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  1. #1
    SpartanPhalanx's Avatar
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    Are The Keys Random?

    I have played this game for about 6 months now, and have reached level 250, and over that period I must have won thousands of Bronze Keys, hundreds of Silver Keys, and scores of Gold Keys. And altogether, how many UR units have they yielded? JUST ONE! And not a very good one either! Now they keep telling us that it is all random, and so that should indeed be the case, but I have studied Statistics, and I know what random looks like, and just one UR from that lot does not look like random to me! By my reckoning I should have had about 10 UR by now. What do you guys think?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanPhalanx View Post
    I have played this game for about 6 months now, and have reached level 250, and over that period I must have won thousands of Bronze Keys, hundreds of Silver Keys, and scores of Gold Keys. And altogether, how many UR units have they yielded? JUST ONE! And not a very good one either! Now they keep telling us that it is all random, and so that should indeed be the case, but I have studied Statistics, and I know what random looks like, and just one UR from that lot does not look like random to me! By my reckoning I should have had about 10 UR by now. What do you guys think?
    Depends on what you mean by random. Every time you open a chest, you have a very high chance of receiving training fodder; and every time you open a chest, you have an extraordinarily low chance of receiving a UR unit of any kind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eagleProphet View Post
    Depends on what you mean by random. Every time you open a chest, you have a very high chance of receiving training fodder; and every time you open a chest, you have an extraordinarily low chance of receiving a UR unit of any kind.
    In Statistics "random" means that there is no bias in the process. You should have an equal chance of getting any one of all the units on offer. Of course, because there are fewer UR units over all, you will get those less often. But over time you should end up with the same percentage. If only 10 percent of units are UR, then eventually roughly 10 percent of what you get should be UR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanPhalanx View Post
    In Statistics "random" means that there is no bias in the process. You should have an equal chance of getting any one of all the units on offer. Of course, because there are fewer UR units over all, you will get those less often. But over time you should end up with the same percentage. If only 10 percent of units are UR, then eventually roughly 10 percent of what you get should be UR.
    I don't think its random in the sense you are thinking about it. They don't put one of every unit in the game into a bucket and the RNG spits one of them out. I think each unit is given a weight and they have some calculations as to when it gets divvied out. There's a reason that its much easier to get useless 'Janbaya' or 'Peoples Dagger' Rares instead of a nice big Janissary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJCJ View Post
    I don't think its random in the sense you are thinking about it. They don't put one of every unit in the game into a bucket and the RNG spits one of them out. I think each unit is given a weight and they have some calculations as to when it gets divvied out. There's a reason that its much easier to get useless 'Janbaya' or 'Peoples Dagger' Rares instead of a nice big Janissary.
    Yes, you are exactly right. But there is no confusion about what RANDOM means. They claim that the process is random when clearly it isn't.
    Take a look at Gold Keys only. We don't know the exact numbers, but let's be generous to Gree and say that the distribution is as follows - 70 percent of all units available are Rare, 20 percent are SuperRare, and only 10 percent are UltraRare. If the process is truly random, then based on those numbers we would still expect to get, on average, one UR from every 10 Gold Chests that we open. Or put another way, 100 Gold Chests should give you, on average, about 70 Rare units, 20 SR, and 10 UR. But of course, as we know, nobody is being that successful. There is a strong bias against us getting SR and UR units, and a strong bias in favour of us getting the rubbishy Rare units.
    Now if that's the way Gree want to operate, that's fine. But they should stop insulting our intelligence by claiming that it's all random when, as I said, it clearly isn't.

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    It's as random as the powerball lottery. It's the poor odds that you are really complaining about.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by eagleProphet View Post
    It's as random as the powerball lottery. It's the poor odds that you are really complaining about.
    That is not correct. It is not random at all, it is rigged. What percentage of units are UltraRare? Unless you know that you cannot calculate the odds. One thing is for sure - the odds should be better than one in a hundred, which is what I have been getting.

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    Latest news - can you believe this?! My last 4 Gold Keys have yielded - Apollo Nuke, Apollo Nuke, Great Bombard, Great Bombard! You couldn't make it up! Are they taking the piss?!

  9. #9
    ouch, that's gotta feel like a complete waste of your time.

    personally I've found saving 10 gold keys at a time are the way to go before redeeming. I often get 1 or 2 super rare and half the time 1 ultra rare. I've experienced similar results though in their double opportunity good chest giveaways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patches View Post
    ouch, that's gotta feel like a complete waste of your time.

    personally I've found saving 10 gold keys at a time are the way to go before redeeming. I often get 1 or 2 super rare and half the time 1 ultra rare. I've experienced similar results though in their double opportunity good chest giveaways.
    It would take me weeks to save 10 Gold Keys. And in the meantime, waiting behind that first key, could be a great unit that I could have been using throughout that period.
    There is no logical reason why saving them up should produce a better outcome. Sounds like you've just been very lucky.

    I have never understood the business model for this game. They want us to spend real money, to buy Gold Bars, to buy Gold Keys, but as we all know, from bitter experience, the chances of getting anything really good from a Gold Key are ridiculously low. So there is no incentive to spend.

    Every other game I have ever played has always had a Store where you could buy specific items. This is the only game I have ever encountered where they expect you to buy a ticket in a very expensive lottery and just hope for the best.

  11. #11
    Yes, it takes a week and a half to 2 weeks to save 10 keys. Redeem everytime if you want, but I'm certain your results will be poor getting Rares that are useless. This game is a marathon whether liked or not, no sprints here.

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    I'm a hoarder. Currently, I have 30 gold keys, 50 silver and 53 bronze.

  13. #13
    It would be good to know if there is difference between several at one time or one at a time. For silver and bronze keys I have not noticed a difference.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by eagleProphet View Post
    I'm a hoarder. Currently, I have 30 gold keys, 50 silver and 53 bronze.
    What a waste! Just think of all the good units that could be waiting there for you, that you could be using to win even more keys and prizes!

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanPhalanx View Post
    What a waste! Just think of all the good units that could be waiting there for you, that you could be using to win even more keys and prizes!
    I don't think it's a waste. I have 12 gold keys, 40 silver and 50 bronze. It's pointless to open chests and get a bunch of useless uncommon and rare units. I have over 200 uncommon and rare units already that are waiting to be used to feed units to promote them (if I ever get a worthwhile UR unit).

    I'm holding onto my keys in hopes Gree will allow me to turn in bronze keys to get silver, then silver to get gold. And maybe change the odds and grant more SR and UR units. Just a thought, but imagine 10 bronze for 1 silver and 10 silver for 1 gold.

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