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  1. #1

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    Gold Chest Bonus question for Mods

    So I know it says there is a 20% increased chance of getting something that isn't a rare but I don't know what the starting % is for getting one. I assume rare units carry a higher weight in the RNG but how much? Can one of the mods enlighten us on the regular chances of getting a SR or UR unit?

    Just to clarify I will give an example, greatly simplified. Let's say when you open the gold chest you are going to get a letter in the alphabet. Vowels are worth more (vowels are UR and SR). For each A how many Bs are in the pot? Are my chances of getting a vowel 5/26, 5/47, 5/94....... Since there are more consonants than vowels I get that it is less likely they will show up but I want to know if the Bs are counted 2 times for every A or 5 time and so on.

    I hope my question made sense and if not I can elaborate. I am looking forward to a response from a mod even if it is "not sure I will ask", "we don't give that info"(really hope that's not what I get).
    Thanks!

  2. #2

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    I have asked this question many times. So far, Gree has chosen not to enlighten us. The odds are vanishingly small. They just had a special guaranteeing ONE SR unit in every 11 gold warchests. Less than 10%. And that was a "special." So, far less than 10% normally would be the obvious conclusion I guess. Add a 20% higher chance to the 10% offered in the special and you get a 10.2% chance. It's definitely not even that high normally. It's very misleading.

  3. #3
    Ratma2001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KCjamss View Post
    So I know it says there is a 20% increased chance of getting something that isn't a rare but I don't know what the starting % is for getting one. I assume rare units carry a higher weight in the RNG but how much? Can one of the mods enlighten us on the regular chances of getting a SR or UR unit?

    Just to clarify I will give an example, greatly simplified. Let's say when you open the gold chest you are going to get a letter in the alphabet. Vowels are worth more (vowels are UR and SR). For each A how many Bs are in the pot? Are my chances of getting a vowel 5/26, 5/47, 5/94....... Since there are more consonants than vowels I get that it is less likely they will show up but I want to know if the Bs are counted 2 times for every A or 5 time and so on.

    I hope my question made sense and if not I can elaborate. I am looking forward to a response from a mod even if it is "not sure I will ask", "we don't give that info"(really hope that's not what I get).
    Thanks!
    You wont get an answer for this , this is one of the Super Secrets that only Devs have ....but in saying that i would assume 1/260 maybe more!
    it normally works by what you already have so if you have 3 (Vowels) then you chance just dropped to say 1/780 rather than 2 at 1/520 and so on, we studied this in KA and the more you have the less you get , so you have to keep spending more to get less, or they give you less to get more either way the system works against you.
    but you have already given them the answer you want .
    put it this way i used to spend $700 a month on KA was mighty powerful , got sick took of a month came back and was millions behind ! so spending went out the door i just play the game now, i dont spend that amount maybe $20 here and there but it has to be justified to spend...spend 600 gold bars get 1 SR = Sucker Repeated ...everytime you spend you get diddly squat unless new Chest or set of new units .
    good luck

  4. #4

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    I don't know what the usual odds are, but with the 20% bonus, its still not great, and I would also point out that I think certain less desirable SR/UR units are much more common than those SR/UR units we actually want. I opened 30 chests today - all from saved keys, nothing purchased - and received 1 UR (Brasides) and 2 SR (one Hestatus Prime and one Gebel I). None of these are likely to make it into my squad anytime soon, but at least this time I actually received UR/SR units. The last time they had one of these 'increased' chance offerings I opened 18 gold chests and received 18 completely useless Rs.

    Based on the last 48 golds I've opened, I've received 1 UR and 2 SR (i.e., about a 2% chance of UR; 4% chance of SR) and these were both during the increased chance offerings. So in actuality, I don't think their 20% increase does much: 20% of 2% or 20% of 4% is not much of an increase.

