zwiswoo
01-25-2013, 02:39 AM
I tried to figure out the chances in a scratcher of getting prizes of different sorts. That is, the chance of seeing 1/2/3/4/5/6 items of the same sort. I think it comes out to:
1: 1.5%
2: 61.7%
3: 31.5%
4: 4.8%
5: 0.4%
6: 0.01%
I got those numbers by throwing random numbers and seeing what happened, assuming that all six item types (cash/respect/gun/melee/armor/vehicle) are equally likely to appear in a grid box, and that what happens in one box doesn't affect what happens in any other.
So basically you should expect to get a level 2 or 3 item a bit more than 90% of the time, and level 4 about once in twenty tries. You get five of the same sort once every ~250 tries, so maybe one a year. The odds of getting all six being the same are basically zip - you'd have to be scratching every day for more than a decade to have a reasonable expectation of getting a level six item.
Just to test the numbers, here's what I actually have for my scratchers (just looking at items...no idea what the deal is with cash or respect):
2: 24 (65%)
3: 11 (30%)
4: 2 (5%)
It's pretty similar...
1: 1.5%
2: 61.7%
3: 31.5%
4: 4.8%
5: 0.4%
6: 0.01%
I got those numbers by throwing random numbers and seeing what happened, assuming that all six item types (cash/respect/gun/melee/armor/vehicle) are equally likely to appear in a grid box, and that what happens in one box doesn't affect what happens in any other.
So basically you should expect to get a level 2 or 3 item a bit more than 90% of the time, and level 4 about once in twenty tries. You get five of the same sort once every ~250 tries, so maybe one a year. The odds of getting all six being the same are basically zip - you'd have to be scratching every day for more than a decade to have a reasonable expectation of getting a level six item.
Just to test the numbers, here's what I actually have for my scratchers (just looking at items...no idea what the deal is with cash or respect):
2: 24 (65%)
3: 11 (30%)
4: 2 (5%)
It's pretty similar...