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Glycogen
04-11-2013, 07:43 PM
After I got my 10th key, I got 2 more. Does the drop rate "reset" every 10 keys? If so should I go in OT for 15?

TZora
04-11-2013, 07:59 PM
exactly same here! and i was thinking oh i got so lucky lol .. got 10th and then 2 more keys.

dudeman
04-11-2013, 08:05 PM
I still have 2 keys. The game is not playing me this time.

Hey Gree, I think that means I just got a small win over you bunch of carnies!

Issaquah
04-11-2013, 08:17 PM
You're running hot! I got #10 3 days ago and since then no keys but plenty of +1 mafia an small cash amounts.

OneHoop
04-11-2013, 08:21 PM
I would never consider using gold for a case auction and would advise against it for a collect10, but I am keenly interested in what the drop rates are for open cases in the case auction. Judging by how many they get on the leaderboard it can't drop off as much as it does for a collect 10. Still, I would guess that it follows the same pattern, but repeated in blocks of 5.
reasonable drop rate, followed by super high drop rate, followed by less-reasonable drop rate, followed by much lower drop rate, followed by much much lower drop rate. Though it repeats this progression, I would guess that the drop-off is more precipitous as you achieve each prize.

We don't have the numbers or the data, however.

Despite thinking it is a waste, I still play the middle option, because 300RP is worth quite a bit of in-game cash, and I still use most of the consolation prizes as well. I ran well into this event pursuing OT for the collect10, but still got the first two prizes on one account and the first prize on the second account pretty easily. I typically will get at least the 2nd prize and very rarely the third prize.

You can't very well go into OT for this one very long if you are in a syndicate. I do plan on taking a couple of last stabs at it as I get ready for work tomorrow morning. I'll take a Hitman's Sniper Rifle for ~$30,000, please?


M@

NTM
04-11-2013, 11:24 PM
10 and 11, pretty hard.. anyway i don't care i dont make this type of event...

BigMoney
04-11-2013, 11:47 PM
I would never consider using gold for a case auction and would advise against it for a collect10, but I am keenly interested in what the drop rates are for open cases in the case auction. Judging by how many they get on the leaderboard it can't drop off as much as it does for a collect 10. Still, I would guess that it follows the same pattern, but repeated in blocks of 5.
reasonable drop rate, followed by super high drop rate, followed by less-reasonable drop rate, followed by much lower drop rate, followed by much much lower drop rate. Though it repeats this progression, I would guess that the drop-off is more precipitous as you achieve each prize.

We don't have the numbers or the data, however.


Can't say for sure exactly since I wasn't keeping close track, but I got the first 20 with gold opens really easily (got the helicopter on the first day, I might have run a little hot-- I took a screenshot of me above some TYLER DURDENs in the top 25 in the first 10-20 minutes, haha), spending less than 500 gold (I remember since this was my gold left over after the leather briefcase event). I switched to cash opens from then until today, and I only got 4 more keys (averaging probably 13-15 cash opens per day). Using gold opens again (to stay in top 250), I'd estimate I get a key at about 1:5 to 1:7. This is just based on my personal experience for this particular event, and a lot of guesstimating, but perhaps it gives you a little bit more of an idea.

Edit: since making this post, I recorded my success during the final push for tank keys. All gold opens.

1. Fail
2. Fail.
3. Fail.
4. Fail.
5. Success.
6. - 13. Fail.
14. Success.
15. - 22. Fail.
23. Success.

So that's 3:20, so my original estimate wasn't too bad. I ended up with 43 keys for 161st. I probably didn't need those 3 extra keys, wish the leaderboards didn't freeze, but oh well.

bald zeemer
04-12-2013, 12:23 AM
Open rates are basically static after 20.

Jazza
04-12-2013, 01:54 AM
The first day i got 5, 2nd day i got 4, then had 3 days of nothing, finally got the 10th and then nothing again after that. Thats the worst ive ever done on one of these events :(