PDA

View Full Version : Military Case Event



Bala82
04-15-2013, 11:33 PM
10 box event :cool:

Flak jacket (80/72)
Scout Battle rifle (106/129)
Frag II(201/153)
Agile Armor (132/306)
M32- Thumper (1875/965)

CohibAA
04-15-2013, 11:36 PM
This looks nice!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ypi98HBqQzo/UWzYVxrE7HI/AAAAAAAADJ8/81aqV_46vEo/s1600/M-32_Thumper.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/military-case-event.html)

:cool:

dudeman
04-15-2013, 11:38 PM
Meh. It runs for a long time which seems to be resulting in stupidly low cash open rates. I'll take 7 if I'm lucky on this one.

NTM
04-16-2013, 12:08 AM
i'm taking all.. lol..

im at 3 and 3/10.... hope this time this bonus don't cost me so much gold like the last.. ..... anyway i need that RP point from fight.. i got from Rob but not for pvp.. i make more pvp like rob..

MoarKrabs
04-16-2013, 12:35 AM
Only 1 radio so far out of like 8 cash opens...

tehlolkid
04-16-2013, 12:48 AM
5 opens, 3 BLNT's, 1 ****ty weapon and one walkie talkie. This is going to suck.

Recruit
04-16-2013, 03:16 AM
This looks nice!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ypi98HBqQzo/UWzYVxrE7HI/AAAAAAAADJ8/81aqV_46vEo/s1600/M-32_Thumper.png (http://crimecitysyndicate.blogspot.com/2013/04/military-case-event.html)

:cool:

Not if you are a camper ;)

bald zeemer
04-16-2013, 03:23 AM
You don't want an 1800/900 weapon, purely because the mod isn't useful to you right now?

Bala82
04-16-2013, 04:23 AM
got flap jacket

vtwin
04-16-2013, 04:30 AM
4 opened, all cash

THCraul
04-16-2013, 04:49 AM
4/10 so far moving pretty slow

TZora
04-16-2013, 05:14 AM
is this event only for iOS players?

Bala82
04-16-2013, 05:42 AM
is this event only for iOS players?

nope i got it on android this morning

NTM
04-16-2013, 06:02 AM
dam i'm at 5 but after update no event....

any1 like this ?

Bala82
04-16-2013, 06:11 AM
Do you mean you updated the app ?

Never update the app during the event i always do after the event is finished

TZora
04-16-2013, 07:27 AM
i did not update the game since last many days but the event has not popped up for me yet. seriously gree what r u thinking huh? where the heck is this event? i've started the app like 20 times already but nothing yet lol .. funny game

the_brein
04-16-2013, 08:45 AM
5 walkies. Two blunts,

D3V
04-16-2013, 10:24 AM
i did not update the game since last many days but the event has not popped up for me yet. seriously gree what r u thinking huh? where the heck is this event? i've started the app like 20 times already but nothing yet lol .. funny game

Android is really weird with pushing updates.

If you click Menu - More - About - and you look at the build, below the number will say "Updating Game" or something like that. You have to keep the game open until the game says it's done updating. Then it will ask you to reboot the game.

It's really weird.

Anyways - I've got 6 of them so far all cash opens. I really want that modifier :(

kingofwale
04-16-2013, 10:37 AM
I'm 1 for 10 so far... what's going on here, Gree.. I know I'm only doing cash open, but this is the worst I've ever had.

my second character is 3/11.

baum
04-16-2013, 10:53 AM
I just use cash and haven't come close to getting the top prize in the last 5 case events. I'm not excited to see another event where the odds of success are low for the average Joe. It's too depressing.

Bala82
04-16-2013, 11:02 AM
I find if you get all boxes on first day you have higher chance of get 10th item but if you collect box during the event you keep junk items .

DarthJim
04-16-2013, 11:02 AM
So I just started playing CC coming from MW, just wondering what the minimum level is to participate in crate events.

Crime Time
04-16-2013, 11:03 AM
i did not update the game since last many days but the event has not popped up for me yet. seriously gree what r u thinking huh? where the heck is this event? i've started the app like 20 times already but nothing yet lol .. funny game


It starts for everyone not named Tyler Durden.... That name is nerfing events now...

Crime Time
04-16-2013, 11:05 AM
I find if you get all boxes on first day you have higher chance of get 10th item but if you collect box during the event you keep junk items .


If you shake your phone or iPad and hop on one foot while yelling "show me the money" also improves your odds of getting the tenth item

Bala82
04-16-2013, 11:09 AM
If you shake your phone or iPad and hop on one foot while yelling "show me the money" also improves your odds of getting the tenth item

Well if you want to do that i am not stopping you :)

THCraul
04-16-2013, 11:24 AM
i did not update the game since last many days but the event has not popped up for me yet. seriously gree what r u thinking huh? where the heck is this event? i've started the app like 20 times already but nothing yet lol .. funny game

Just restart your phone (or whatever the device you are playing on) not the app and you will get it

THCraul
04-16-2013, 11:27 AM
I am still 4/10 since my last post what a luck opening every hour but always BLNT never happened like this on first day...........

THCraul
04-16-2013, 11:30 AM
Gree I must say dont start event back to back give atleast 1 day time in between events because most of the time events have some issues.......

TZora
04-16-2013, 11:38 AM
Android is really weird with pushing updates.

If you click Menu - More - About - and you look at the build, below the number will say "Updating Game" or something like that. You have to keep the game open until the game says it's done updating. Then it will ask you to reboot the game.

It's really weird.
so true .. its "Updating..." and its just not doing anything and i'm watching .. watching .. watching .. and just updating ..

Leezygeezer
04-16-2013, 11:42 AM
doing well so far, 7 out of 10 and only cash opens, this never happens to me!!!! maybe i might even get a 10th item............ eternal optimist me :o

Brahmin
04-16-2013, 11:48 AM
what's the best way to get cases in terms of exp gained? I usually just attack people, but I'm wondering if there's a map location that can be farmed for just a little exp.

baum
04-16-2013, 12:56 PM
doing well so far, 7 out of 10 and only cash opens, this never happens to me!!!! maybe i might even get a 10th item............ eternal optimist me :o

Don't be so optimistic. Remember it's GREE. Bet you get stuck on 7 or 8.

gcfreem
04-16-2013, 01:03 PM
what's the best way to get cases in terms of exp gained? I usually just attack people, but I'm wondering if there's a map location that can be farmed for just a little exp.

