The opening rate is the only unknown variable. As far as we are concerned everything is done by a random generator, but the odds to get necklaces are available to us.
Originally Posted by
PawnXIIX
Odds based on how many tokens you have as usual:
0: 100%
1: 90%
2: 80%
3: 70.114% (61 out of 87)
4: 60%
5: 50%
6: 59.82% (67 out of 112)
7: 30.21% (29 out of 96)
8: 30.21% (29 out of 96)
9+: 30.21% (29 out of 96).
I estimate the opening rate for "fair chance" to be around 40% - 45%
Here is a simulation that used an open rate of 40% and a player with level 168
Code:
Box opened: Lockbox token #1 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #2 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #3 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #4 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #5 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #6 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #7 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #8 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #9 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #10 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #11 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #12 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #13 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #14 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #15 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #16 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #17 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #18 gained!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #19 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #20 gained!
Total boxes opened: 46
Total attempts: 106
Total cost: 772800
Process completed.
You can see that there's a lot more fails that successes, but during that time you have much better odds of getting the items than in a collect 10 event. You don't need as many opens to get to the 20th item. In the collect 10 event I opened about 75 boxes and still didn't get the final prize, and this is double the items and half the opens needed.
Code:
--------------------Configuration: Open10Simulation - JDK version 1.6.0_21 <Default> - <Default>--------------------
Box opened: Lockbox token #1 gained!
Box opened: Lockbox token #2 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #3 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #4 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #5 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #6 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #7 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #8 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #9 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #10 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #11 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #12 gained!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #13 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #14 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #15 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #16 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #17 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Other reward found...
Box opened: Lockbox token #18 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #19 gained!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
FAIL!
Box opened: Lockbox token #20 gained!
Total boxes opened: 63
Total attempts: 182
Total cost: 1058400
Process completed.
That's an open rate of 30%, and even then it only takes about a week. That's only 3 days of overtime. You wouldn't even miss the next event. None of this "rigged" nonsense because it's really possible to do this.