Crate Event Statistics

[Mikethegreat88]

I don’t remember ever seeing a crate post that ACCURATELY tracked crate opening statistics. We all have bad luck stories. In fact, I had a streak of 10 “better luck next time” during this event.

Knowing your odds is important if deciding whether to pay gold for timer resets + 100% (gold) opens, or timer resets + cash open. If the odds of opening a crate with cash is 50%, then it doesn’t matter which you choose.

For my test, I did all CASH opens, and immediately took a screenshot so I could go on with whatever I was doing and record the data later. I did run out of time in the end and used 5 timer resets + cash opens before getting 8/8 (I got very lucky!) I know spending gold going for 10/10 is likely to end tragically so I stopped there.

The result was an almost exactly 50% chance of opening a crate. 33 successful, and 35 “better luck next time,” which comes to 49% open. As with flipping a coin, you occasionally get streaks (like my 10 in a row), so unless you track the rest of your attempts, the odds may SEEM very different.

As many of you know, as you start opening crates, your odds of the loot being the collect-10 loot is close to 100%. That’s why some people erroneously believe that using gold in the beginning increases their odds of getting them. Look what would have happened if I used gold in the beginning: my first 6 opens were Big Bertha. It’s not part of some elaborate Gree strategy. It’s just simple odds... Odds that change as you go.

As it says in the in-game walkthrough for this event, it gets “harder” as you collect the items. Your odds of getting Big Bertha drops from close to 100% for #1 to somewhere around 2% for #10. The scam is that you seem so close, but each open only has a 1-in-50 chance of getting 10/10 once you reach 9/10. At that point it's like picking one number on a roulette wheel. It's possible you'll get lucky on the first spin. But it's also possible your number won't come up after 100 spins.

I would welcome anyone else to track their statistics during the next crate event. The more data you have, the more reliable the statistics. Maybe someone who does all FREE opens too.

Oh, and by the way, the collect-8 units have different odds too. Generally, the higher the stats, the rarer the unit:

Total Collect-8 loot:

7 x Firework Inspector 86/118
5 x Firework A18 119/127
2 x Firework UNS 174/173
4 x Firework Loader 250/230
2 x Firework Tornado 389/318
2 x Firework Crusader 692/460
1 x Firework Destroyer 1079/882
1 x Firework Admiral 3193/3902


All attempts:

1. Better luck next time.
2. Better luck next time.
3. Big Bertha (1)
4. Big Bertha (2)
5. Better luck next time.
6. Big Bertha (3)
7. Big Bertha (4)
8. Better luck next time.
9. Big Bertha (5)
10. Better luck next time.
11. Better luck next time.
12. Big Bertha (6)
13. Better luck next time.
14. Firework Loader 250/230
15. Better luck next time.
16. Firework UNS 174/173
17. Better luck next time.
18. Better luck next time.
19. Big Bertha (7)
20. Better luck next time.
21. Better luck next time.
22. Big Bertha (8)
23. Firework Inspector 86/118
24. Firework A18 119/127
25. Better luck next time.
26. Firework Inspector 86/118
27. Better luck next time.
28. Better luck next time.
29. Better luck next time.
30. Firework Admiral 3193/3902
31. Better luck next time.
32. Firework Tornado 389/318
33. Firework Crusader 692/460
34. Better luck next time.
35. Firework A18 119/127
36. Big Bertha (9)
37. Firework Crusader 692/460
38. Better luck next time.
39. Firework A18 119/127
40. Firework Inspector 86/118
41. Better luck next time.
42. Better luck next time.
43. Firework Inspector 86/118
44. Firework A18 119/127
45. Firework A18 119/127
46. Better luck next time.
47. Better luck next time.
48. Firework Tornado 389/318
49. Better luck next time.
50. Firework Inspector 86/118
51. Firework Inspector 86/118
52. Better luck next time.
53. Firework Loader 250/230
54. Firework Inspector 86/118
55. Firework Loader 250/230
56. Firework Loader 250/230
57. Better luck next time.
58. Better luck next time.
59. Better luck next time.
60. Better luck next time.
61. Better luck next time.
62. Better luck next time.
63. Better luck next time.
-------------------------- Gold resets after this point:
64. Better luck next time.
65. Better luck next time.
66. Better luck next time.
67. Firework UNS 174/173
68. Firework Destroyer 1079/882

[Gerard Figallo]

I used a vault of gold once i already had 8/8 and 9/10 and still never received 10/10. goes without saying I'm pretty disappointed

[Robespierre]

http://forums.gree.net/showthread.php?68507-Spent-1410-gold-to-get-the-last-eiffel-and-still-did-not-get-it

http://forums.gree.net/showthread.php?68392-Gold-option-scam!

http://forums.gree.net/showthread.php?67858-Special-Event-Boxes-Question/page2

All I can say is that attempting to crack the code will likely be the same as cracking the code on a slot machine.

Even the lottery says the odds of winning...

[Ozymandias]

Bringing data and analysis to an issue, rather than rumour and optimisitic pattern seeking. How dare you! Next you'll be telling us then that WD hits score less if someone else hits the same target at the same time!

[Dickweed]

9/10 and 7/8 with 4 different accounts. Not quite as good with 3 others. All cash opens. 15-17 opens each day. Pretty much the same as every time. Maybe 1 in 5 months will an account get 10. Seems like that completion frequency is to be about the same with unit collection as only a couple accounts have ever got 8/8 since it's inception so I would suspect several of my accounts are about due but not holding my breath. Not all accounts will be missing the same troop though so that seems to vary. Have have fallen for the trap several times and spent gold to reset and/or force open to no avail. Never again no matter how bad I want the prize (like this one....oh how I wanted that American flag tank and the upgrade reduction time bonus). :(

[Ozymandias]

FWIW, if I do all gold opens all the way through... I pretty much always get both prizes

[NexusImperium]

Generally I'm pretty happy with this game. I find most of the events to be an enjoyable experience. However, the crate event is completely worthless. I started to spend some gold because I wanted the 10/10 crate unit bonus so badly. However, after about 75 gold I realized I was being screwed with, so I stopped. I'm not going to spend gold on this game ever again.

Let me just leave a little suggestion that federal laws require companies who are holding contests with a reward to disclose the odds of winning the reward(s). I think Gree ought to do the same. The odds of winning the 10/10 reward in this game were downright dishonest on Gree's part.

[bam bam.]

Crates blow. Only way to win is to not open a single bloody one. You want to play slots download a gambling app. If ur odds were 90% id still b against it. Children should never b exposed to gambling. Especially a scam like this one where ur odds decrease the closer to the goal u get. Age restrict the game and place a warning that u r now gambling. It should b made clear to all that it is a gambling app and they should b exposed to same laws as gambling institutions. Loot chance drops r the same thing too. Lets clean up the game. Bring strategy back which has been dead for over 12 months. Bring the fun back. Ease up on the events, give us time between.

It's now either an auction on a leader board or gambling. I want gaming back.