Scratcher Odds.

[murf]

Let me know if my math is wrong, but I think it's fairly simple to calculate the odds (assuming Funzio hasn't rigged it)

There are 6 items that can show up: (Car, armor, melee, Gun, $$, RP), so in each slot you have a 1/6 chance to get a certain item. To get the top items, you then need 6 of the same, which is simply 1/6 ^ 6. or 1 in 46,656. Since there are 6 top items, your chances are 6 in 46,656 (1 in 7,776) to get a top reward.
Getting 5 of the same items is 6 x's (1/6)^5 x's (5/6)^1, etc

Summary:

6-items - 1 in 7,776
5-items - 1 in 259
4-items - 1 in 52
3-items - 1 in 10
2-items - 1 in 2

[Luke 3457]

Hmm really crappy odds... I'll do my one a day... If I have 20g left from other purchases then yeah I'll chance it. But the common items don't help me much of at all. I'm sticking with crates to get weapons.

[kykboxr]

Murf, your odds are slightly off, at least on the lower end as everyone is guaranteed to win something as long as they play, and unless the odds have been amended to not reflect what you stated, then you *should* be right. Based on probability, the odds reflect:

n! / (r!*(n-r)!)

[Fredo]

Here is one probability of which we can all be sure: there is no chance Funzio will actually tell us the odds of getting the prizes.

[Dr BoneCrusher]

The other thing you can be shore about is the odds will never better then they are now

[Fredo]

And that scratchers will never be cheaper

[GazLegend]

Let me know if my math is wrong, but I think it's fairly simple to calculate the odds (assuming Funzio hasn't rigged it)

There are 6 items that can show up: (Car, armor, melee, Gun, $$, RP), so in each slot you have a 1/6 chance to get a certain item. To get the top items, you then need 6 of the same, which is simply 1/6 ^ 6. or 1 in 46,656. Since there are 6 top items, your chances are 6 in 46,656 (1 in 7,776) to get a top reward.
Getting 5 of the same items is 6 x's (1/6)^5 x's (5/6)^1, etc

Summary:

6-items - 1 in 7,776
5-items - 1 in 259
4-items - 1 in 52
3-items - 1 in 10
2-items - 1 in 2

I play a lot of poker and this is basically a deck of cards with 6 suits
Math is wrong.

Maximum number of combinations 46,6566

If you want 6 out of 6 odds are:
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/46,656
There are 6 different (suits) giving 6/46,656 or 1 in 7,776

If you want 5 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/any not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/46,656
There are 6 different suits 30/46,656 or 1 in 1,555

If you want 4 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/ not gun/not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 25/46,656
6 suits = 150/46,656 or 1 in 311 or for you % fans 0.32%

3 out of 6:
1/62 or 1.6%

2 out of 6
1/12.4 or 8%

I think

[andymac106]

I play a lot of poker and this is basically a deck of cards with 6 suits
Math is wrong.

Maximum number of combinations 46,6566

If you want 6 out of 6 odds are:
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/46,656
There are 6 different (suits) giving 6/46,656 or 1 in 7,776

If you want 5 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/any not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/46,656
There are 6 different suits 30/46,656 or 1 in 1,555

If you want 4 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/ not gun/not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 25/46,656
6 suits = 150/46,656 or 1 in 311 or for you % fans 0.32%

3 out of 6:
1/62 or 1.6%

2 out of 6
1/12.4 or 8%

I think

Im going to agree with you due to the 1/1555 fact for 5 not 1/259. If 259 were true the odds of winning would be so much better and pretty much everyone would be spending their gold on scrathers

[murf]

I play a lot of poker and this is basically a deck of cards with 6 suits
Math is wrong.

Maximum number of combinations 46,6566

If you want 6 out of 6 odds are:
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/46,656
There are 6 different (suits) giving 6/46,656 or 1 in 7,776

If you want 5 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/gun/any not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/46,656
There are 6 different suits 30/46,656 or 1 in 1,555

If you want 4 out of 6
Gun/gun/gun/gun/ not gun/not gun
1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 25/46,656
6 suits = 150/46,656 or 1 in 311 or for you % fans 0.32%

3 out of 6:
1/62 or 1.6%

2 out of 6
1/12.4 or 8%

I think

I may be wrong, but I don't think this is right...The odds only add up to about 9%

[enahs1]

I think that is right, I believe to get the grand prize (6 matching) it would be 1/6^6 which equals a .002143347 percent chance.

[G Wiz]

where is nicholost

[Odie]

Does anybody know how to get the scratcher back up? I downloaded the update, which launched the scratcher...and nerfed the event. Then the event fixed itself, but I don't see where you get the scratcher back...maybe I am missing something.

Anyway, first free scratch was trip respect for 1,000 respect...i'll take it.

[enahs1]

Under the special tab

[Odie]

Nice thanks for the feedback.

[murf]

I think that is right, I believe to get the grand prize (6 matching) it would be 1/6^6 which equals a .002143347 percent chance.

Yeah, that's the easy one...I think 2 out of 6 is the one we need to solve...kykboxr's formula looks right (I think it's the binomial theorem) but I forget how to apply it correctly.