Rob 1 xp buildings: laundromat, gun shop, electronics store, barbershop, souvenir shop, t-shirt stand, carousel, maybe one or two more that I forgot, level 7 or below. The drop rate is good, plus you earn RP.

the_brein
04-16-2013, 01:06 PM
Opening like hotcakes for me! Just hit number 8.

Kidkiller
04-16-2013, 01:17 PM
Wish good luck to everyone, this M-32 Thumper is a good boost for respect earning. Still that this particular event is upseting quite a bit due to the increasing difficulty with each walkietalkie. But hey its a game after all.

scatman62801
04-16-2013, 01:52 PM
for some reason my guy does not get to participate in these events can anyone help me out on how to fix this

the_brein
04-16-2013, 02:32 PM
Is your app up to date? And if you're on android, then get an ios device. I had a galaxy s3 with CC on it. It was buggier than a hotel mattress in the heart of Hollywood!

Brahmin
04-16-2013, 02:34 PM
Thanks gcfreem. You have to be at level ten or beyond for these events to show up scatman.

kingofwale
04-16-2013, 02:34 PM
what the hell man. I'm still stuck at 2... I've opened at least 15 times. :(

Invisigoth
04-16-2013, 02:39 PM
6 down. 23 bad boys to open. Bala's interpretation of having on hand seems to work for me thus far during this even. Yeah, yeah I know 6 is still early... but we'll see...

in-game j
04-16-2013, 03:38 PM
Opening like hotcakes for me! Just hit number 8.

Just hit 9 , yah !!!

panty sniffer
04-16-2013, 03:51 PM
Nice! Jus don't be TOO optimistic. I've hit 9 before with 2 days left and still didn't get 10. "all cash opens hourly except to sleep"

MoarKrabs
04-16-2013, 04:47 PM
13 straight blnts until earlier this afternoon when I finally managed to get the flak jacket.

Glycogen
04-16-2013, 04:51 PM
6 so far only 4 blnt, no other secondary prizes


I think even if you feel like you're stuck you should keep going because paying under 10k "if you're under 100" and getting a 10/10 item isn't too bad

BigD@wg
04-16-2013, 05:12 PM
Not one successful open yesterday. Lots today...at 8 now :D

Kidkiller
04-16-2013, 05:35 PM
Keep going folks, after the 10th its just collect and open them to get cash, respect and other junk

BigMoney
04-16-2013, 05:45 PM
Not one successful open yesterday. Lots today...at 8 now :D

I'm the opposite. 8 yesterday, not a single one today. About to have my 9th open of the day in a few minutes.

(CCK) Cam
04-16-2013, 05:46 PM
I have 3 so far I'm a cash opener

daystardawg
04-16-2013, 07:27 PM
opened first 19 cases with gold and resets, got to 9 walkie talkies.
next 10 cases with gold & resets, just $ & respect points.
decided to just do cash
1st cash open - got 10th walkie talkie and the awesome M32 Thumper.

Plumbernick9
04-16-2013, 08:32 PM
http://i805.photobucket.com/albums/yy339/plumbernick9/b8da7a75a19e5b1d8a28104dedb2c725_zps3c9ba595.jpg

THCraul
04-16-2013, 09:30 PM
I am loosing hope this time only 5/10

TZora
04-16-2013, 10:30 PM
i'm losing hope this time cuz the ****ing event has not yet started on my phone .. duh

tehlolkid
04-16-2013, 10:56 PM
I'm on 6/10.

Kidkiller
04-16-2013, 11:00 PM
Try uninstalling the app and get it back, maybe it will solve your issue Zora? Can't help you much on this :/I start to feel a bit cheap to have completed the event just after it went on and other didn't even have it begun...

TZora
04-16-2013, 11:10 PM
Try uninstalling the app and get it back, maybe it will solve your issue Zora? Can't help you much on this :/I start to feel a bit cheap to have completed the event just after it went on and other didn't even have it begun...
uninstalling/reinstalling worked .. but why gree? oh well ..

the_brein
04-16-2013, 11:48 PM
I am sitting at 8 opened. I will not be sleeping until I hit number nine.

Swedevil
04-16-2013, 11:51 PM
I am sitting at 8 opened. I will not be sleeping until I hit number nine.
Good luck with that... I was stuck on 8 for 27 opens last time...using no gold...lol

Kidkiller
04-17-2013, 12:18 AM
uninstalling/reinstalling worked .. but why gree? oh well .. happy to see that worked zora.

dudeman
04-17-2013, 12:23 AM
This is starting to feel like the longest collect-10 since the very first lockbox event (Diamond Sig), which lasted for a whole week on two separate occasions.

Similar results so far, so not looking good. :/

AstonP
04-17-2013, 01:42 AM
Oh man I got 9. After so many opens still no 10th :mad:

BigMoney
04-17-2013, 02:24 AM
Good luck with that... I was stuck on 8 for 27 opens last time...using no gold...lol

I did 16 gold opens today, still not a single walkie-talkie. Still stuck at 8.

I am a cow
04-17-2013, 02:43 AM
If you are using gold switch your technique to cash and vice versa spend 15 gold to try to get the next walkie talkie it worked for me in modern war, I was stuck on 8 had 15 gold tried got 500k then the next 2 tries got me number 9 and 10

BigMoney
04-17-2013, 04:07 AM
I actually did try that, even though I think it's just superstition. Didn't work for me today.

Speaking of superstitions, in the Executive Coupe event, I had good luck when I paid for a timer reset, waiting 10 minutes, and opened a case. Same sort of luck when opening a case after waiting for a couple hours. Pure luck/superstition, but I did get the Coupe on the first day doing so.

vtwin
04-17-2013, 07:10 AM
I just got number 9 this morning all cash opens, one more and 3 days to get it

Leezygeezer
04-17-2013, 07:19 AM
First oppen of the day, 8, since then sod all, oh had a couple enhanced bikes, garbage!

Mob Don
04-17-2013, 11:42 AM
Does anyone know the percentage a case will contain a walkie talkie vs random Item @9 cases?

zwiswoo
04-17-2013, 12:00 PM
Does anyone know the percentage a case will contain a walkie talkie vs random Item @9 cases?

