Fusion Stone & Silver Key drop rates research: Please contribute

[Musketeer]

The drops of silver keys & fusion stones are the random rewards that makes materials farming slightly less than totally tedious.

My general impression is that the drop rate of each is in the order of 1%. I've had both drop at the same time (twice) so I know drops of each are independent, and I've had a silver key drop when I wasn't hitting the boss with a special attack, so it appears you don't need to hit the boss with a SA to get a drop.

What I'd like to know, if anyone has been analysing, is:

1) Are the drop rates the same for all stages, normal through epic?
2) Are the drop rates the same for all bosses?
3) Exact drop rate as a percentage (per boss and stage, if they are different).

[Lotak]

I'll keep a tally from now on!
My data will be limited to, predominantly, Skeleton's Tomb and occasionally Zephyr Plateau at Normal Stage.
If you'd like, I'll try mixing it up with Skeleton's Tomb at various stages, but ZP has to be done, for me, at Normal Stage as I know I can defeat it without needing to hire.

[drhawk]

I did a few hundreds of Skeleton's Tomb on Normal to max my big 4+. This is completely anecdotal, but I noticed the key and the stone had a better chance of showing up when I forgot to hit the boss with special attack. Ie. I got stones and keys as "consolation price" of some sort.
The chances for getting the key or stone when the boss dropped snakeskin was very very very small.

[Jello]

Before 1.3.2, the drop rate in Skeleton's Tomb seemed to be higher than it is now. I run Epic for the 95% drop rate of Leather. After 40-50 runs, I would normally get 2-3 stars. I started keeping a log of runs after the update just to see if it was better to run Honor or Epic for Leather, and after 200 runs, I had a whopping 1 fusion star and 2 keys! I stopped keeping the log. Over the last week, either the drop rate has increased a tad with a mini-update or my luck/timing has changed. I'm getting about 1 star per 50 runs. I haven't been keeping track of keys, but it's probably been about 2-3 keys per 50 runs lately.

I also run Kingdom of Darkness Epic 2-3 times a day just for XP and anything extra that might drop. I've seen a few keys and stars drop in there from time to time, but no exact numbers for you in there.

[Bma85]

Not a huge sample yet but here is what I got from 50 runs each of Skeleton Tomb:

Easy:
Snakeskin-39
Stone Slab-11
Silver Key-4
Fusion Star-1

Epic:
Snakeskin-46
Stone Slab-4
Silver Key-0
Fusion Star-1

It's a small sample so far, but from what I've seen difficulty helps your odds with higher level materials but not keys/stars. Once my battery is charged back up I will keep track of more to see how the stats change with a bigger sample.

[Musketeer]

I've done 55 runs on Thieves Cove Easy Stage. 2 keys and 1 fusion Stone so far.

I'll get to 100, then do 100 on epic stage to see if there's a difference, but from what you say, there probably isn't.

Odd thing with random shard drops, I though if you scored an unforced critical hit on a minion you got a shard, but this has not been the case. Instead I have just had occasional shards drop for no obvious reason.

[Hildigam]

I dunno I just did 15 minutes of Skeleton Tomb and got 3 back to back fusion stars. I dunno, it is random but not as high as you want it to be

*Edit*
On topic i recorded a 70% drop rate of snakeskin leather on Tomb Normal across 100 runs... was kinda creepy how it ended up flat like that

[SoloStar]

Couldn't these just be figured out just by opening game data files?

[Thatzme]

I strongly believe there's no percentage tagged to it simply because it's too random.

[SoloStar]

It's a drop table. Just like any other games with item drops/drop tables, you can open a file(s) and look at drop rates. No such thing as 'too random' when it comes to rates, theoretically.

[Musketeer]

It's a drop table. Just like any other games with item drops/drop tables, you can open a file(s) and look at drop rates. No such thing as 'too random' when it comes to rates, theoretically.

If you would care to do that for us we'd be most grateful.

[Unresolved]

Yeah, you can't have a 'random' drop in a video game without numbers. How would you program that? "Drop Fusion Stone periodically when player kills monster."

