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  1. #1

    Progressive Results from IOS guild war!!!

    FINAL UPDATE: END OF WAR, NOV 2

    Hey folks!
    Final results are here! Great war everyone!

    LINK

    https://docs.google.com/presentation...it?usp=sharing

    The usual charts are here, and then I also added some extras which reflect my own curiosities. I hope you find them interesting too!

    RECAP:

    Well, I suspect that the fight at the top was not as dramatic as the last war, and I’ve got the charts to prove it!!! The RR maintained and kept their comfortable lead, and their 1st place was never contended all the way to the end. What’s weird is that the *lack* of competition was evident in all levels! There was NO fighting tooth and nail for the bronze finish either. I believe most of the guilds simply cruised along to finish.

    Slide#2: the war results.
    Congratulations to RR, the untouchables, and Konoha who
    placed first, second, and third places respectively. The Bronze medal went to SNL, Evolve, Centurions, War, RainbowRug, Deus, and Sauce.

    Slide#3: DPA

    DPA’s activity slowed down slightly at the last half of the war, but they pretty much maintained their steady rate to finish, finishing at the 45th rank. Thanks to you guys, I now know what the “upper limit” performance is for a highly active non-spending guild PLUS I got to borrow your data to do some cost estimate later (see 7th slide). Hehe

    Slide #4: Top guilds, and their performance comparison from last war

    As you can see – no huge fight amongst the top guilds, reduced activity from the Rainbow Room and the Untouchables towards the end of the war, and the Konoha matching the DPA’s last war performance.

    Slide #5: A view of the competition at the top (comparison from last war)

    In the last war, the top two guilds swapped ranks and the bronze medal contenders also swapped ranks many many times. This war was much more peaceful, with the respective placements for the top 10 guilds being pretty much decided from early on, and un-challenged. Really guys? No drama?

    Slide #6:The point gain progression comparison.

    All values are normalized to their maximum respective value. This might not be so straight forward to read, but basically, a straight 45 degree angle slope indicates steady rise of the points (thus even paced) whereas a high slope indicates point gain rush (thus stressful). A concave portion would indicate a stressful end point, whereas a convex portion would indicate a high paced point rise in the beginning to slow rate of point rise at the end. The graph, to me, indicates what I suspected: both RR and Untouchables enjoyed a less stressful battle this week, compared to the last war. Also, as always, the competition at the ribbons is much more mild than the top spots.

    Slide #7: the rise of the ribbons

    Compared to the last war, the rate of point accumulation at the ribbon cut off lines increased for Ribbon B-F, coincidently at the beginning of the weekend for most. The odd thing is, the gem sales also had ended by then. I do hope that the players were proactive and bought their gems early when on sale!
    The cutoff line for ribbon A was very much deflated compared to that of last guild war.

    Slide #8: Cost of winning (estimation)

    Take this with a grain of salt. Since I only have access to public data, I had to use a lot of assumptions and logical guesses to come up with a figure. BUT I did estimate how much each of the top guilds had spent for this war, and I also added a bunch of slides explaining my assumptions and error potentials. EXAMPLE: RR.. did you guys spend $7000?

    Enjoy!!!
    Last edited by cafedecoy; 11-02-2013 at 07:47 PM.

  2. #2
    RECAP FROM OCT 31(24 hours into the war):

    * Once again, lots of activity in the top guilds, and gem spending frenzy ensues at full force! Right now, it looks like the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place contenders have distinguished themselves, consistently and from the beginning of the wars (these being the Rainbow Room, The untouchables, and Konoha, respectively), and these three guilds look like they can cruise along until the end of the war... except... watch out Konoha, Evolve is narrowing the gap!

    * The fight for the bronze medal: It's too early to comment, but the spread seems to be wider than the last war. Once again, there's a cluster at the top, and another cluster fighting to not fall into the Ribbon A range.

    * WAIT WAIT WAIT.. what happened to the DPA the #3 guild? Well, it seems like they are making an honest guild out of themselves by staying true to their proposed boycott. Of course, I had to keep an extra eye on them to see what they are doing exactly. They are not at the top, but far from dead! The activity from the guild seems to be fairly constant and their guild rank seems to be stabilizing at around high 30s - mid 40s rank (see graph #2). Can they stick to their boycott forever, or will they succumb to the lure of gem spending frenzy? Time will only tell, but the graphs don't lie.. I guess we will see if we see a huge unusual spike of an activity!