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?48298-Gold-for-Collect-10s
My impression is those odds apply to all count 10 events. So if you have nine, the next time, if it is an open, has a 2% chance of giving a walkie talkie.

apexii
04-17-2013, 06:26 PM
I also have had bad luck finding #9 using gold...

Dipstik
04-17-2013, 06:43 PM
I got numbers 6-7-8-9 in four successive cash opens last night.

Mistress Nikita
04-17-2013, 07:00 PM
I got numbers 6-7-8-9 in four successive cash opens last night.

So the trick is: Stare at Dipstik's avatar, while dreaming of ponies. But it only works at night. Do I have that right?

KillerKat
04-17-2013, 07:35 PM
Is there even a chance of getting all 10 without gold?

thizznation2169420
04-17-2013, 07:42 PM
Is there even a chance of getting all 10 without gold?

Yes it's possible I've won 7 collect 10 events without gold just open every on on the hour

THCraul
04-17-2013, 09:42 PM
still stuck on 9.............cummon cummon pop up one more.............. :)

Gunflame
04-17-2013, 09:50 PM
been stuck on 8 all today. I need some justice!:rolleyes:

TZora
04-17-2013, 10:09 PM
i've won only one no matter how much dedication i show. the one that i won was 2 days in overtime .. anyway, i usually lose the first day cuz the freagin event never shows up on my phone. this military case event started on my phone when 3 days and 14 hours were left.

ArizonaSweetTea
04-17-2013, 11:08 PM
been stuck on 8 all today. I need some justice!:rolleyes:

Same here.

tehlolkid
04-17-2013, 11:59 PM
Stuck on 8 for the last 24 hours. This is the 3rd time this is happening for me.

holmzy
04-18-2013, 02:12 AM
stuck on 9:confused:

I am a cow
04-18-2013, 02:24 AM
try gold if your using cash and cash if you are using gold happened to me no reason it shouldn't work

shaman01
04-18-2013, 02:48 AM
i got 8 walky talkys. i just need 2 more. i opened so many boxes but so unlucky :(

vtwin
04-18-2013, 03:32 AM
Stuck on 9.

DrK
04-18-2013, 04:02 AM
I find if you get all boxes on first day you have higher chance of get 10th item but if you collect box during the event you keep junk items .

I think there might be something in this - has anyone else any evidence to support it?

This is only the second time I have ever got the 10th item (the first time I had to go into OT to do it). This one I got yesterday, with days still left to go. I only do cash opens.

I collected all my boxes within the first 12 hours of the event, simply because I've adopted a new go-slow policy towards levelling up. Every other time I continued collecting boxes all through the event. Could be a coincidence, but then again...

bald zeemer
04-18-2013, 04:31 AM
Well ever since I started going for it in the first hour I've got it every time.

It's hardly scientific, but I'm definitely sticking to it.

captiva
04-18-2013, 06:24 AM
I just got my 10th item. It was awesome while on pvp attact on extra respect points.

100% on 2nd option. No gold used.

Swedevil
04-18-2013, 10:30 AM
I just got my 10th item. It was awesome while on pvp attact on extra respect points.

100% on 2nd option. No gold used.congrats to you... I've been stuck on 8 for more then 20 opens...

Ride Jib
04-18-2013, 10:48 AM
I've been stuck on 8 for 2 days now! Frustrating!!!

Using cash option every time.

Mob Don
04-18-2013, 11:09 AM
Stuck on 9 after 11 opens

The Real Bosses
04-18-2013, 12:56 PM
8 and I doubt that there will be more

CohibAA
04-18-2013, 01:06 PM
8 for two days. Hope fading.

Brahmin
04-18-2013, 02:00 PM
congrats to you... I've been stuck on 8 for more then 20 opens...
8 Seems the sticking point for many. I too have been stuck on 8 for quite some time now.

celticsfan
04-18-2013, 02:21 PM
Just got 10. I used the free option for the first 7 and then paid for the rest.

Poppa G
04-18-2013, 02:28 PM
im on 9 walkie talkies with 2 days left, im gonna be opening crates every hour til I get 10

CC Pablo
04-18-2013, 03:20 PM
*****

How much gold did you spend to get 8, 9, and 10? What about how much gold did you use to open 10th? I have opened the first 9 with the cash option, and im considering using gold to get the 10th. Can anybody else give me advice on this? Should i use gold to open the last one now or should i wait right until the end?

*****


Just got 10. I used the free option for the first 7 and then paid for the rest.

celticsfan
04-18-2013, 03:33 PM
*****

How much gold did you spend to get 8, 9, and 10? What about how much gold did you use to open 10th? I have opened the first 9 with the cash option, and im considering using gold to get the 10th. Can anybody else give me advice on this? Should i use gold to open the last one now or should i wait right until the end?

*****


I didn't use any gold for the last 3, just the cash option. I would try the cash option a few more times, it took me about 5 tries to get the last one.

ThugKilla
04-18-2013, 03:43 PM
still on 9 over 32 opens still no 10... some gold some cash..

is it true the more you open the better your chances? or is it strictly a 2%(or whatever low amount) chance each time?

TheBatman
04-18-2013, 03:46 PM
just got number 10, used 60 gold

panty sniffer
04-18-2013, 03:54 PM
Best strategy for limited gold users would be to use gold only in last hour after it's known that your cash options haven't worked up until then.

From what I've read, you have a 2% chance of getting from 9 to 10 per cash open. Peeps win the lottery from time to time but if that person isn't you then wait to the last hour before using gold.

BigMoney
04-18-2013, 05:31 PM
*****

How much gold did you spend to get 8, 9, and 10? What about how much gold did you use to open 10th? I have opened the first 9 with the cash option, and im considering using gold to get the 10th. Can anybody else give me advice on this? Should i use gold to open the last one now or should i wait right until the end?

*****

It's still a lot of luck involved. I've bought a vault of gold and still failed to get a 10th item before (Keg Tap), and I got the last 10th item (Executive Coupe) using less than half a vault. Whatever you do, just realize you're gambling since there is no guarantee. I've also read that a gold open gives you a 2% chance (1 in 50) of hitting the 10th item, and 1500 gold = 100 opens (with no timer resets) or 50 opens (with timer resets). You're betting $100 on what's essentially a coin flip to get that 10th item.

