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View Full Version : Random number generation seeding algorithm - can it be beaten?



mxz
08-08-2012, 09:49 AM
I've noticed that if I open a box/crate and get a secret document (or, insert any previous 'prize') - if I open exactly 1 hour later I tend to repeat the prize. I can usually get 2-3 more if I'm diligent until it slides to a weapon/RP open. The same happens with a weapon open - I can continue getting that Hitman sniper rifle 3-4 times in a row. $ seems to not follow this trend.

Similarly, when farming, if I get the loot item I can usually pick up another 1-2 quickly before there are no drops.

And the kicker: after losing a rob/attack if I hit again quickly the same result happens. Wait 5s and I go back to winning.

I need more data but I'm developing a strategy around how this algorithm works and how to beat it.

So far I've gotten 19 secret documents with only in game cash opens, I haven't lost 2 fight/robs in a row, and my drop rates per energy have increased (mostly in MW since I'm camping my CC a bit), since employing my strategy.

My theory is that the number seed for PVP and PVE is between 3-5s but I'm a little hung up on the box seed generation. I can't collect enough data on it and haven't been able to record with proper fidelity the timing of opens. Current assumption is that it works on a 1-5s window similar to PVP/PVE.

So the two variables I'd like to lock down are
-what is the refresh rate of seed generation?
-how many cycles are used?

Anyway, enough data for today. If I actually figure It out I'll probably keep it out of the public eye so I can get in the top 250 without gold :p

Swifty
08-08-2012, 09:59 AM
@OP

You can get similar results by having your neighborhood hedge witch cast a spell on you.

Just saying....

Dipstik
08-08-2012, 10:00 AM
I've noticed the same patterns. I'd say that a seed that changed on the order of SECONDS (as opposed to at MOST microseconds) would be such a poorly written random number generator that it'd be ridiculous to even think of it... but I would probably be giving too much credit to this game's coders.

jmeijer
08-08-2012, 10:00 AM
Normally, the option to open another box is one second later. The outcome shouldn't be the same. But sometimes, you can open right after 00:01 is displayed. I think that there is an algorithm, but it seems to me that it can be changed. Depends on the amount of documents you have I think.

mxz
08-08-2012, 10:14 AM
I've noticed the same patterns. I'd say that a seed that changed on the order of SECONDS (as opposed to at MOST microseconds) would be such a poorly written random number generator that it'd be ridiculous to even think of it... Agreed. You'd think that was the case but real world data doesn't support it...so I've got hope.
Normally, the option to open another box is one second later. The outcome shouldn't be the same. But sometimes, you can open right after 00:01 is displayed. I think that there is an algorithm, but it seems to me that it can be changed. Depends on the amount of documents you have I think.That's my basis for assuming its 1-5s. You'll have 1s drift each time and can do it 3-4 times. I've had it work less often, presumably starting closer to the end of the window. with the old event style (get 10 boxes) it was an exponential function of decreasing probability. As others have noted, the new event style is linear.

mxz
08-08-2012, 10:18 AM
I have a way to formally test this on box openings but I'd need at least 20 people...
Too bad the major gangs are gold openers because we could probably figure this out today with enough people.

TonySpaghetti
08-08-2012, 10:29 AM
I'm a cash opener. If you want me to help, I'm in.

Dipstik
08-08-2012, 10:32 AM
I think your idea has merit, but I'm not going to help because I'm salty like that. Best of luck! :)

Tissues
08-08-2012, 10:54 AM
@ OP - I have XP that, with Loot & getting the S.Doc in this Event...
PM me with what questions you may have..
Also a Medium option opener.. Currently sitting on 21 S.Doc's from 95 Attempts..

Q.P.R
08-08-2012, 11:02 AM
I've noticed that if I open a box/crate and get a secret document (or, insert any previous 'prize') - if I open exactly 1 hour later I tend to repeat the prize. I can usually get 2-3 more if I'm diligent until it slides to a weapon/RP open. The same happens with a weapon open - I can continue getting that Hitman sniper rifle 3-4 times in a row. $ seems to not follow this trend.

Similarly, when farming, if I get the loot item I can usually pick up another 1-2 quickly before there are no drops.

And the kicker: after losing a rob/attack if I hit again quickly the same result happens. Wait 5s and I go back to winning.

I need more data but I'm developing a strategy around how this algorithm works and how to beat it.

So far I've gotten 19 secret documents with only in game cash opens, I haven't lost 2 fight/robs in a row, and my drop rates per energy have increased (mostly in MW since I'm camping my CC a bit), since employing my strategy.

My theory is that the number seed for PVP and PVE is between 3-5s but I'm a little hung up on the box seed generation. I can't collect enough data on it and haven't been able to record with proper fidelity the timing of opens. Current assumption is that it works on a 1-5s window similar to PVP/PVE.

So the two variables I'd like to lock down are
-what is the refresh rate of seed generation?
-how many cycles are used?

Anyway, enough data for today. If I actually figure It out I'll probably keep it out of the public eye so I can get in the top 250 without gold :p

Wow thanks for that, truly amazed