    *So how are the top guilds performing compared to the last war? Well.. I have an overlay graph of the top three guilds from the last war (RR, Untouchables, DPA) and the current top four from this week (RR, Untouchables, Konoha, Evolve)... and of course, I couldn't leave out this week's boycotting DPA too. Some interesting stuff happening here. The untouchables are progressing at *almost the same pace* as they did in the last war. LOL you can almost figure out their group's sleep cycles . BUT the RR seems to be gaining points faster than ever. In fact, they have surpassed the 10 MILLION POINT MARK in the 19th-20th hour!!!! Have they adopted some new point gaining tactics, or did the "idea" of having the 1st place contention challenged during last war scare them enough to buy more gems than ever? LOL that 30% discount on gems this war (as opposed to meager 20% last war) looks really yummy now doesn't it? As an outsider, I have no idea what the folks at RR are thinking.. maybe they wanted to pay up the DPA's portion of gems, feeling bad for GREE? I don't know (the numbers do sorta kinda add up nicely though, as if by design!).

    *The new 3rd/4th place contenders are working hard, but can't really produce the "gusto" that DPA is capable of. Oh well...

    * The last slide is the slide for the rest of us. As you know, lots of people were complaining about the war and making claims of quitting, etc... is it really affecting the overall game play? Well... again it does seem a bit too early to tell, but it does look like the cutoff point gain for the ribbons this war seem to be mimicking that of the last war almost perfectly. The difference, of course, is the cutoff for the Ribbon A (huge difference), and I'm also beginning to notice some point deflation for the Ribbon B cutoff. It's probably safe to assume that the higher ranks have higher probability of gem spending activity, and the deflation of activity at the top tiers is palpable.
    There were some intense battles for the bronze medal during the last war. So far, the enthusiasm for that spirit epic non plus armor seems to be somewhat lukewarm. I can't say if this is a function of the lack of enthusiasm for the new rewards, or ... maybe it's just a case of Wednesday? We will see!!!!

    Enjoy!

    Next update: I can't make promises (it is in the middle of the week, after all), but probably around this time tomorrow!

    RECAP FROM Nov 1st (48 hours into the war):

    * FIRST SLIDE: Progressive War results
    THE RR has crossed the 15 million points mark a little shy of 40th hour into the game. The top contender placements have been raising their points steadily, but there have not been too many placement switching surprises. For a while, SNL seemed like they were going to take over the 3rd place spot (the placement did swap for a very short time at around the 30th hour mark) but the Konoha have stepped up their game, and now maintain a comfortable ~ 1 million point lead.
    The bronze medal contenders are fairly widely spread out, which is not something that we are used to. BUT there are still 24 more hours to go, so we will see how these groups cluster and converge as they fight for that epic armor!

    *Second slide: DPA and their boycott
    The DPA has been playing a much more slower paced game than they are used to. They even took a break from playing (see the flat line at around the 30-35th hour mark?) and it seems like the group enjoyed a collective "nap." The rise of points have been fairly steady, suggesting that they have not broke their oath to boycott. I guess they are showing by example that if you are a non gem spending guild, you can maybe aim for Ribbon B. Of course, I believe all the members at the DPA are super active and already own a few power epics from previous wars.... but hey, at least here is a hard evidence that if you don't spend (or if you don't mooch off from your fellow guild mates who spend), you can't win a medal at the guild war.
    FYI the guild war placement of the DPA have seem to stabilized at around high 30th - low 40th rank.

    * Third slide: Top guild performances compared to the last war
    So I understand that we are not exactly comparing apples to apples here because I'm overlaying a 3 day war result over a 4 day war result. I do intend to show different comparisons when this is all over, but for now, what we have will do.
    It seems like both the RR and Untouchables have slowed down their respective point gain rate a bit, and are taking a less-aggressive path towards their pretty much secured respective 1st and 2nd placements. While the RR started off with very aggressive point scoring (compared to their performance in the last war), they have slowed down significantly, as seen by the noticeably lower slope point gain compared to around the same hour mark in the last war. The untouchables have also slowed down... and if this isn't a proof of how direct competition messes up with people's motivation to spend money I don't know what is. A lot of people do a lot of crazy things because they "just can't lose"