[Hildigam]

I game just pings a RNG and it says... You get a snakeskin, or You get a Slab. Think rolling a dice in DnD Each number has a value.

[Unresolved]

I game just pings a RNG and it says... You get a snakeskin, or You get a Slab. Think rolling a dice in DnD Each number has a value.

I'm not sure if this was directed at me, but I'll respond anyways. There's still a numerical drop rate in your scenario. It would be dependent on how many 'sides' the dice has. It would be 1(or more)/that number.

[Thatzme]

Yeah like in most games, it's a matter of RNG, that's how it seems to be with fusion stars and keys. On a good RNG day, i can get quite a bit of stars. On another lousy RNG run, i get nothing.

[SoloStar]

Yes, but there's a number/range of numbers it has to land on to get 1. Key 2. Primary boss drop 3. Secondary boss drop. 4. Fusion. If you ever played a game called Phantasy Star Online, you would understand perfectly. Back when the game first came out, players collected data for each monster on each difficulty (each difficulty gave diff rates, this game might do that too). Then, years passed and people started hacking into the data files and got the numbers from a table.

This is probably the best example of a game I could use. Each monster had rates for their 1. Rare drop 2. secondary rare 2. Any item rate. This is the data they collected for ONE difficulty: http://www.ign.com/faqs/2004/phantasy-star-online-episode-i-ii-ultimate-rare-item-drop-faq-cube-394902

You wouldn't believe how much time that saved. Just look at some of those rates. Nothing is ever 'random' in a game. There's a numerical 1/chance of drop of any item dropping.

[Hildigam]

Yes, but there's a number/range of numbers it has to land on to get 1. Key 2. Primary boss drop 3. Secondary boss drop. 4. Fusion. If you ever played a game called Phantasy Star Online, you would understand perfectly. Back when the game first came out, players collected data for each monster on each difficulty (each difficulty gave diff rates, this game might do that too). Then, years passed and people started hacking into the data files and got the numbers from a table.

This is probably the best example of a game I could use. Each monster had rates for their 1. Rare drop 2. secondary rare 2. Any item rate. This is the data they collected for ONE difficulty: http://www.ign.com/faqs/2004/phantasy-star-online-episode-i-ii-ultimate-rare-item-drop-faq-cube-394902

You wouldn't believe how much time that saved. Just look at some of those rates. Nothing is ever 'random' in a game. There's a numerical 1/chance of drop of any item dropping.

But MAN are those red boxes so addicting

[SoloStar]

But MAN are those red boxes so addicting

*Runs to red box*

PHOTON DROP'D :mad:

[Hildigam]

*Runs to red box*

PHOTON DROP'D :mad:

Derailed thread comment: the yoink sound was addicting too from picking up boxes.

Railed thread comment:

"I'm not sure if this was directed at me, but I'll respond anyways. There's still a numerical drop rate in your scenario. It would be dependent on how many 'sides' the dice has. It would be 1(or more)/that number. "

It was more of a shotgun comment. The dice rolling was more of an allusion to the fact that it isn't a fixed rate percentage where in 100 runs you will get X drops, but the fact that each one is independent from the last. But you are correct int the sides of the dice comment

[Musketeer]

Yeah, you can't have a 'random' drop in a video game without numbers. How would you program that? "Drop Fusion Stone periodically when player kills monster."

You don't have dice, but you have a 'random number generator'. Depending on how sophisticated that is, it can hide the fact that the original numbers all exist in there somewhere, unchanging. I'm not a computer programmer and don't want to mess with my iPod data tables, but here's how it might be done, based on some very basic layman's computer understanding.

1) Your device contains an array of 'random numbers'. Imagine a spreadsheet 10,000 cells square, with every cell being a digit from 0-9. These numbers are not really random, because they're fixed there in the code.

2) The game says - pick a number based on today's date and time (so it changes every second), take the next digit along and jump forward that many cells, then take that number and multiply them. If the result is > x, drop a Fusion stone.

Now that provides a reasonable series of random number very simply. You could add as many steps as you like to make the number jumps more confusing, but ultimately you're still picking two (or more) numbers from a fixed table to generate pseudo-randomness.

