Worn Box Event has started! - Page 7

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Thread: Worn Box Event has started!

  1. #91
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    I am at 6 compasses out of 26 tries to open boxes.

    In this event my overall open rate is 33% (success of open regardless of content with middle options only). My true success rate (success of getting a compass on all open tries) is 22%. And my success to open rate (success of getting compass when box was opened) is 67%. The last number will probably change as the event goes on but these numbers are all similar to last events for me.

  2. #92
    Consistent Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Talkazar View Post
    @ GFF I'll give you the bad news now. At 15-17 opens a day, you can expect around 15 unless you are lucky (or they've fiddled with the drop rate again). Spectra has got into the top 250 twice, once with slight gem assistance, the other with exceptional luck, but he (when he has network access :P) opens 20 a day. Just managing expections.
    I'd be happy with 15 since my previous high is 11. I acknowledge that I'll need quite a bit of luck, but I'm putting quite a bit more time into this one that I have the last half dozen or so of these events. I know 250 is a pipe dream, but 20 sure would be nice.

  3. #93
    Steady Scribe
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    May 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by echus14 View Post
    Are you using rusty knife or gold?
    Gold, every time. Ended up 0 for 34.

    Still effingpissed.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Durwood View Post
    Gold, every time. Ended up 0 for 34.

    Still effingpissed.
    they secretly put hooks in the game to check for your userID to screw with you for
    complaining so much....

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Durwood View Post
    Gold, every time. Ended up 0 for 34.

    Still effingpissed.
    That is in fact hard to believe

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guido69 View Post
    That is in fact hard to believe
    I dont know the rates on the Gold open, but Id imagine if you
    multiplied all the chances of that happening 34 times in a row
    you'd probably be in the range of winning the lottery with that
    streak.

  7. #97
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    Jul 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Red View Post
    I dont know the rates on the Gold open, but Id imagine if you
    multiplied all the chances of that happening 34 times in a row
    you'd probably be in the range of winning the lottery with that
    streak.
    In my experience over the last 5 box events the chances of opening a box with the middle option are about 30-35%.

  8. #98
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    Jul 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Red View Post
    I dont know the rates on the Gold open, but Id imagine if you
    multiplied all the chances of that happening 34 times in a row
    you'd probably be in the range of winning the lottery with that
    streak.
    In fact the chance of that happening is about 0.000073% (assuming a 66% chance of not opening the box every time).

  9. #99
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    @ 30% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 185k (assuming my math is right)
    @ 20% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 1972 (assuming my math is right)
    @ 10% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 36 (assuming my math is right)


    Odds of someone stretching the truth on the internet to fit their argument: ___________
    Last edited by The_Red; 08-28-2012 at 10:49 AM.

  10. #100
    Consistent Contributor
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    Jul 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_red View Post
    odds of someone stretching the truth on the internet to fit their argument: ___________
    priceless!

  11. #101
    Steady Scribe
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    May 2012
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    58
    Quote Originally Posted by The_Red View Post
    they secretly put hooks in the game to check for your userID to screw with you for
    complaining so much....
    Don't think I didn't think about that! Except - there is NOTHING to connect me in this forum to my user ID.
    And...when you are getting COMPLETELY SCREWED, it is no longer called COMPLAINING, but rather, pointing out OBVIOUS disparities!

    =)

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guido69 View Post
    That is in fact hard to believe
    Listen, I know it is hard to believe, but I wouldn't have posted it if it didn't happen.

    0 for 34. No gold. No Hero Points. 34 consecutive "Sorry Try Again's"

  13. #103
    Steady Scribe
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    May 2012
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    58
    Quote Originally Posted by The_Red View Post
    @ 30% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 185k (assuming my math is right)
    @ 20% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 1972 (assuming my math is right)
    @ 10% average = odds of 34 unsuccessful opens = 1 out of 36 (assuming my math is right)


    Odds of someone stretching the truth on the internet to fit their argument: ___________
    That is funny - and I do agree with your joke on the hyperbole of the internet....

    ...but I swear it happened. In fact, I'm going to email GREE and nicely ask how it could have happened.

  14. #104
    Verbose Veteran echus14's Avatar
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    @Durwood
    34 gold attempts without anything IS awful and quite incredible, but I would also point out that 34 attempts in the time elapsed so far is quite low ... a lot of people are trying 20-22 times out of every 24 hours.

    Still, I suppose if a person can win the big prize in something like the Powerball lottery, then the opposite must also be true. My suggestions are switch to rusty knife (a little surprised you have not done so already) and do NOT buy any property or other high value items, get married, travel overseas, start a business or procreate at this time
    Last edited by echus14; 08-28-2012 at 07:28 PM.
    Proud Member of the


    KA - 358177252

    Honora ante Fidem, Fides ante Ego
    (Honour before Loyalty, Loyalty before Self)

    "If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything." - Wiseman, Sucker Punch

  15. #105
    Verbose Veteran MaverickMunkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Durwood View Post
    Listen, I know it is hard to believe, but I wouldn't have posted it if it didn't happen.

    0 for 34. No gold. No Hero Points. 34 consecutive "Sorry Try Again's"
    It may be worth deleting and reinstalling the game to reset the data.

    Once reloaded, you may find that things change.

    Ave Atque Vale

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