Does different ways of opening chest changes the reward?

[Natsu]

I have been wondering if different ways of opening chance chest affect the results? Like we should press open 1 10 times instead of opening all 11 at once

[deathexe]

Yes, it does. You lose out on one chest and 5 FBAs in this case.

You may want to post questions like this in the question and answer thread next time.

[Bearsuo]

If I flip 11 coins at once... do 11 freshmen fail intro to Stat? Marilyn Vos Savant, Monty Hall us...

[cryologic]

This question has merit, in the fact that I too question the possibility that opening 11 chests at once, yields different results than opening one at a time.
Given that after opening approximately 99 chests using gems and the 11 chests button, got nothing but 2* and 2 3* armors. I then opened 1 single chest, got the new epic. Proceeded to open another 22 chests using the 11 button and got 2* fodder again. This is nowhere near conclusive data, but it does give me the suspicion that there is a difference.

[busteroaf]

So... Reward the suckers with fusion boosts, while one-at-a-timers get the epics? That would have merit except there are loads of "I opened 11 and got _____ all over Line". And many with 2+ epics. I think it's just as random for those that buy chests one at a time.

[Hildigam]

So... Reward the suckers with fusion boosts, while one-at-a-timers get the epics? That would have merit except there are loads of "I opened 11 and got _____ all over Line". And many with 2+ epics. I think it's just as random for those that buy chests one at a time.

Random is random. But on line i tend to think people buy WAY more chests than they let on

[Synovia]

Random is random. But on line i tend to think people buy WAY more chests than they let on

A lot of people don't seem to understand what random actually means.

Distributions aren't even, and having a person open 1 chest and get an Epic, and having someone open 150 and not get one is completely consistent with random behavior.

This isn't like some video games where each one you open and don't get something good, the odds go up. It's like playing a slot machine.

[Hildigam]

A lot of people don't seem to understand what random actually means.

Distributions aren't even, and having a person open 1 chest and get an Epic, and having someone open 150 and not get one is completely consistent with random behavior.

This isn't like some video games where each one you open and don't get something good, the odds go up. It's like playing a slot machine.

I concur. It isn't like cards where there is a stack that depletes and a determined number of aces you can get. It just isn't the way it works.

Sometimes you roll a 20, sometimes you roll a 1. The thing people are more worried about is the fact that the odds are so stacked against you it seems unfair.

Guess what? It is. Otherwise there wouldn't be people spending so much money

[dragonx254]

This is called Variable Ratio distribution.

The same mechanic used in Slot machines.

[Eunuchorn]

I have been wondering if different ways of opening chance chest affect the results? Like we should press open 1 10 times instead of opening all 11 at once

Yes. Exactly.

[Buttersheep]

This is called Variable Ratio distribution.

The same mechanic used in Slot machines.


Fun Fact: Slot machines can and do have separate pay tables based on the amount you bet. Usually they are fairly equivalent but Casinos (and Gree) COULD have separate percentages depending on which market segment they wanted to appeal to.

The original question is legitimate. It's probably the exact same percentage but no one will ever know for sure.

[iH8t2lose2]

Fun Fact: Slot machines can and do have separate pay tables based on the amount you bet. Usually they are fairly equivalent but Casinos (and Gree) COULD have separate percentages depending on which market segment they wanted to appeal to.

The original question is legitimate. It's probably the exact same percentage but no one will ever know for sure.
I concur. Generally, people who open 11 chests at once are already hooked. They will keep speding. However, if somebody opens 1 or 2, then they don't feel like they are big buyers. Once they get an epic, they will buy an eleven deal, and have spent more gems. I am sure if you look at statistics, people that open 11 are more likely to keep spending. Since they are more likely to spend until they get it: reduced chance=more chests. A lot of people will spend unti they get it just to be competitive.

[Eunuchorn]

Well, I'm convinced. 11 keys = ** only

One box at a time in the following order:
SG
SG+
**
Swamp
**
Combust
Beastmaster reg

[Sarn]

Well, I'm convinced. 11 keys = ** only

One box at a time in the following order:
SG
SG+
**
Swamp
**
Combust
Beastmaster reg

I did a mix of 11 chests at once and single chests. Opened about 4 11 chest combos and got one epic (moontide reg), 2 boilerplates and a couple sky guardian plus. The rest was junk

Opened about ten chests one by one and got nothing of value. Mind u the amount of single chests I opened is far less than the combo chests.

It all comes down to plain stupid luck IMO

Edit: guild mate opened 11 chests at once and got beast master+, another guildies got two epics with his 11. Most of my guild got squat tho

[Eunuchorn]

I've since gotten 2x BM & mael opening one at a time

~600 gems on individual chests.

[Bearsuo]

This question has merit, in the fact that I too question the possibility that opening 11 chests at once, yields different results than opening one at a time.
Given that after opening approximately 99 chests using gems and the 11 chests button, got nothing but 2* and 2 3* armors. I then opened 1 single chest, got the new epic. Proceeded to open another 22 chests using the 11 button and got 2* fodder again. This is nowhere near conclusive data, but it does give me the suspicion that there is a difference.

I flipped 123 coins, and got heads once. I'm going to flip a coin, clearly my odds of tails are 1% now.

[iH8t2lose2]

I've since gotten 2x BM & mael opening one at a time

~600 gems on individual chests.
Im doing it like that from now on.