Personally, I've used gold opens the entire time (occasional cash open because what the heck) with no timer resets. If I get it, I get it, but if I don't, at least I didn't waste too much gold. Currently on #9 also looking for #10. Gold is better spent on boss events anyway, as there's no luck involved there (and you know exactly how much gold it'll cost to defeat the boss 40 times given your attack stat).

Mobious
04-18-2013, 05:54 PM
The payout rate and reward items in this event seem considerably crappier than usual.

dag16
04-18-2013, 06:05 PM
Holy crap, I got ten using only cash opens. Probably fifteen to twenty total tries, number ten only took three tries!

Brahmin
04-18-2013, 07:05 PM
8 for two days. Hope fading.
I here you, me too. I allways open 1 every hour. I'm convinced that its impossible to get to ten on these without gold. Anybody who says they did is lying. If I don't get to ten on this one, I'm completely ignoring these type events from here on out. It's not worth the frustration, and vigilance it takes to open 1 every hour.

TenderPlacebo
04-18-2013, 08:03 PM
It is possible to get them without gold, I've done it a couple times now. I have also got a few real cheap like 45 gold on one. It's all luck and odds, that's all there is to it really. I find the case events I could care less about I end up winning, the ones I really want like economy mods I never get.

It's still worth playing no matter what, even if you only get to 9 for free you're talking about 1200 or so cumulative stats for free. I know how you feel though, it sucks when you just get stuck at 8 or 9, those are the worst ones and have the lowest drop rate, so it's to be expected.

Just keep plugging away, people have got 9 and 10 back to back and there's still 40 hours left. that's all you can do, or drop gold and hope you get it because that's when you really get upset.

I'm on 9 and have been for 30 hours now, hoping I can add that thumper to my inventory.

THCraul
04-19-2013, 12:27 AM
Man still no luck on 10th one stuck on 9th since years now...... LOL....... :(

Vito Corleone
04-19-2013, 12:52 AM
I here you, me too. I allways open 1 every hour. I'm convinced that its impossible to get to ten on these without gold. Anybody who says they did is lying. If I don't get to ten on this one, I'm completely ignoring these type events from here on out. It's not worth the frustration, and vigilance it takes to open 1 every hour.
It is possible...I once got the Crazy Hit and Runner using cash only.

yurakair
04-19-2013, 01:04 AM
I got the first 9 really fast, but the 10th walkie-talkie doesn't appear. I only get bikes, vests, baton and money.

bald zeemer
04-19-2013, 01:12 AM
You have a 2% chance every time a crate successfully opens. Keep at it.

MoarKrabs
04-19-2013, 02:04 AM
Stuck on 8 for the last 24 hours.

Daci
04-19-2013, 02:13 AM
Same as the last case event, stuck at 8 for the last few days. Plenty of Axes.

mperus
04-19-2013, 02:17 AM
first 11 opens i got 8 walkie talkies and for 3 days now, blnts.

thizznation2169420
04-19-2013, 02:28 AM
I here you, me too. I allways open 1 every hour. I'm convinced that its impossible to get to ten on these without gold. Anybody who says they did is lying. If I don't get to ten on this one, I'm completely ignoring these type events from here on out. It's not worth the frustration, and vigilance it takes to open 1 every hour.

That's hella funny so your saying I'm lying I just got 9 an 10 back to back no gold the last 4 collect ten events I won 3/4 missed the last on but got Descret getaway keg tap and thumper add my code if u don't believe me ill add u just to show u it's possible without gold this is my 8th collect ten event I won without gold gl everyone

panty sniffer
04-19-2013, 03:10 AM
2% chance from 9 to 10. It's a mathematical certainty that there will be members of this forum who got the 10th with cash only. If there are 50 ppl who are at 9 and give it one more try, 1 will be successful. If 1 person has 9 with 50 opens left chances are they will get it, "if he or she got to 9 early in the event and wakes up every hour".

MrSpidey
04-19-2013, 03:50 AM
Well, then I am almost there, having the 9th item for more than a day and still more than a day to go, I should be good with cash open only ;)

AliKat
04-19-2013, 07:33 AM
I have opened over 60 cases since I got my 9th... All with gold & resets, I am struggling to even get the cases to drop, and I'm still waiting... Not happy!!!

dougnichols
04-19-2013, 08:03 AM
Got my 10th this morning and it only costme 165 gold

Brahmin
04-19-2013, 01:31 PM
That's hella funny so your saying I'm lying I just got 9 an 10 back to back no gold the last 4 collect ten events I won 3/4 missed the last on but got Descret getaway keg tap and thumper add my code if u don't believe me ill add u just to show u it's possible without gold this is my 8th collect ten event I won without gold gl everyone
I was just kidding, and venting my frustration. Still at 8 btw.

in-game j
04-19-2013, 01:58 PM
Got my 10th this morning and it only costme 165 gold

gold refresh - then cash option?

or gold refresh - then gold 100% chance option?

BigMoney
04-19-2013, 03:52 PM
I can't imagine a gold reset followed by a cash open is ever a good idea for the 10th case, because it seems to me the odds of getting a successful (cash/loot/walkie) open with 9 walkie talkies is less than 50%.

jerky62
04-19-2013, 04:37 PM
first 11 opens i got 8 walkie talkies and for 3 days now, blnts.

Same here. Seems ridiculous.

trucker
04-19-2013, 04:39 PM
I've had 9 for a while now. last 18 tries and no walkie talkie. it's this just a funzio way of selling gold? can 10 happen without gold?

derpderpderp
04-19-2013, 04:51 PM
I used 30 gold right now and got 125k and a vest I'm mad right now

bald zeemer
04-19-2013, 04:52 PM
18 attempts at something with a 2% success rate is hardly going to guarantee you success.

$Heisenberg$
04-19-2013, 04:53 PM
Same here. Seems ridiculous.

8 for 2 days

J Smooth
04-19-2013, 05:40 PM
Ive had the worst luck on the last 3 collect 10 events. Decided to go all out for once and set an alarm to open every hour and i now have the 10th walkie talkie on my main and camper account. All cash opens. :)

Scarface78
04-19-2013, 10:40 PM
Sleep disorders and chronic sleep loss can put you at risk for:

Heart disease
Heart attack
Heart failure
Irregular heartbeat
High blood pressure
Stroke
Diabetes
Memory loss...

