Mahabharata crates [iOS / US Servers]

Opening the standard Mahabharata crate gives one of 6 possible items. One is of course the new top-notch commander giving the crate it's name.

All 6 items are listed as "EPIC", which make you think the chance of getting a Mahabharata recruit is 1/6. However, based on input from players opening this crate, it seems that the chance is much lower, only 1 crate in the 60 or so opened contained the Mahabharata recruit.

In the past, crates have contained "EPIC", "RARE", "UNCOMMON" and "COMMON" categories of items. This is very informative and accurately informs the player that the chance of getting an "EPIC" item might be a lot lower than a "COMMON" item.

Please, if the chance of one item (or category of items) is much lower than another, give it the "EPIC" tag while the other more common items are listed with the "RARE", "UNCOMMON" (and so on) tags.

If possible, it would be even more helpful of listing the actual chance, such as 1/60 for the Mahabharata recruit. I know this has been an issue for a long time, and hiding the actual chance of getting an item is probably for a reason. But the all-epic tags on 6 items is very misleading, it would be nice if that got fixed at least.

I know of people opening few hundred crates and never get the "top prize".

IMO the reason for some players not being able to get Mahabarata's is just dealing with probability.

There's a 1/6 chance of getting Mahabarata per crate. If you open another one, it is another 1/6 chance. Try not to think about it as having a guaranteed Mahabarata for 6 crates, because the probability ratio, 1/6, stays constant for each box you open. There is a much higher chance of getting another item that may not be what you want, which has a probability ratio of 5/6 every single time you open a box.

Yes it is just probability. And if I'm not mistaken, if the probability really is 1/6 to get a Mahabharata out of a standard crate then my comrades in world W31 are the unluckiest people alive.

Failing 71 out of 72 tries (yes I got some more statistics) given a 1/6 chance of success is 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 ... (fail repeated 71 times) * 1/6 (one success) = 1 in 2.5 million. I think that is proof enough that the chance of getting a Mahabharata recruit off the standard crate is extremely low. Not anywhere near 1/6, that's for sure.

You are dealing with gree here, giving face value odds has never been their style.
It may appear you have 1/6 chance but it may just be a numbers result 1-95 you get junk 96-100 you get what your actually after..

Are you sure it is 1/6 chance? I really don't think so.

Even if you take it as 1/6, do you know what the probability is of getting zero mahabs if I try say 50 times? It is not 5/6. Probability of a single event and probability of sequential events are calculated differently.

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Originally Posted by Lolsies

IMO the reason for some players not being able to get Mahabarata's is just dealing with probability.

There's a 1/6 chance of getting Mahabarata per crate. If you open another one, it is another 1/6 chance. Try not to think about it as having a guaranteed Mahabarata for 6 crates, because the probability ratio, 1/6, stays constant for each box you open. There is a much higher chance of getting another item that may not be what you want, which has a probability ratio of 5/6 every single time you open a box.

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Assuming everyone gets one 1 mahab after opening 72 crates, the probability of 1 mahab from 1 crate can be calculated as around 1/5000 and not 1/6.

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Originally Posted by ThisGameSucks

Yes it is just probability. And if I'm not mistaken, if the probability really is 1/6 to get a Mahabharata out of a standard crate then my comrades in world W31 are the unluckiest people alive.

Failing 71 out of 72 tries (yes I got some more statistics) given a 1/6 chance of success is 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 ... (fail repeated 71 times) * 1/6 (one success) = 1 in 2.5 million. I think that is proof enough that the chance of getting a Mahabharata recruit off the standard crate is extremely low. Not anywhere near 1/6, that's for sure.

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what use have these socalled "moderators"?

they know nothing..

stating the chance is 1/6 is very naive

it is simply not true

the big trick is, you can never prove it, only assume it from statistics

Ok read the iTunes rules, the way the crates give out rewards is Gambling, as the cost is directly related to real money! iTunes forbides gambling as does the USA on line....

Which Rule is that?

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Originally Posted by cherlock

what use have these socalled "moderators"?

they know nothing..

stating the chance is 1/6 is very naive

it is simply not true

the big trick is, you can never prove it, only assume it from statistics

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?

You say it's not true, yet you say you can't prove that it's false either?

Of course, I know that 1/6 is inaccurate. I simply said that as an example. Other games raise and decrease certain probabilities of getting something, so the same thing is probably applied to these crates.

Can you prove that it is 1/6? You are the one who first asserted that it was 1/6 so the burden is on you to prove it.

"He who asserts must prove."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Lolsies

?

You say it's not true, yet you say you can't prove that it's false either?

Of course, I know that 1/6 is inaccurate. I simply said that as an example. Other games raise and decrease certain probabilities of getting something, so the same thing is probably applied to these crates.

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I would have no trouble with this if the crate did state that the Mahabharata is "EPIC" and the other items possible to get from the crate are "COMMON". I would immediately draw the conclusion that the Mahabharata is very rare and that I would have to open a lot of them to get the top prize. As I said in the original post, listing all items as "EPIC" gives the illusion of a 1/6 chance, which is false. Having played the game for a long time, I called out on world chat and asked all players to pm me the number of crates they opened and how many Mahabharata comms they got. I stopped counting at 72 crates and 1 Mahabharata. That result was posted here and on world chat, many people got upset that the chance was so incredibly low to get the top Prize. That upset WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED if the items in the crate were properly tagged.

I've had my fair share of email wars with Gree/Funzio over this from the very start when we would buy Epic crates to try and get 20/50 comms which we would never get.
The response I got, as you will get, is 'everytime you try to open a crate, the odds are reset'. That is the only thing Gree/Funzio will say on this subject, probably because anything other would be in breach of iTunes T&Cs.

Talking about iTunes T&Cs, iTunes doesn't give a flying banana about Gree/Funzio breaching their guidelines. Gree/Funzio is a Billion dollar outfit, iTunes would be mad to lose their business.

I forgot to mention, to make matters worse, if you open a Mahabaratara Crate now it has 6000 stars compared to the previous commanders who only had 3000 stars, go figure.....