You could go into the game code and Change x to 1, in which case presumably you'd get a fusion stone with every boss kill, or you could cut out the RNG references and just have a fusion stone drop every time, but I'd label that as cheating.

[Jello]

Youre right Solostar. Nothing is random in a game. Its all predetermined. There is no randomness when you go in for the last 2,000 hp on the epic boss with one knight and without fail, the boss' first two shots on you are two hard f'n crits that kill you before you can do any damage to finish him off.

Or like how the "random" miss generator is so random that 8 out of 10 of MY first shots on someone in arena is a miss. 80% is not random, its hard coded. And I'll give it a generous 40% chance tht my second shot in arena will also be a miss. damn, they might as well just say "the other person has 3 knights, you will only have 2 since the first guy is dead before you even get a hit on the opponent's first knight!" And, should you make it past the "random" first two shot misses, you'll be guaranteed to miss that final blow that should have killed the last knight, which is countered by an SA from him to finish you off!! It doesnt matter if Im hitting a level 10 or a level 210! Now i have to deal with epics that will 1-shot my Eurus+ 70 (just happened). C'mon GREE. Let the chips fall as they should and take this "random" miss generator out of the equation!

[Unresolved]

You don't have dice, but you have a 'random number generator'. Depending on how sophisticated that is, it can hide the fact that the original numbers all exist in there somewhere, unchanging. I'm not a computer programmer and don't want to mess with my iPod data tables, but here's how it might be done, based on some very basic layman's computer understanding.

1) Your device contains an array of 'random numbers'. Imagine a spreadsheet 10,000 cells square, with every cell being a digit from 0-9. These numbers are not really random, because they're fixed there in the code.

2) The game says - pick a number based on today's date and time (so it changes every second), take the next digit along and jump forward that many cells, then take that number and multiply them. If the result is > x, drop a Fusion stone.

Now that provides a reasonable series of random number very simply. You could add as many steps as you like to make the number jumps more confusing, but ultimately you're still picking two (or more) numbers from a fixed table to generate pseudo-randomness.

You could go into the game code and Change x to 1, in which case presumably you'd get a fusion stone with every boss kill, or you could cut out the RNG references and just have a fusion stone drop every time, but I'd label that as cheating.

There are still drop rates in both of your examples. The first one has a set number of cells and a set number of "filled" cells. So if there were 100,000 cells and 50 of them were designated fusion stones. That'd be a 0.05% drop rate. For your second example, there would be a maximum possible value based on the two largest integers you'd be multiplying. There'd also be a minimum value. It would be easy to figure out how many possible values are below x and how many are above x. You could derive the drop rate from that. My point is, you can't program a game without using some sort of formula or number. I've only taken one computer programming class, but I can tell you that all those "random" functions like dealing cards in blackjack are all number-based.

[SoloStar]

wall of text

Yes, you have 'RNG'. But what the 'RNG' lands on to get: 1. Fusion 2. Key 3. 1st boss rare 4. 2nd boss rare, is the 1 in 1/chance of drop, which in turns it into a drop rate as a percentage or 1/x. We're not saying there's no RNG, there is. But RNG in a video game is ALWAYS an algorithm that ends up as a probability/drop rate for each scenario.

And lol, Jello. Yes, misses/hits are predetermined. To us, it's random...but when we think as a programmer, it was predetermined as soon as we pressed 'Fight!' For the things that can't be predetermined there (when you press SA), the game determines what will happen as soon as you press it and everything afterwards until the next thing that you can manipulate (when you use SA again).

[Lotak]

Youre right Solostar. Nothing is random in a game. Its all predetermined. There is no randomness when you go in for the last 2,000 hp on the epic boss with one knight and without fail, the boss' first two shots on you are two hard f'n crits that kill you before you can do any damage to finish him off.


This isn't random. The boss is programmed to always hit 2 crits on the 2nd run. I don't know why they did it, other than to make it that little bit more difficult, but it is what it is.

[Marco_]

Another thing to think about: since iOS and Android are pretty seperate in features, it's also quite possible that fusion stone and key drop odds are different between the OSes...

[Hildigam]

This isn't random. The boss is programmed to always hit 2 crits on the 2nd run. I don't know why they did it, other than to make it that little bit more difficult, but it is what it is.

