View Full Version : Nitrous variance

07-23-2012, 08:35 PM
We are all operating in the universe of small sample sizes, and this will lead to seemingly aberrational results. I just went through a stretch where I had 3 nitrous drops in 28 opens, and then I had 4 in a row. Folks, it is variable, and if you don't believe me, go to Las Vegas and play craps or any other game with long term odds close to 50-50.

My one anecdotal observation from the last few events is that after the first 10 items have dropped, the drop rate seems to be closer to 5-1 than the 3-1 that I have seen others report. But even that is not statistically significant due to the small sample size. I would be happy to participate in systematic recording in future events, but what we really need is data from the people who have dropped over 200 items, because then we can start to approach long term accuracy

07-23-2012, 08:48 PM
I agree with you that that nitro or whatever the new style of event item rates are fare. Ive had a few hot streaks and a couple of cold streaks but I am a gambler and the odds seem fair to me. As a gambler I dont mean opening crate gambler: I mean a poker, roulette, blackjack gambler! I am a math teacher which is why I am always interested in numbers and odds with anything.

07-23-2012, 09:17 PM
They are manipulating the odds based on how many you have and what day the contest is on. They are trying to get everyone to buy gold.

07-23-2012, 09:30 PM
They are manipulating the odds based on how many you have and what day the contest is on. They are trying to get everyone to buy gold.

Not sure about that. Last event I kept up with the top 250 in the first couple of days with cash opens and bought gold to gain a little lead towards the end and stayed there. This event I started with gold to get a lead and kept it even when I switched to cash opens. Two different approaches but I still feel like my success rate stayed the same. I have had hot and cold streaks with both styles. I have even had back to back successful item opens with the cash option a couple of times in the last few events! Its easy to complain and realize a cold streak as compared to appreciating a hot streak. Any poker player will tell you that they clearly remember their bad beats more than the times they lucked out and won a hand.

07-23-2012, 09:51 PM
You're probably right. In the Computer Chip event, I started it by using a bit of Gold in the beginning and I was able to safely stay in the top 500 by about 4 chips for most of the time. I fell to the cut off point a few times, but I always regained my 4 chip lead after a couple hours because of lucky streaks.

I'm guessing everybody gets those streaks, and the gold spenders have a lead because of timer resets and being able to open the box 100% of the time.

Oh also, my lead wasn't much towards the end of the event. I ended up spending some more gold to keep up.

07-23-2012, 09:59 PM
Best place for the numbers you seek would be obtained by copying the result totals from "billionaires" thread on posting totals. Most of the posters upgate as event procedes.

07-23-2012, 10:19 PM
If odds change based on where a player is relative to the top group, and/or that player's gold spending history, that would be incredibly robust software, in the league of the airlines. I have a hard time believing that gree's software is this good and feel that after first 10 opens the odds are somewhere between 1-3 and 1-5 for all of us