... and other symptoms I can't remember now...

Jame Hetfield
04-19-2013, 10:53 PM
9 cash opens. 300 gold spent for tenth. Worth it. 40% respect pwns!!!

THCraul
04-19-2013, 10:54 PM
Still no luck on 10th seems pretty hard to get...... :(

Jame Hetfield
04-19-2013, 10:57 PM
Still no luck on 10th seems pretty hard to get...... :(


Set that timer! No sleep tonight!!! How bad do you want it? No pain, no gain. Go in to overtime if need be.

THCraul
04-19-2013, 11:06 PM
Set that timer! No sleep tonight!!! How bad do you want it? No pain, no gain. Go in to overtime if need be.

i have already set it at one hour and opens every hour coz i get banner notification as well for military case ready but still last nights sleep wasted already lol...... lets see tonight....... :)

THCraul
04-19-2013, 11:08 PM
I dont know why the enhanced bike and sledgehammer loves me so much..........LOL

Mistress Nikita
04-19-2013, 11:09 PM
Sleep disorders and chronic sleep loss can put you at risk for:

Heart disease
Heart attack
Heart failure
Irregular heartbeat
High blood pressure
Stroke
Diabetes
Memory loss...

... and other symptoms I can't remember now...

Crankiness
Diarrhea
Lack-a Nookie
Athlete's Foot
Flatulence

THCraul
04-20-2013, 12:50 AM
Still no luck cummon gree release it...... :)

groovdog
04-20-2013, 01:01 AM
Stuck on 9 since box 14 (6/7 first 7 cash and 15 hrs in or so) and now have spent way too much on this stupid event. Even its a 2% chance I should have it. Convinced Gree has heuristic coding that differs based on your spending patterns as it doesnt matter what order I get the 10 items in (or cash gold mix) I always get #10 about the same time. If it was truly random (as random as far as computers go) I should get it earlier when I hit 9 earlier and later when I hit 9 later since 9 has the lowest drop rate on a successful open. Got 3 cash only opens in my 60 man guild who got it already and 3 light gold spenders. First cash was 2 days ago. Ill put him out on the bell curve out on the right but REALLY?

bald zeemer
04-20-2013, 01:43 AM
Funny thing about bell curves is that they are symmetrical.

Kepheus2nd
04-20-2013, 02:10 AM
Got 10/10 with cash openings yesterday - 24 hrs before event ends. I'm shocked - I bet that wouldn't have happened if I reallyreally wanted that modifier ;-) But the stats of the M-32 are nice. And I have a huge collection oc bikes, hammers and batons.

nytelock
04-20-2013, 02:12 AM
Got 10/10 with cash openings yesterday - 24 hrs before event ends. I'm shocked - I bet that wouldn't have happened if I reallyreally wanted that modifier ;-) But the stats of the M-32 are nice. And I have a huge collection oc bikes, hammers and batons.

Count yourself lucky mate! no such luck for us all. Congrats btw.

Kepheus2nd
04-20-2013, 02:27 AM
Count yourself lucky mate! no such luck for us all. Congrats btw.

Thanks! Even the drop rate was very good 1 case in 3 robberies IIRC. And I didn't take this event serious from the beginning b/c of the lame modifier. But better stats are always welcome, especially during boss events. Plain old dumb luck. Won't happen again, I bet...

groovdog
04-20-2013, 02:53 AM
Funny thing about bell curves is that they are symmetrical.Except there is skew in this curve associated with the difference in opening rates. My curve is way different then the cash curve. In short my odds of a getting it mathematically dont jibe across our sample size of 60 which is big enough to be statistically significant. First time I have ever had so much success early with cash and now I have my worst ever gold opening rate. Too odd especially since if I coded this game I would do what I am suggesting Gree is doing :)

Just had our 4th cash only, think I am cursed to not get this.

bald zeemer
04-20-2013, 03:04 AM
In my syndicate a good portion of people only use gold, and the spread in every event seems to be roughly the same. A few people get it with very few opens (15-30 mark), a few take a huge amount of opens (several hundred), and most are near the predicted statistical average of 79.

BigMoney
04-20-2013, 03:15 AM
Several hundred opens? *cringe*

yurakair
04-20-2013, 05:43 AM
writing something 10 times gives you luck:

M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper
M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper M-32 Thumper

(CCK) Cam
04-20-2013, 05:49 AM
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 I want walkie talkie 10 I have 9 currently.

Bala82
04-20-2013, 05:54 AM
Got 9 this morning i am about to give up :(

Euchred
04-20-2013, 05:55 AM
Got mine :cool:

http://i.imgur.com/LCjTEixt.jpg

Kicked 75 gold at it for opens cause the crazy stats.

in-game j
04-20-2013, 06:16 AM
Got mine :cool:

http://i.imgur.com/LCjTEixt.jpg

Kicked 75 gold at it for opens cause the crazy stats.

lol wow -lucky, i've spent couple hundred gold no dice... never won one of these events even with gold.

Spartacus18888
04-20-2013, 06:26 AM
Got 10, spent no gold,,,,,.....Horrahh

Does that now mean I get 40% more resepect forever.

Kwicky
04-20-2013, 07:03 AM
Been waiting on #10 for two days. To many tries, to much spent gold. Im done giving gree good cash for bad experience!

groovdog
04-20-2013, 07:04 AM
lol wow -lucky, i've spent couple hundred gold no dice... never won one of these events even with gold.And I wish I had only spend a couple hundred. Gree just lost a customer on these types events. I have spent so much its crazy and for the first time no luck. Got 9 within 15 hrs of the event starting. Opening 15-20 a day. Done a number of resets (embarrassed to say how many) and still nothing. All gold after 7 cash opens. Thanks for breaking my gold gambling habit Gree. Will save me a bunch. Cash opens here I come :)

in-game j
04-20-2013, 08:18 AM
And I wish I had only spend a couple hundred. Gree just lost a customer on these types events. I have spent so much its crazy and for the first time no luck. Got 9 within 15 hrs of the event starting. Opening 15-20 a day. Done a number of resets (embarrassed to say how many) and still nothing. All gold after 7 cash opens. Thanks for breaking my gold gambling habit Gree. Will save me a bunch. Cash opens here I come :)

ha, yeah - its like gambling - set a limit if you are going to use gold and then assume you're not going to win. then you come out feeling okay, when-most likely you miss on all attempts.