Oh you want to do a 4/3 or a 5/2? How about you die right quick see how that goes.....

[Musketeer]

Yes, you have 'RNG'. But what the 'RNG' lands on to get: 1. Fusion 2. Key 3. 1st boss rare 4. 2nd boss rare, is the 1 in 1/chance of drop, which in turns it into a drop rate as a percentage or 1/x. We're not saying there's no RNG, there is. But RNG in a video game is ALWAYS an algorithm that ends up as a probability/drop rate for each scenario.

And lol, Jello. Yes, misses/hits are predetermined. To us, it's random...but when we think as a programmer, it was predetermined as soon as we pressed 'Fight!' For the things that can't be predetermined there (when you press SA), the game determines what will happen as soon as you press it and everything afterwards until the next thing that you can manipulate (when you use SA again).

We all seem to be saying the same thing, that the game has a pre-set drop rate, and uses an RNG to deternine when you get a drop. I don't think anyone has said anything different since the start of this thread.

I don't know how to hack into the code to see the pre-set drop rate, so I'm trying to work it out from observation, with help from anyone who is willing. It seems to be about 1/100 for Fusion Stones and 1/50 for silver keys, irrespective of where you are.

You say you can hack into the code to get the drop rate, so if you can please do so, give us the answer, and we can all stop observing.

[SoloStar]

I didn't say I can, but I'm saying it's doable. It should be in a file.

[Jman]

I strongly believe there's no percentage tagged to it simply because it's too random.

I agree that it is totally random. I've gone stretches without getting anything for 200 attacks then received stones and keys several times in 10 attacks. I noticed that I've been getting a lot more keys recently and almost no fusion stones (like 2-3 keys a day and a stone 1 or 2 times a week).

[Marco_]

Ah, now the discussion moved to pure random (every roll is independent from previous ones) vs weighted random (previous rolls affect the odds of the next roll) ?

[SoloStar]

Ah, now the discussion moved to pure random (every roll is independent from previous ones) vs weighted random (previous rolls affect the odds of the next roll) ?

No. No one has argued against each roll being independent. If it wasn't, it would be easy to figure out a rate. Those guys just keep using bad terms and don't understand 'random' still works on an algorithm and is based off numbers.

[Jman]

No. No one has argued against each roll being independent. If it wasn't, it would be easy to figure out a rate. Those guys just keep using bad terms and don't understand 'random' still works on an algorithm and is based off numbers.
I understand how random number generators use algorithms and definite values. However I think that the RNG works so well that trying to predict the outcome is pointless.

[quantumace]

I pity those of you who feel that they can "decode" this game by analyzing a series of numbers. Everything is random, and mathematics is just lie to give us the illusion that we have some semblance of understanding. Those who truly understand our existence know that numbers hold no value, other than to control the minds of the sheep. Think about how many decisions you make each day based on numbers, whether it be price, time, or distance. When you want to know what the "best" choice is, you use numbers to assign value and facilitate rankings. Then you delude yourself into believing that you are making your own decisions based on your carefully tabulated date, when in truth you are just allowing yourself to be manipulated by those who recognize the truth.








I'm just kidding. This conversation was getting really boring without rainbow pony.

[Roark]

ugh45678910

[SoloStar]

However I think that the RNG works so well that trying to predict the outcome is pointless.

Well, of course this data would just be for the curious. I don't care for the rate since materials/gold is more important, but I wanted to just point out how RNG works with drop rates. Getting the data would tell players if there monsters/stages/bosses that have better drop rates than others. Like if I wanted to farm keys or fusion stars, this place/monster would be better, etc (not counting KoD because it's obvious that place has a better key drop rate).

