I seem to get a better chance halfway through the 15 min intervals instead of on it, hardly got one using that method you are talking about... hmmmmmm...
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Like i said i haven't personally tested it. I do know that when i actually time my opens is when i have the least chance of success. So if i open the second that my timer expires and allows me to open up a new crate it almost always gives me a "sorry". Which is the reason i think people pay Gold to open instead of just opening with cash and paying gold to reset timer.
Ok I see there, I would rather wait then have a certain chance of getting something, Eiffel or not instead of wasting all your cash just to find a "sorry" over and over again. But I did just open one the second I could, halfway though the interval and got my 8th Eiffel so I don't know if this is just lucky or a stratergy to do, so you would open at :07, :23 :37 or :53. So far it has worked with :07 and :53, someone else will have to try the others though
Got my first 7 Towers for cash...then used Gold for 8th...then nothing but Crete,cash,valor,tank buster,BS ships for 2 days. Then pops up 9th one by cash opening....funny isn't it....spent not more than 300 gold so far.
But one very general observation is while raiding hundreds of rivals I have only come across like 3-5 players possessing the 10th loot. Concluding Gree is not gonna give it any easy,cash or gold way !!!
I know....its one of those units i really would like to have.
However i'm on the fence. Hearing that you have spent almost 4k gold and not gotten it is certainly something to take note of. (I haven't even aquired enough crates for that...or come close to it even with the BP tournament)
I know the probability of opening the 10th Crate is somewhere between 1-2% (Quote that dates back to the time of CJ).
Assuming that information still holds that means the average person needs to spend 3000 gold to get the 10th item. (as i'm going to assume it's really just over 1%) Obviously that doesn't garuntee you anything...just shows you what the average person needs to spend.
315 gold = 21 gold open took me right to 10/10. Best box event ever. Ever!
I got 9 boxes open not one bit of gold purchased more than enough time to open the 10 box yall crazy spending real money on a game i hope none of u heavy gold purchasers ever go broke or come up on hard times cuz gree dont give refunds.
Hahah back in May of 2012 they offered a Ground Unit with 20-30% more ground defense and i reached 9 Parts and had 5 days and 19 hour remaining. (They gave a whole week for the event)
I had over 100 open attempts as it was absolutely incredible unit (even by todays standards) but i never say 10. (I even tried to go into overtime).
Actually i have opened up ten everytime except twice once was for the 30% percent off all construction and another time when the reward wasnt worth it. Medium chance or low chance only, got me to the top 10 in box events for over a year and some months.
It took me about 1300 gold to get 10. I figure if I bought all the LE units available right now, it would cost me 1415 gold, and the most I could get from that is 4478/2411 increase in stats (with rare unit). The final unit in this event gives me a 14000/11773 boost in stats plus 15% boost in air defense. That's not including the units for towers 3, 5, 7 and 9 as well as all the units, cash, and concrete from boxes that didn't have towers. To me it was well worth it. However, if I dropped 3k+ gold it'd be a little tougher to justify.
As an Insomniac and someone who always uses Cash opens who hadn't gotten 10 up until 6 months ago let me tell you that you have been very lucky. Generally i average 17-18 opens per day during the events and almost always got 9...but 10 would generally never be seen.