Sunsets
04-20-2013, 08:27 AM
Not a dime spent, and not an hour of sleep lost ... Miracles really do happen ;)

http://www.funzio.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3230&d=1366471540

in-game j
04-20-2013, 08:59 AM
Not a dime spent, and not an hour of sleep lost ... Miracles really do happen ;)

http://www.funzio.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3230&d=1366471540

and we all hate you. :mad: ha

Jame Hetfield
04-20-2013, 10:03 AM
Cuz pics or it never happened!!!
http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s210/the_brein/6397454200b6ab097076e84ffee1c586.jpg

panty sniffer
04-20-2013, 10:22 AM
Been waiting on #10 for two days. To many tries, to much spent gold. Im done giving gree good cash for bad experience!

I know. I spent over 500 gold on the 10th try but didn't get it. Never doing it again. This is gambling where the odds are against you. Gree should increase the odds of getting #10 dramatically other than just timer reset or force open if you are spending gold on the event.

Raise odds from 2% to 10% maybe and reward paying customers.

in-game j
04-20-2013, 10:34 AM
I know. I spent over 500 gold on the 10th try but didn't get it. Never doing it again. This is gambling where the odds are against you. Gree should increase the odds of getting #10 dramatically other than just timer reset or force open if you are spending gold on the event.

Raise odds from 2% to 10% maybe and reward paying customers.

lol 500 gold is nothing ;-)
i spent more ... ha. and i agree with you! even a 5% increase would be great.

Jame Hetfield
04-20-2013, 10:53 AM
It seems like people that spend gold have a less chance of getting the tenth!

NTM
04-20-2013, 11:27 AM
I know. I spent over 500 gold on the 10th try but didn't get it. Never doing it again. This is gambling where the odds are against you. Gree should increase the odds of getting #10 dramatically other than just timer reset or force open if you are spending gold on the event.

Raise odds from 2% to 10% maybe and reward paying customers.

same :)

anway they know who spend and who don't spend, i'm sure a guy behind make all for spend more and more..

this time i spend same amout like u, 15 opening, and nothing.. they can die i'm not going to reset this time...

don't need to increase, i'm sure they know who spend.. last time cost me a hand.. not this time. i stop in 2 hours...

$Heisenberg$
04-20-2013, 11:55 AM
spend 200 gold trying to get the 9th but nothing, wtf? normal?

Jame Hetfield
04-20-2013, 12:27 PM
spend 200 gold trying to get the 9th but nothing, wtf? normal?

Took me 300. I've heard others more. Actually, that was for my tenth.

panty sniffer
04-20-2013, 01:15 PM
Blackjack odds of winning= 45%
Roulette odds of winning= 47%
Case event odds of winning= 2% from #9 to #10
casino's do well and so does Gree.

groovdog
04-20-2013, 01:19 PM
Got 4 cash winners in my syn. One was Day 2. I had 9 14 hrs in over 125 opens no #10. Cash only from now on. Most I had spent before was 800. Average is about 500. Never again. Good job Greed.

Bucho
04-20-2013, 01:21 PM
I have been on my 9th case for the past 2 days. On the hour every hour still no #10. Tough one:-( using only cash tough no gold

Scarface78
04-20-2013, 01:24 PM
I have been on my 9th case for the past 2 days. On the hour every hour still no #10. Tough one:-( using only cash tough no gold
what are you complaining about? I've on 9th case for the past 4 days...

TenderPlacebo
04-20-2013, 01:30 PM
Been on 9 for 3 days now and spent about 400 gold and only miss less then 5 opens in a 24 hr period every day.
I'm starting to lose hope, but I did win the last 3 in a row with a moderate amount of gold, so I can't complain too much.

ArizonaSweetTea
04-20-2013, 01:34 PM
8 for 2 days

8 for 3 days now

lesnar
04-20-2013, 01:55 PM
Been stuck on 8 since day 2 with all cash opens, got 9 & 10 in a row once I started using gold, needed 75 gold only.

Brahmin
04-20-2013, 02:47 PM
I know. I spent over 500 gold on the 10th try but didn't get it. Never doing it again. This is gambling where the odds are against you. Gree should increase the odds of getting #10 dramatically other than just timer reset or force open if you are spending gold on the event.

Raise odds from 2% to 10% maybe and reward paying customers.

This is the reason I will NEVER spend gold on these events. I sat at 8 for three days, by the last day I could tell with absolute certainty it simply wasn't going to happen. They threw everything at me but the kitchen sink and the 9th walkie talkie.:mad:

BigMoney
04-20-2013, 04:15 PM
I know. I spent over 500 gold on the 10th try but didn't get it. Never doing it again. This is gambling where the odds are against you. Gree should increase the odds of getting #10 dramatically other than just timer reset or force open if you are spending gold on the event.

Raise odds from 2% to 10% maybe and reward paying customers.

If GREE wanted to reward paying customers, the way to do that would be to decrease the price of timer resets and gold opens, not change the odds. If they changed the odds to 10% for a final open, they would lose a HUGE amount of money from people who would normally shell out gold to get that final item, and it would cheapen the in-game value of that power weapon since it'd be so easy to get that everyone would have them. If everyone's stats go up by 2000, then no one's stat has gone up by 2000. I really wish I could just take their company over for a day, as I'm positive I could still make the game better while still making them more money than their currently making.

TenderPlacebo
04-20-2013, 06:23 PM
Well it used to be 10 gold for resets and opens, but they got greedy just like they do with everything else.
Crates used to be 50 gold a pop and 150 for sets, they always try and milk people for a little more.

I too think if you spend 2k gold the chance of opening should go up a bit, say 4% and if you spend more like 3k it should go up to 6% and if you pass the 4k mark it should go to 10%.
At that point you paid for it basically and kind of deserve it, especially after all the useless prizes you have obtained from gold openings.
I hate paying 15 gold for a bike that doesn't even get used, at least they could do is tier those crap prizes so it doesn't feel like kick to the teeth when you get one.

