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View Full Version : Dispelling Myths About New Style Event Open Rates



AppleMacGuy
07-21-2012, 06:25 AM
There have been various theories bandied around recently about open rates and so on with the new style events. But, there has been, AFAIK, a complete lack of hard numbers to back up these myths up.

Stements along the lines of "I got 20 fails in row...these events suck" or "I haven't had a widget in 2 days...these events suck" are pretty useless comments for the purposes of proper analysis.

So, here are some real numbers from my stat sheets (umm, a stack of sticky notes actually lol!). These cover both cash only opens and gold opens - one of the frequent comments I've seen is that there is a bias towards gold spenders. So, what is the real truth?

Computer Chip Event
I used gold opens start to finish, so with a 100% open rate:
* the Computer Chip drop rate was 32% of opened safes

Samurai Chest Event
I used cash opens initially:
* the chest open rate was 40.2%
* the Katana Shard drop rate was 20.8% of all open attempts
* the Katana Shard drop rate was 51.7% of opened chests
Switching to gold opens, so with a 100% open rate:
* the Katana Shard drop rate was 34% of opened chests

Sealed Crate Event (NB Event still In Progress!)
I have used cash opens so far:
* the crate open rate has been 50%
* the Nitrous Tank drop rate has been 23.6% of all open attempts
* the Nitrous Tank drop rate has been 48% of opened crates

Conclusions?
Although the sample event size is not that big and that the current event is in progress, IMHO, taken over the course of an entire event I draw the following conclusions:
* IMHO, the opens and widget drop rates average out to a reasonably consistent rate across individual events
* IMHO, there is no evidence of any gold opening bias when comparing actual cash opens to gold opens

I would welcome any addititional detailed stats to back up or contradict my findings and further constructive discussion. Thanks.

Tissues
07-21-2012, 06:53 AM
Nice bit of number crunchin.. For this event im only using cash open.
I got 18 nitro from around 48 attempt, 20 fails and 10 loot/cash..
Can you crunch my stats ??

Deluxe
07-21-2012, 07:05 AM
Nice bit of number crunchin.. For this event im only using cash open.
I got 18 nitro from around 48 attempt, 20 fails and 10 loot/cash..
Can you crunch my stats ??

I'd love those numbers on cash option as I'm at 7 after 4 days...opening at least 12 a day and have gotten amazing streaks of fails...yesterday I think I had 8-9 fails in a row before getting deviant coat...got 5 nitro first day and 1 nitro each following day...hopefully I can keep up that deplorable rate just to hit 10...

Dr Girlfriend
07-21-2012, 07:10 AM
I think the "bias" towards gold spenders is simply that if you don't spend gold in the new style events, there's absolutely no chance of winning the top prize. In the old style free players had a slim chance, but at least they had a chance.

Sandukan
07-21-2012, 07:11 AM
You are missing the point.
All those data points are hours.
Gold spenders can negate the hour lag and the failed attempts. So in a race to highest number of items they are at an advantage.
An advantage they pay for nonetheless.
The events are now only a spend off. All people are asking for is variety. Including events that require astute game play or have a fighting chance based on will power would be welcomed.

NTM
07-21-2012, 07:54 AM
Nice bit of number crunchin.. For this event im only using cash open.
I got 18 nitro from around 48 attempt, 20 fails and 10 loot/cash..
Can you crunch my stats ??

lol...

liar....

18 nitro with 48 box :) and 10 lot :) 20 fails

liar lol.... u have think before write this ?

just look the other and the number of fail and the number of Nitro, ur the only who have so much succes lol..

ur open a box pouffff a Nitro what life lol...

stop to lie... all know that not possible...

u don't sleep and make all hours no ? lol.. liar......

