New Dataset

[mxz]

Not even trying to hide the events as gold grabs anymore

Anyone want to run the analysis on how much stats a box event could generate with those amounts of gold? I have a feeling these are bad "investments" on their own.

[murf]

Not even trying to hide the events as gold grabs anymore

Anyone want to run the analysis on how much stats a box event could generate with those amounts of gold? I have a feeling these are bad "investments" on their own.

Yeah, you are probably right. But my guess is you will see increased spending if it's a collect 10 event this week. Now, you're guaranteed one prize with the shot at another. If it's collect-20, I'm not sure if you'll see that much more.

[Peppers]

I have the same question as cooch...

Any of you prognosticators know if there's a gold sale soon?

[PawnXIIX]

See? Doesn't this sound like GREE is going to make tons of money off this deal?

[cooch]

Just saw the splash screen. No discounts on gold. Probably an experiment from mktg to see how much real money is made on such events. I bet they finally figured out that crate spending went down with such loser awards. It should have jumped up last week with better awards.

Now they will see how much moola is spent with no sales then perhaps try a sale. My guess is that the % differential will be minimal but more buyers with a sale. Therefore for those competent programmers out there: Can they track this information down to this level in terms on tracking loyalty to spending gold vs discounts?

As a business Gree should only focus on consistent gold spenders and how to hook them into staying on...I think they ran bad events in last three months of last year mixed with better ones to demonstrate profitability potential.

[PawnXIIX]

Eh, plenty of time on that (also...not in the dataset)...

Just ran the odds on the collect-20 looking thing. Definitely harder to do than the collect-10s.

Without posting everything, if it works like a collect-10, you'll need to expect to open ~297 boxes successfully. By contrast, collect-10's you expect to need only ~79 successful opens.

This is the open rates for the camera case event. Notice anything strange about the numbers?

{1.0, .9, .8, .7, .6, .5, .4, 1.0, 60.0/1010.0, .02}

I'll give you a hint.

Chance of getting lockbox item when item total is:
0: 100%
1: 90%
2: 80%
3: 70%
4: 60%
5: 50%
6: 40%
7: 100%
8: 5.94%
9: 2%

I got excited when I got number 8 right after I got number 7 - which had taken me about 15 tries to get. Now I understand exactly why this happened. Simulation is coming right after this post - I'm just writing it up quickly.

[PawnXIIX]

According to what I'm reading when you have 7, and you go for the 8th open there is a 1000/1009 chance it will be an item IF you open it successfully. The free open was I think somewhere around maybe 30% chance if you're giving it that much leeway.

That chart is when you have X amount of the item you are collecting, you have y chance of the open giving you the item we are collecting.

The only thing spending gold and the in game cash on affects is the rate at which you open them. You can still expect the same item rate if you spend gold or open them for free.

...[and a logic error just crashed my IDE]

[Ak Killah]

GreeD Really going for the squeeze

[haywood]

I have the same question as cooch...

Any of you prognosticators know if there's a gold sale soon?

Typically its at the end of the month, like the 25th or so. I bought some Ammo crates way back and then bought some of the last crates because they were pretty good. I was thinking about getting some of the new Street Life crates as they are decent and I'd maybe spend a vault then looking at the fact that just 500 more would get me the Wild Ride and Aggressor Blade, but +1 respect from fights isn't very enticing to say the least as I have 154k respect point right now collecting dust. Then I think about the fact that I just got the AstroTurf Shredder (1000/825) AND Sharpened Cleats (170/230) for a whopping 110 gold it kinda makes these prizes look silly. I am gonna get a few crates though but don't see myself going "all out" for these. Pffff, the 10,000 gold is totally out of the question. I do like how they are offering new ideas and such but.........No

[GQNammmer]

As a business Gree should only focus on consistent gold spenders and how to hook them into staying on...I think they ran bad events in last three months of last year mixed with better ones to demonstrate profitability potential.

Any business that focuses only on their current client base will at best maintain their profitability from one quarter to another but more than likely the sales will drop. Try telling your shareholders that all the products you're releasing is focused primarily on your current clientele.

[gunny22]

Not even trying to hide the events as gold grabs anymore

Now look, there has been some serious whining here on the forum by people who didn't succeed in opening the final box, even by big gold spenders. This finally is a way to please these people: no more chance involved: you know the price, pay it or leave it.

[cooch]

According to what I'm reading when you have 7, and you go for the 8th open there is a 1000/1009 chance it will be an item IF you open it successfully. The free open was I think somewhere around maybe 30% chance if you're giving it that much leeway.

That chart is when you have X amount of the item you are collecting, you have y chance of the open giving you the item we are collecting.

The only thing spending gold and the in game cash on affects is the rate at which you open them. You can still expect the same item rate if you spend gold or open them for free.

...[and a logic error just crashed my IDE]

Thanks for the in-depth analysis and odds of getting the 10th. Odds must be much worse on collect 20

[cooch]

Any business that focuses only on their current client base will at best maintain their profitability from one quarter to another but more than likely the sales will drop. Try telling your shareholders that all the products you're releasing is focused primarily on your current clientele.

Sorry, what I meant to say is I think the new mgmt wanted proof of value/mktg strategy after Funzio bought. Also were some of mktg staff or whomever creates events and revenue cut in layoffs? Any change of mgmt I've been associated with if they don't see the results they want they either ask for proof or try things another way. In this business they get answers pretty quickly.

You're right, they need to hook new players and keep the paying ones happy, your guess as good as mine or better if they are succeeding. This current event is definitely a test ballon

And by the way if you interpreted my msg as current clientele you are wrong. New players that spend (wouldn't you on this new event to catch up or be on top of your level if you had $$) will latch on as well as the current spenders. Yes if you don't focus on the paying customers and keep the freebie/freeloaders happy you got some 'splaining to do to mgmt team. Consistent gold spenders means anyone willing to spend from Day 1 and beyond if you were confused with statement.

[PawnXIIX]

On the note of my findings, assuming that the opening rate is 50% will get you all 10 items in 50 or so opens on average.

That was using the data for the camera case.

This was the racing engine odds by engines owned:

0: 100%
1: 90%
2: 80%
3: 70.11%
4: 60%
5: 50%
6: 40.18%
7: 30.21%
8: 30.21%
9+: 30.21%

[murf]

On the note of my findings, assuming that the opening rate is 50% will get you all 10 items in 50 or so opens on average.

That was using the data for the camera case.

This was the racing engine odds by engines owned:

0: 100%
1: 90%
2: 80%
3: 70.11%
4: 60%
5: 50%
6: 40.18%
7: 30.21%
8: 30.21%
9+: 30.21%

Can you post the distribution of your results? The cumulative distribution function would be nice to see. Cool analysis....