  5. #5

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    That's not a huge surprise that the chances are very low. I don't mind that the good units are hard to get but I think if their promotion is based off of a percentage increase they would be able to share what the normal percentages are. 20% of 1 is a huge difference between 20% of 10. I just find something off about saying x will increase your chances x% during the promotion verses your chances will be x% of getting x during the promotion. Without both numbers it is not possible to figure out if it is worth it or not.

    I have played Modern War for most of this year so if I am being tested to see when I will spend money on this game it will be a long wait. Can't afford MW and LoW. It is nice to know that the worse my units are the higher my chances for better ones is because I'm still new and am trying to build a decent squad.

    I did end up using the 4 gold keys I have gotten over the last two weeks and ended up with 4 rare units. Of the four 1 was an ok one and the rest I used to train it so I could promote my other one.

    If someone from Gree could chime in that would be great but until then I would be interested in hearing what others have seen as far as opening gold chests.

  6. #6
    SpartanPhalanx's Avatar
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    Their last offer, guaranteeing at least one SR for every 11 Chests opened, was an admission that under normal circumstances it would be entirely possible to open 11 and not get a single SR or UR.

    This current offer - I am not sure what "20% Bonus" means. If it means a 20% better chance of getting an SR or UR, then instead of 1 in 15 say, it would become 1.2 in 15, in other words, an insignificant improvement.

  7. #7

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    Yes it sparked my curiosity as to what the base number is.

    Gree, giving us some idea of probabilities will not hurt your sales! Tons of people buy lottery tickets and those odds are posted on the tickets. I'm sure they are no where near that bad.

  8. #8
    SpartanPhalanx's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KCjamss View Post
    Yes it sparked my curiosity as to what the base number is.

    Gree, giving us some idea of probabilities will not hurt your sales! Tons of people buy lottery tickets and those odds are posted on the tickets. I'm sure they are no where near that bad.
    They will never reveal the probabilities. They want us to think that we stand a better chance than we actually do. Their entire business model for this game is based around an assumption that the vast majority of players are ignorant and stupid.

  9. #9

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    Well they may not be wrong. No where have I found a large group of people that doesn't consist of a larger than you would think group of idiots.

    Knowing the odds won't change how I play or spend.

  10. #10

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    lol...the odds are like one in a million.

    now they're 1.2 in a million.

    just have fun.

    this game is also about to die...ah gree; when will you figure it out?

  11. #11

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    rat - are you still playing KA or did you finally retire

  12. #12

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    Never played KA only MW. From what I hear we are in a similar situation as KA. Little works correct, mods say to contact support and support doesn't respond, many unable to log in. Well to be fair I am using today's examples. That's why I started to check out LoW.

    I have been stuck on one of the invasion levels for 36 hrs but since I won't spend on this game I am happy to keep trying.

  13. #13
    We can do the math ourselves if we collect enough data. I just used 23 gold keys got one UR and three SRs, please post what you get and we can caculte the odds. Until Gree changes them.

  14. #14

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    I opened 10 gold warchests, from gold bars, not keys. I got 1 SR unit. This was not during the 1 in 11 special, it was during the 20% "bonus" special. I opened four chests from gold keys over a period of a couple of days and got 2 SR units and 1 UR unit, which has never happened to me before. They weren't great units: an Ikenga, 2 Revolutions Purity drones (I already have one of these promoted to 50--wish there was a way to exchange them because I'm sure someone would like to have them), and a Cleo tank. It seems like once in a great, great while you can hit a cluster of SR or UR units, but there are very long droughts in between. I can't remember getting this many SR or UR units ever before and I don't expect to have it happen again anytime soon. It's just pure luck of the draw. I'm not sure you can calculate the odds accurately because there seem to be outliers. But you can probably come up with an average. Is like to know why a so-called random program will dump 4 Apollo nukes in a row on you or, as happened to me the other day, two Revolution's Purity drones in something like 6 chances.

  15. #15
    43 gold keys = 5sr units, a dozen or 15 Apollo nukes, great bombards and a lot of useless R units except a hasteus prime I wanted.. The SR` were nothing special either.. Such a shame, with these low odds (even with an additional 20%) why would anyone wanna spend money?...

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