[Sarn]

I flipped 123 coins, and got heads once. I'm going to flip a coin, clearly my odds of tails are 1% now.

While I thank you for the lesson in probability its not necessarily relevant to this thread. opening chests could be entirely random, but as far as I am aware gree has never said that it is. Just like poker/slots machines The probability of receiving an epic will depend on what algorithm they are using. This algorithm could be purely random or it could be weighted using one or more factors. For all we know it might be that epics are won per x number of chests opened by the community as a whole as an example. Or they might give preference to first time gem buyers to try encourage them to buy more, or as in the case of the theory of this thread, you might have better luck opening single chests. The point is we don't know.

[cryologic]

The one thing I can say for sure, is that the programming for these games is just that, programming. Unlike with casino slot machines, which have to be regulated. This game does not, look at this games programming/model no different than online poker rooms.

There isn't an online poker room to this day that has a truly 'random' card deal. And to top that off, the online poker rooms, generally stack the 'decks'. (People who deposit more, are given multiple opportunities during a session to win against their opponents, many of these chances are blatantly obvious, but some are not.)

Where you have many different types of views and opinions, for or against the idea that the companies computer generated 'odds' we are gambling our money into is in anyway affected by our spending habits.

My belief is, that if its possible (which it is) its most likely happening.

[Joshx135]

Guys this is GREE we are talking about. The RNG is probably so simple no one will ever find it out.

[gnolaum]

The answer to the question you asked is: yes.

The slightest change in timing will change the results of a computers random number generator.

The question you didn't ask it: does different ways/timings of opening a chest change the reward, guarantee a better result?

The answer to that is no.

[Synovia]

The question you didn't ask it: does different ways/timings of opening a chest change the reward, guarantee a better result?

The answer to that is no.
No, the answer to that question is "I don't know, because I don't write code for GREE."

It probably doesn't make a difference, but slot machines have all sorts of different odds tables depending on how you bet, so its possible that Gree has done the same thing.

[Synovia]

Guys this is GREE we are talking about. The RNG is probably so simple no one will ever find it out.

This is a company that is making a million dollars a day on a mobile game that probably took 30 hours of development time to write.

They know what theyr'e doing.

[Eunuchorn]

This is a company that is making a million dollars a day on a mobile game that probably took 30 hours of development time to write.

They know what theyr'e doing.

That being said, if anyone is a game programmer, please PM me. I have an easy to design concept with fast revenue potential. 30 hours seems low, though.

[Synovia]

That being said, if anyone is a game programmer, please PM me. I have an easy to design concept with fast revenue potential. 30 hours seems low, though.

There's more than 30 hours of art design, etc, but if theres more than 30 hours of coding, they've got slow coders. This game is VERY SIMPLE.

Ideas aren't worth anything in game design. Someone has had your idea before. Generally companies would rather not have your idea because its already been had, and hearing it from you puts them in a sticky legal situation.

What is worth something is a working prototype or a completed design document. If you've got a game idea you want to see produced, start writing code. Thats how the industry works.

[Bearsuo]

While I thank you for the lesson in probability its not necessarily relevant to this thread. opening chests could be entirely random, but as far as I am aware gree has never said that it is. Just like poker/slots machines The probability of receiving an epic will depend on what algorithm they are using. This algorithm could be purely random or it could be weighted using one or more factors. For all we know it might be that epics are won per x number of chests opened by the community as a whole as an example. Or they might give preference to first time gem buyers to try encourage them to buy more, or as in the case of the theory of this thread, you might have better luck opening single chests. The point is we don't know.

Obviously guild name is a factor in determining what loot Lucifron drops. Too many vowels and it's Druid loot all the way down.

The client synchs on opening the chest screen, which makes community pooling unlikely. Further, it's undesirable. While there may be knock on generation effects in their RNG for 11 vs 1x11 opens, that's not quite the same. But it's true. I can't disprove that RG3's injury has been slow in healing because you keep wearing that green bandana.

[gnolaum]

I opened 11 chest and got Beastmaster. Theory disproven.

[Sarn]

Obviously guild name is a factor in determining what loot Lucifron drops. Too many vowels and it's Druid loot all the way down.

The client synchs on opening the chest screen, which makes community pooling unlikely. Further, it's undesirable. While there may be knock on generation effects in their RNG for 11 vs 1x11 opens, that's not quite the same. But it's true. I can't disprove that RG3's injury has been slow in healing because you keep wearing that green bandana.


Actually the fact that the game synchs to the server makes community pooling possible. If it didn't synch then it would not be possible. As for the rest of your post, while highly improbable, anything is possible. :p

Edit: as for it being undesirable, It would be useful as a means to control the amount of epics available in the game and prevent it from being flooded. If the system is entirely random then they lose all control.

[Eunuchorn]

There's more than 30 hours of art design, etc, but if theres more than 30 hours of coding, they've got slow coders. This game is VERY SIMPLE.

Ideas aren't worth anything in game design. Someone has had your idea before. Generally companies would rather not have your idea because its already been had, and hearing it from you puts them in a sticky legal situation.

What is worth something is a working prototype or a completed design document. If you've got a game idea you want to see produced, start writing code. Thats how the industry works.

I don't do coding, I'm an ideas man!