Did anyone else here play Phantasy Star Online or was it just me and the other guy? lol

[Lotak]

Skeleton's Tomb Normal
100 kills
65 Top Prizes
2 Forgot to Crit
3 Keys - 43(Top Prize), 45(2nd Prize), 62(Forgot to Crit)
2 Stones - 53(Top Prize), ~90s(Top Prize I think)

Zephyr Plateau - Normal
21 kills
6 Top Prizes
0 Keys
0 Stones

[Loose-End]

Sorry this research is very minimal but I came accross this and thought it would help a little bit:


20 runs of Faerie Forest Normal:

Fusion Stones: 0
Keys: 0


20 Runs of Flaming Wildwood on Normal.

Fusion Stones: 2
Keys: 1

[BethMo]

I'm just kidding. This conversation was getting really boring without rainbow pony.

LMAO! You had me going there, I was thinking "This guy needs to hang out with Eunuchorn!"

[EljayK]

Sorry this research is very minimal but I came accross this and thought it would help a little bit:


20 runs of Faerie Forest Normal:

Fusion Stones: 0
Keys: 0


20 Runs of Flaming Wildwood on Normal.

Fusion Stones: 2
Keys: 1

Weird. I had generally the same result this morning.

Ran Skeleton Tomb 20 times on Epic: 1 Fusion stone.
Flaming Wildwood 10 times on Normal: 2 Keys, 1 stone.
-First key was on first run, runs 8 and 9 gave key/stone respectively.

[sk8kidamh]

I pity those of you who feel that they can "decode" this game by analyzing a series of numbers. Everything is random, and mathematics is just lie to give us the illusion that we have some semblance of understanding. Those who truly understand our existence know that numbers hold no value, other than to control the minds of the sheep. Think about how many decisions you make each day based on numbers, whether it be price, time, or distance. When you want to know what the "best" choice is, you use numbers to assign value and facilitate rankings. Then you delude yourself into believing that you are making your own decisions based on your carefully tabulated date, when in truth you are just allowing yourself to be manipulated by those who recognize the truth.








I'm just kidding. This conversation was getting really boring without rainbow pony.

I just feel the need to point out that this post epitomizes how I feel about this thread.

[Pilfer]

I did 50 runs on Skeletons Tomb, Epic, with all crit finishes and got 3 stones and 1 key.

-royalt- pilfer

[Eunuchorn]

Keys can drop even if you don't use SA. So that's good.

[Eunuchorn]

This isn't random. The boss is programmed to always hit 2 crits on the 2nd run. I don't know why they did it, other than to make it that little bit more difficult, but it is what it is.

I havent finished skimming, but this person is wrong.

[The Pale Rider]

Seen this posted a few times and it seems to right based on my experience. he's talking abotu a 4/3 or 5/2 attack on the boss. The second time through the first two attacks from the boss are always for critical damage in my experience.

[EljayK]

From my experience it's from amount of damage the boss has taken. Under 50% life it crits once, under 25% life it crits twice. Desperation attacks I'm assuming is the logic.

[Eunuchorn]

From my experience it's from amount of damage the boss has taken. Under 50% life it crits once, under 25% life it crits twice. Desperation attacks I'm assuming is the logic.

Finally, thank you

[Paladineguru]

I havent finished skimming, but this person is wrong.

No, you are wrong. Doing a 3/4 or 5/2 split the boss always starts with 1-2 critical hits depending on his hp left

[Eunuchorn]

No, you are wrong. Doing a 3/4 or 5/2 split the boss always starts with 1-2 critical hits depending on his hp left

LoL you're cute in a stupid kind of way.

[Paladineguru]

Saw you beat me back in. Lol that's what I get for packing a bowl first

I'm not just cute, I'm a raging sexeh beast.

[Eunuchorn]

No worries PG. Alls fair in Kandy & chronic.

[madfighters]

While it may be obvious the higher amount of trys the more accurate the data is

[The Pale Rider]

Finally, thank you
Yes Yes. I acknowledge the correction. It's trigger by remaining HP. In fact the strategy advised elsewhere was to go 3/4 or 2/5 to avoid the 2nd critical -- not worth the benefit vs. the potential waste of energy if you'd killed it with first 5 IMO

[cafedecoy]

Howdy,

I ran skeleton tomb normal stage (easiest) 40 times, with special attack finish each time, and these are the results:

snake skin drop: 27 times (67.5%)
stone slab drop: 13 times (32.5%)
silver key drop: 2 times (5%)
fusion stone drop: 0 (very low?)