I am at 6 compasses out of 26 tries to open boxes.
In this event my overall open rate is 33% (success of open regardless of content with middle options only). My true success rate (success of getting a compass on all open tries) is 22%. And my success to open rate (success of getting compass when box was opened) is 67%. The last number will probably change as the event goes on but these numbers are all similar to last events for me.