BigMoney
04-20-2013, 07:59 PM
Yeah, I will agree that they should adjust the loot items to cater to people's current stats or level better. If you're level 25, then an Enhanced Bike is awesome, since you probably haven't even maxed out on vehicles yet. But if you're the sort that's willing to spend a lot of gold on the game, odds are that the EU Security Baton isn't doing anything for you when you could just buy (or already have better) 500 Katanas. I progressed through the levels way too quickly and have only recently slowed down, so I'm not sure exactly how the loot items change as you progress through the levels (e.g. I know "trick razors" are/were a loot item at lower levels, but I'm still below level 100 and receiving the Enhanced Bikes/EU Security Batons/Carnival Sledgehammers/etc everyone seems to be talking about, many of whom I'm sure are well above level 100).

bald zeemer
04-20-2013, 08:04 PM
Lvl 177, same loot. None of the loot items are of any use whatsoever.

Same deal with TL and HH challenges.

Crime Time
04-21-2013, 07:14 AM
doing well so far, 7 out of 10 and only cash opens, this never happens to me!!!! maybe i might even get a 10th item............ eternal optimist me :o

This event is like that hot girl who you buy drinks for all night at the bar hoping she will go home with you at the end of the night. Rarely does it happen but when it does, it is worth bragging about.

TenderPlacebo
04-21-2013, 08:15 AM
My camper just hit level 12 and gets same items as a level 200, something very wrong with that

Doll
04-21-2013, 10:03 AM
I was only able to get 2 out of 10 for cash openings.

Alice
05-01-2013, 09:16 PM
Anyone's ever spent 3 vaults of gold starting from 9th and ended up without 10th? As I'm still in OT and have opened 136 or more cases since 9th, maybe 400+ total cash tries, still no 10th. 54 cases in hand and will soon quit OT for syndicate war.

CohibAA
05-01-2013, 09:35 PM
Anyone's ever spent 3 vaults of gold starting from 9th and ended up without 10th? As I'm still in OT and have opened 136 or more cases since 9th, maybe 400+ total cash tries, still no 10th. 54 cases in hand and will soon quit OT for syndicate war.

Maybe they nerfed OT like they nerfed cheaters. Or maybe the odds just suck and you had terrible luck. I'm thinking the latter. I spent about a day in OT and ended with 9. Just got my 20th on the current event, though.

:cool:

Alice
05-01-2013, 09:57 PM
Maybe they nerfed OT like they nerfed cheaters. Or maybe the odds just suck and you had terrible luck. I'm thinking the latter. I spent about a day in OT and ended with 9. Just got my 20th on the current event, though.

:cool:

I do know people got 10th in OT this time, or maybe they just nerfed Alice?:p

Splifton
05-02-2013, 12:00 AM
I do know people got 10th in OT this time, or maybe they just nerfed Alice?:p

Alice, on this event I was in OT for about 4 days, and still never got the 10th item. I must have attempted around 50+ cases with about 20 successful attempts with batons, sledgehammers, etc. All CASH, no gold.

Did I read correctly: you been in OT for about 1.5 weeks now?

Alice
05-02-2013, 12:12 PM
Did I read correctly: you been in OT for about 1.5 weeks now?

Yes, and my CC is still running fine in OT.

Splifton
05-02-2013, 08:24 PM
Yes, and my CC is still running fine in OT.

Wow I would have figured you would have run out of cases to open. I was getting down to my last 10-12. How many cases did you have starting in OT?

TZora
05-02-2013, 08:49 PM
prizes in OT do work. i got my 15th case open a few hours ago in the 20 case event. i'll try to get to 20 .. already tried 3 or 4 times but got cash wins (the ultimate $10k win hehe) and couple of blnt.

Alice
05-02-2013, 08:56 PM
Wow I would have figured you would have run out of cases to open. I was getting down to my last 10-12. How many cases did you have starting in OT?

I've started with 190 cases, now 44 left...

SinSir
05-02-2013, 10:00 PM
I've started with 190 cases, now 44 left...

Lol, you're blóòdy amazing.
You missed a decent leaderboard event though.

Tony 432847666
05-02-2013, 10:31 PM
Wow, Alice,what you have done is just amazing.
Hope you earn that m32 thumper be4 you have to jump out.:)
Waiting for ur good news.
Cheers

Alice
05-02-2013, 10:59 PM
Lol, you're blóòdy amazing.
You missed a decent leaderboard event though.

It's fun to see how long we could stay in OT right? If not for the syndicate war I can make a better record. :p

SinSir
05-03-2013, 12:41 AM
Alice did you know you don't have to restart your device when the syndicate battle starts on the last leaderboard event, I got my 20 key chain whilst participating in the syndicate.

Basically good luck on beating your own ot records, my money is on you to surpass it.

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 02:37 AM
Anyone's ever spent 3 vaults of gold starting from 9th and ended up without 10th? As I'm still in OT and have opened 136 or more cases since 9th, maybe 400+ total cash tries, still no 10th. 54 cases in hand and will soon quit OT for syndicate war.

If you give yourself ~35% chances for a cash open, then the mean number of tries to get the tenth item from 9 is in fact about 130-140. The basic problem is that it's "memory free" - your chances on say the 101st attempt, having failed a hundred times already, were no higher or lower than they were on your first. So each time you press that button you're getting a fixed shot, it's not like you're slowly climbing the mountain, and the tail gets long.

Good luck with it today. My app died in the first few hours of OT for this event lol.

BigMoney
05-03-2013, 04:44 AM
If you give yourself ~35% chances for a cash open, then the mean number of tries to get the tenth item from 9 is in fact about 130-140. The basic problem is that it's "memory free" - your chances on say the 101st attempt, having failed a hundred times already, were no higher or lower than they were on your first. So each time you press that button you're getting a fixed shot, it's not like you're slowly climbing the mountain, and the tail gets long.

Good luck with it today. My app died in the first few hours of OT for this event lol.

What do you mean by "35% chance for a cash open"? 35% chance you get a loot item/non-BLNT using a cash open? Because the odds of getting the 10th item (walkie-talkie in this case?) are certainly much worse than 35%. I've seen the numbers before, but I've always been unclear what exactly they are referring to-- e.g. I believe the 10th item is supposed to be 2%, but I don't know if that's using gold opens, cash opens, etc.

bald zeemer
05-03-2013, 04:57 AM
I believe he's referring to the chance of not getting BLNT (ie, a "successful" open).

2% is for all open types, but refers to the chance that a successful open will be an item.