Tissues
07-21-2012, 08:11 AM
I have no need to lie Nitro Theif Man, i just got my 19th with 49 box attempt, 10 Loot/Cash and still 20 Fail..
Look: but dont cry ok..
http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q601/Yiddokid/6b048542.jpg

Bala82
07-21-2012, 08:53 AM
Well i be happy be in top 250 but it look unlikly since i need 6 :(

<3 Hz
07-21-2012, 08:58 AM
Conclusions?
Although the sample event size is not that big and that the current event is in progress, IMHO, taken over the course of an entire event I draw the following conclusions:
* IMHO, the opens and widget drop rates average out to a reasonably consistent rate across individual events
* IMHO, there is no evidence of any gold opening bias when comparing actual cash opens to gold opens

I would welcome any addititional detailed stats to back up or contradict my findings and further constructive discussion. Thanks.

That's the thing, I think to get a more accurate rate, you'd probably need samples from 50 players at least. Maybe next event a thread can be started & everyone can post their exact stats. At the end, someone who has a lot of time on their hands can tabulate everything. I'd be very interested to see the min. and max. # of opens on a sample of 50 players & see how far apart the difference is.

NTM
07-21-2012, 09:05 AM
I have no need to lie Nitro Theif Man, i just got my 19th with 49 box attempt, 10 Loot/Cash and still 20 Fail..
Look: but dont cry ok..
http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q601/Yiddokid/6b048542.jpg


yeah yeah, i just try a free option and i ot one too :) and just after a midle and got one too..

(i use a account camper in same condition like my android, no Gold all midle option and ? i got 7.. stop to lie..)

anyway u put a screen and ? u use Gold u don't use the midle option, stop to take the other to coward... and take a screen with the Gold, and if u have 0 Gold that maybe because u have us it :)

stop to take the other idiot, QPR now u, all people are like u and qpr in england ?

Dr_GeoFry
07-21-2012, 09:28 AM
Nice bit of number crunchin.. For this event im only using cash open.
I got 18 nitro from around 48 attempt, 20 fails and 10 loot/cash..
Can you crunch my stats ??

AppleMacGuy, I love you, but there is no way those stars are right. I started using gold in the samurai version just to see if the open rate was much higher. It was. I got many crates opened which had shards, and that was at the very end of the game. In this game, I'm using the leftover gold. There is no way that I'm getting a NT more than 1/3 of the opens. There's NO WAY! I got to like ten in like the last half of day 1, and 1 yesterday, and I just got a fire truck today. Like I've said earlier, put mediocre weapons and gold in these crates when the player opens them. It's better for the players not using gold, and those using their credit cards. I mean I've gotten like a few hundre Rcoins and like $20,000. That's just insulting…

The Billionaire
07-21-2012, 09:50 AM
AMG,

My full stats for the last 2 events have been logged on the below threads if you need some more data to analyse.

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?37107-Samurai-Chest-Event-Log-Your-Progress-Here!

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?37458-Sealed-Crate-Event-Log-your-progress-here!

DenZ1
07-21-2012, 09:54 AM
I'd love those numbers on cash option as I'm at 7 after 4 days...opening at least 12 a day and have gotten amazing streaks of fails...yesterday I think I had 8-9 fails in a row before getting deviant coat...got 5 nitro first day and 1 nitro each following day...hopefully I can keep up that deplorable rate just to hit 10...

I have exactly same experience with about 15 tries per day. 5 in day 1 and just 2 in following 3 days.
I don't think much need to be crunched here :) Open rate is about 40%.

Eyelusion
07-21-2012, 10:12 AM
lol...

liar....

18 nitro with 48 box :) and 10 lot :) 20 fails

liar lol.... u have think before write this ?

just look the other and the number of fail and the number of Nitro, ur the only who have so much succes lol..

ur open a box pouffff a Nitro what life lol...

stop to lie... all know that not possible...

u don't sleep and make all hours no ? lol.. liar......

NMT,

Did you jump on the hate wagon lately?

I believe Tissues. I'm cash only and have 15. Reading the thread, Dudeman has 16. Why couldn't someone with cash only get a little more lucky and have 18?

Dr_GeoFry
07-21-2012, 10:20 AM
NMT,
I believe Tissues. I'm cash only and have 15. Reading the thread, Dudeman has 16. Why couldn't someone with cash only get a little more lucky and have 18?

