Aug 2013
    Post Count
    54
    Yes but Casino's are regulated (in most countries) to offer transparent gaming odds.

    I've never seen any sort of disclaimer from Gree that would clarify how much (perceived) odds winning events are truely just random or if there's other factors that may be used to determine outcomes.

  12. #27
    Verbose Veteran
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    Jun 2013
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    716
    Ryosaeba, lower guilds do open less boxes because they are less likely to gem. I have witnessed top ten guilds that will gem to reset time and gem to open. Once you get to top 25 that is less likely as they aren't as apt to gem both. The further away from the top you are the decrease in gems spent you will see. I have seen this in various guilds and talking with others I have met. You can call it an assumption, but sorry I didn't collect the data I collected as the info was only for me and I stored it in my head.

    I will admit I do know of one that won outside of top 100 and he was shocked. It was the only time anyone in his guild had ever finished a box event. That said, the only way to get you best chance of completing a box event is to gem open and gem time. Any others have shown that they usually fall short

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillyGates View Post
    Yes but Casino's are regulated (in most countries) to offer transparent gaming odds.

    I've never seen any sort of disclaimer from Gree that would clarify how much (perceived) odds winning events are truely just random or if there's other factors that may be used to determine outcomes.
    Gree does not need to be regulated because you do not actually win real money. Whatever you "win" is still Gree's property. If they shut down the game tomorrow, there's nothing you can do about any of your "winnings." I guess the best thing you can do is take screen shots and keep them forever and ever...

    There is no point in clarifying the odds because they are just odds, not guaranties. One time, on the L100 raid bosses, I received 7 rare units and only 1 legendary out of 8 kills. But that was only once. The events after that I received about 50/50. So yes, bad luck does happen.

    Besides, what good is it for Gree to manipulate the odds anyway? It is surely against their profit margin if someone spends 3000 gems and does not "win." That player, as they claim in these forums, will not spend gems any more. Wouldn't it be wise for Gree to manipulate the odds if say someone spends 2000 gems then change their percentage to 90% for the item? I bet if they did that, no one will complain about odd manipulation then even though it's against the rules.

    In any case, we can all go back and forth forever as we will never know what really goes on behind the scene. If you really think they are cheating, then don't spend money on it. Simple as that.

  14. #29
    Steady Scribe
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    Aug 2013
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    54
    I think we're in agreement here, but just wanted to clarify...

    I didn't mean to imply they should be regulated, just saying they aren't so we really don't know what's going on with the algorithms.

    I wouldn't call potentially what they're doing 'cheating', just saying the outcomes maybe manipulated in ways we don't know...

  15. #30
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    I understand what you're saying Billy. I'm just saying it is not in the best interest of Gree to prevent big spenders from getting the final prize. It does not make any sense to Gree to do this what so ever. The only reason that it does happen it's because of the odds, and whoever it was, well, it's just bad luck.

    Let me give you an example: Let's say 1000 players will spend 1500 gems on this box event. If the odds were 999:1000 (99.9%) that you will get it within that amount, that means there could be this 1 guy out of 1000 players who will not get the final prize. Now let's say we have 20,000 players who will spend 1500 gems. That means 20 people could not be getting the final prize. If half of them come on the forums to complain, that would seem like a lot to people who read the forums (which is mostly complaints). So even if they do declare the odds openly, there will still be someone not getting the prize because the odds are not 100%. To that 1 guy out of the 1000 who spend 1500 gems, that person would of course think Gree cheated them. I mean how is it possible that they lost with 99.9% odds? But since it isn't 100% and there are so many players, there are bound to be that someone that falls into that 0.1%. Think of it as winning the "bad luck lotto." It's hard to win but someone will win it eventually.
    Last edited by Ryosaeba; 06-19-2014 at 11:51 PM.

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