BigMoney
05-03-2013, 05:19 AM
Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification. (It also explains zwiswoo's 130-140 number).

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 05:39 AM
I believe he's referring to the chance of not getting BLNT (ie, a "successful" open).

2% is for all open types, but refers to the chance that a successful open will be an item.

Yes, that's definitely more clearly put than my effort. You can sort of estimate that 130-140 number as being 1/(0.35*0.02). I think that's not quite right, you probably care about the median more than the long tail, but it's enough for ballpark purposes. I doubt we know the 35% very well to begin with...

bald zeemer
05-03-2013, 05:45 AM
In the end the issue is the open-ended long tail, anyway.

And answering the question that kicked this whole thing off, I've known of instances of people dropping 8+ vaults without getting the item.

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 06:04 AM
In the end the issue is the open-ended long tail, anyway.

And answering the question that kicked this whole thing off, I've known of instances of people dropping 8+ vaults without getting the item.

That sounds horrifying. You could do 600 scratchers and feel better after the outcome :D

I found a calculator (http://www.solvemymath.com/online_math_calculator/statistics/discrete_distributions/geometric/quantile_geometric.php) for it; apparently you need to try with cash more than 400 (!) times to give yourself a 95% shot of reaching the 10th item given 9, for 35% chance of !BLNT. Not that gold helps much when the item chance is 2%. The median seems to be about a hundred tries.

Daswi
05-03-2013, 06:06 AM
In the end the issue is the open-ended long tail, anyway.

And answering the question that kicked this whole thing off, I've known of instances of people dropping 8+ vaults without getting the item.

Holy ****e!!!

Daswi
05-03-2013, 06:09 AM
Anyone's ever spent 3 vaults of gold starting from 9th and ended up without 10th? As I'm still in OT and have opened 136 or more cases since 9th, maybe 400+ total cash tries, still no 10th. 54 cases in hand and will soon quit OT for syndicate war.

Good luck Alice! I was successful my first two OT events, now my game resets a couple of hours into OT.

bald zeemer
05-03-2013, 06:21 AM
That sounds horrifying. You could do 600 scratchers and feel better after the outcome :D

I found a calculator (http://www.solvemymath.com/online_math_calculator/statistics/discrete_distributions/geometric/quantile_geometric.php) for it; apparently you need to try with cash more than 400 (!) times to give yourself a 95% shot of reaching the 10th item given 9, for 35% chance of !BLNT. Not that gold helps much when the item chance is 2%. The median seems to be about a hundred tries.

The median is 79.

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 06:26 AM
The median is 79.
As in exactly? How do we know this?

bald zeemer
05-03-2013, 06:32 AM
Maths.
I'm too drunk to recreate the process right now. You can recreate it easily enough, or take it on faith, or wait until I'm sober.

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 06:42 AM
Maths.
I'm too drunk to recreate the process right now. You can recreate it easily enough, or take it on faith, or wait until I'm sober.

Would be glad when you're de-drunkified. I basically got the median (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log%280.5%29%2Flog%281-0.35*0.02%29) for a geometric (http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=585905) distribution for p=0.007 (0.35*0.02). Can't say I did the math myself, just googled and used the calculator.

TZora
05-03-2013, 08:25 AM
u have to be drunk in order to be absolutely correct. in fact, when ur drunk, ur almost always correct :D

G()DF@TH3R
05-03-2013, 08:30 AM
when is next boss/case event?
because case event ended... reply soon if possible

TZora
05-03-2013, 08:41 AM
after the battle for packer heights :p

Alice
05-03-2013, 09:09 AM
Alice did you know you don't have to restart your device when the syndicate battle starts on the last leaderboard event, I got my 20 key chain whilst participating in the syndicate.

Basically good luck on beating your own ot records, my money is on you to surpass it.

wow I didn't know that...however my itouch will crash if I switch between syndicates and battle screens.

Alice
05-03-2013, 10:19 AM
That's my OT, 153 opened over 400 tries, cash only no 10th.

Daswi
05-03-2013, 10:24 AM
That's my OT, 153 opened over 400 tries, cash only no 10th.

Sorry you didn't get 10th open, super effort tho'

Alice
05-03-2013, 10:40 AM
Sorry you didn't get 10th open, super effort tho'

Can't get them for free every time :p

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 11:23 AM
That's my OT, 153 opened over 400 tries, cash only no 10th.

Oh, this just sank in. You didn't try ~150 times in OT. You tried over 400 times, and got 153 actual opens. Huh. That's really impressive. At least that gives a really good idea what the open rate is: 38.25% which must be a 40% open rate.

It also means you got really unlucky - I believe starting out committing to making *that* many tries in OT you should have more than 95% chance of getting the item...

bald zeemer
05-03-2013, 11:29 AM
Would be glad when you're de-drunkified. I basically got the median (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log%280.5%29%2Flog%281-0.35*0.02%29) for a geometric (http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=585905) distribution for p=0.007 (0.35*0.02). Can't say I did the math myself, just googled and used the calculator.

You have to do the median for 2% to get the number of successful opens required, and then multiply that result be 1/open % (for whichever method).

79 is the gold opens required, so the raw figure. The cash attempts would therefore be 225.7 at 35% open rate. (Note that the 79 figure is for 0->10).

zwiswoo
05-03-2013, 12:02 PM
You have to do the median for 2% to get the number of successful opens required, and then multiply that result be 1/open % (for whichever method).

79 is the gold opens required, so the raw figure. The cash attempts would therefore be 225.7 at 35% open rate. (Note that the 79 figure is for 0->10).

We were mathing different things entirely :) I was counting cash opens including that fraction, and going 9->10 not 0->10.

Not sure if you should take the 40% or 35% out of the median and divide it separately. My logic is that for each attempt (rather than overall) it combines with the other probability to give you a probability of getting the item in that attempt. So for the 9->10 case, you could imagine each open attempt as being *first* a decision of which item you'd get (2%), then of whether you get it (35 or 40% chance). Viewing it this way should not affect which fraction - if any - you should move out of the median calculation. So you gotta keep em both in.

Not sure. Weird how little crime and how much mathery this allegedly criminal game involves. Nerdity makes everything better. Anyway it doesn't matter in terms of the number at the end, because everything really comes from the last two opens, and for them the two calculations are the same because the probabilities are so low.