I'm thinking I'm the unluckiest guy in this game. Why do I open like 15 crates to get like 1 or 2 items? Like I said, 10 items on Day1, two on Day2, and 0 today. Got lots of fire trucks and rusted rail guns…

AppleMacGuy
07-21-2012, 10:22 AM
I think the "bias" towards gold spenders is simply that if you don't spend gold in the new style events, there's absolutely no chance of winning the top prize. In the old style free players had a slim chance, but at least they had a chance.

Agreed...the format completely ignores the interests of free players. The only positive thing to be said is that the free players now have a chance to acquire 4 decent stat items for free...so far it seems quite possible with average luck. Interestingly, in the latest KA, they have now stretched that to 5 items...also it seems that they've reverted to the top 50/top 250 format as opposed to top 25/top 250...one can only assume that gold sales were poor last time out.

AppleMacGuy
07-21-2012, 10:24 AM
AMG,

My full stats for the last 2 events have been logged on the below threads if you need some more data to analyse.

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?37107-Samurai-Chest-Event-Log-Your-Progress-Here!

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?37458-Sealed-Crate-Event-Log-your-progress-here!

It looks like you gave up logging after 3 days on the Samurai Chest Event? Do you have the rest of the data to post up?

AppleMacGuy
07-21-2012, 10:32 AM
That's the thing, I think to get a more accurate rate, you'd probably need samples from 50 players at least. Maybe next event a thread can be started & everyone can post their exact stats. At the end, someone who has a lot of time on their hands can tabulate everything. I'd be very interested to see the min. and max. # of opens on a sample of 50 players & see how far apart the difference is.

Yes, a larger sample size would ideal...but there are few players it seems that are as diligent as I've been in logging their data and even fewer that actually post up complete event opens. I know it's not easy, especially if you're on the move between home/work/school...whatever. But, the Notes app is a great place to keep opening results logged.

Perhaps if we could get a committed group together, may be 10-20 to start with, then we could have something more to analyse?

Second Comming
07-21-2012, 10:35 AM
NTM - Why Tissues a liar when it is possible? I only opened one box in 14+ tries yesterday, but I've gone from 7-11 & 50k with 5 opens in a row so far today.

telankesy
07-21-2012, 10:36 AM
From my own observation, in the old styled events, the chance of cash opens is fixed, while the chance of getting an event item decreases with the more items you already have.

In the new styled events, the chance of cash opens seems to decrease with the more items you already have, but the chance of getting an event item is fixed. So it's hard to put a percentage on open rates for the cash option IMO.

The Billionaire
07-21-2012, 10:41 AM
It looks like you gave up logging after 3 days on the Samurai Chest Event? Do you have the rest of the data to post up?

All six days worth of data is there in the Samurai thread. I've just updated the sealed crate thread with the data from day 4 so far. I've also created a thread where i'm going to log my results from each event. It's more of a summary so you won't have to count the fails etc.

http://www.funzio.com/forum/showthread.php?37483-CC-Event-Tracker-Log-Your-Event-Results-Here

Trendsetter811
07-21-2012, 05:22 PM
You are missing the point.
All those data points are hours.
Gold spenders can negate the hour lag and the failed attempts. So in a race to highest number of items they are at an advantage.
An advantage they pay for nonetheless.
The events are now only a spend off. All people are asking for is variety. Including events that require astute game play or have a fighting chance based on will power would be welcomed.

100% agree - I'm a cash and gold spender but only use gold for events if absolutely necessary but they should have challenges that give better odds to people who put in the most game time or will power as you put it but although I can't complain I have been quite lucky these new style events it's gold or no top show for the most part because of the numerous clock resets giving them exponentially a better chance even if they reset the clock with gold and used cash to try and open which doesn't make sense if u have the gold but like applemacguy proved the drop ratio really doesn't change forcing them open or by using in game cash u just end up with a ton of loot items/cash/ & nerfed rp

Chester78
07-21-2012, 06:27 PM
Yes, a larger sample size would ideal...but there are few players it seems that are as diligent as I've been in logging their data and even fewer that actually post up complete event opens. I know it's not easy, especially if you're on the move between home/work/school...whatever. But, the Notes app is a great place to keep opening results logged.