    Konoha and SNL on the other hand, have sparked a 3rd place contention competition, and while it does seem like the fight might be over for good, it is interesting to see that they have found themselves following the trajectory of last guild war's DPA performance fairly closely. This shows to me that these guilds always had the potential to rival the DPA, but perhaps the intimidating presence of DPA discouraged them from entertaining the idea. Yet, in their absence, and in the perceived "easy" aim for the 3rd place, they have sparked a competition and thus created a scenario that makes the 3rd place contention just as difficult. In summary, this is yet another example of how competition can play with your head! (or your credit card)

    Last slide: The rise of the ribbons, and their comparisons from the last war
    The ribbon cut off history have not changed much since the last war, with the exception of ribbon A contenders. Assuming that the gem spenders flock to the top guilds, this goes to show that general game usage for the non-spending mass have remained unchanged. The general mass seems to be unaffected (or oblivious?) to all the complaints made about the war so far (middle of the week, lame rewards, stupid epic armor, etc etc etc).
    I really can't get into the heads of the game makers, but if they thought that the black medal prize would serve as a carrot for the entire game playing population, this tells me that the "masses" are too clever to be fooled into believing that they have a shot at the yummy rewards reserved for few select guilds. Maybe.. just maybe... the "carrot" has to be a bit more attainable if you want people to get excited about the wars (wink wink nudge nudge)
    NOW, about that Ribbon A: I find it a bit odd that despite greater gem discounts (30% off packages as opposed to the usual 20% ya'll) the ribbon A cut line has bee rising significantly slower for this war. Could this be an indication that the gem boycotts have made a dent in the guild wars, or is this simply the effect of the timing, or the "lame" mono spirit armor? I guess we will have to see what happens.

    HEY anything can happen in the last 24 hours! We will see
    Last edited by cafedecoy; 11-02-2013 at 05:09 PM.

  3. #3
    Ahh great war thread! Also, if we didn't stay true to our boycott thread, what would be the point in the boycott . Kudos to the other guilds that decided to join us. Good luck to the rest of the guilds out there!

    DPA

  4. #4

    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    125
    Gree removed the boycott thread. LOL. They seriously must be mad that they lost money. Learn how to market better next time otherwise it will happen again, how does that sound, and yeah i know I will get banned eventually, but why do I not care .

    (btw good thread cafe.)
    Last edited by Sparkle_DPA; 10-31-2013 at 06:18 PM.

  5. #5

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    188
    How petty of Gree. They can pull threads off the forums but can't be bothered to make the GW run smoothly or answer tickets.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by gardibolt View Post
    They can pull threads off the forums but can't be bothered to make the GW run smoothly or answer tickets.

    If you remove all the negative comments... it's as if they were never said at all...

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparkle_DPA View Post
    Gree removed the boycott thread. LOL.
    It's gone? Really? Awww now I can't call you out if you guys *DO* decide to spend gems.

    Oh and thanks
    Last edited by cafedecoy; 10-31-2013 at 07:11 PM.

  8. #8

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by gardibolt View Post
    How petty of Gree. They can pull threads off the forums but can't be bothered to make the GW run smoothly or answer tickets.
    Agreed with your comments

  9. #9
    Aww cafe you actually think we will spend :P?
    Dark
    Prince
    Alliance

    Dropping the hammer on anyone in our path.

  10. #10

    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    136
    Nice slide~
    We are new contender in this war~ lv58 guild with 30members~ so pardon us if we didnt shoot some rocket points, but we definately will be cruising for #3!
    Good luck too all guilds trying to squeeze in top10!

    In game: Miyabi
    Guild: Konoha

  11. #11
    woot nice slide...


    iGn: Tsunade
    Guild: Konoha
    Line: katarina2013

  12. #12

    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    25
    Pride of Konoha

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Dasher18 View Post
    Aww cafe you actually think we will spend :P?

    No, I don't think so. You convinced me. But I can still imagine let my mind wander, right?

  14. #14
    Just a FYI, the RR has now surpassed the 15 million point mark.

    as a comparison, #1 android guild is Majestic at ~4.5 million points.

    I now know that the scoring system is different for the two platforms, but still. A big gap is a big gap, yes?

    I'll be posting new slides later today. Happy warring folks!

  15. #15

    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    1,382
    Quote Originally Posted by gardibolt View Post
    How petty of Gree. They can pull threads off the forums but can't be bothered to make the GW run smoothly or answer tickets.
    Soooo related.

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