Perhaps if we could get a committed group together, may be 10-20 to start with, then we could have something more to analyse?

I don't know, AMG. I'm having terrible luck with this event, I still only have 8 with cash opens. Cant really complain because i typically do fairly well in the events. I would definitely like to help by logging my results next event. I think it's a great idea, <3 Hz!

Max Power
07-21-2012, 09:18 PM
In the new styled events, the chance of cash opens seems to decrease with the more items you already have, but the chance of getting an event item is fixed. So it's hard to put a percentage on open rates for the cash option IMO.

See, that doesn't make much sense to me. Since we are playing against each other rather than the game, it makes little sense to not have a linear rate.

Not saying they didn't do it that way, but why reduce opens when we are just playing each other? It doesn't matter if the winner has 1000 or 200.

_dan_
07-21-2012, 09:47 PM
See, that doesn't make much sense to me. Since we are playing against each other rather than the game, it makes little sense to not have a linear rate.

Not saying they didn't do it that way, but why reduce opens when we are just playing each other? It doesn't matter if the winner has 1000 or 200.

You've got a point there but it's also true when people get nitros/shards harder when they have more items. I notice that first 5 items one may get in 1 day, after that it takes longer and longer for 1 more. People often stuck around 17-19 items, in the previous event it took me nearly 2 days for the 18th shard.

Beardy
07-22-2012, 12:24 AM
See, that doesn't make much sense to me. Since we are playing against each other rather than the game, it makes little sense to not have a linear rate.

Not saying they didn't do it that way, but why reduce opens when we are just playing each other? It doesn't matter if the winner has 1000 or 200.

I always get the most on the first day, less the second and then 1 if I'm extra lucky the following days.

How else could this be explained?

AppleMacGuy
07-22-2012, 05:02 AM
From my own observation, in the old styled events, the chance of cash opens is fixed, while the chance of getting an event item decreases with the more items you already have.

In the new styled events, the chance of cash opens seems to decrease with the more items you already have, but the chance of getting an event item is fixed. So it's hard to put a percentage on open rates for the cash option IMO.

No, you're wrong...there is no evidence for what you say - if you have some proof post it up. Cash open rates are fixed throughout the event subject to the random nature of the opens.

AppleMacGuy
07-22-2012, 05:04 AM
I always get the most on the first day, less the second and then 1 if I'm extra lucky the following days.

How else could this be explained?

There are plenty of players who could say they've experienced exact opposite to you. The open rates are fixed, subject to the random element that is applied.

Dr Girlfriend
07-22-2012, 05:35 AM
I always get the most on the first day, less the second and then 1 if I'm extra lucky the following days.

How else could this be explained?

I've experienced the opposite so far. Both times I started relatively slow, and had a surge at the end. Last event, I got seven on the last day to get to 21. Not a drop of gold spent.

Wolfy
07-22-2012, 06:09 AM
Does your level and option have a bearing on what is dropped?

Have only used the free option with between 15 and 18 attempts a day.

So far I have received the following:-

8xNitro
3xPimp's Lowrider
2xSecurity Shotgun
3x6k
1x30k
1xExtra Mafia

_dan_
07-22-2012, 06:35 AM
I always get the most on the first day, less the second and then 1 if I'm extra lucky the following days.

How else could this be explained?

Same experience.

Because when open event items CC connect back to server (server process), so Funkio easily manipulate the drop rate. If it's a local process like looting map items (not connect back server), you can expect the drop rate is linear for each log in.

I think you can imagine the chance when event item appear is something like this:

1/(items player got + 1)

The more you got the less chance it appear.

Max Power
07-22-2012, 08:25 AM
I too have experienced that faster starts and always get stuck on 8 or 9 (I don't try hourly, my fault for getting outdoors every once in a while)

Not saying it does or doesn't happen, just saying that if the players are merely competing against each other, it wouldn't make sense to make the degree of difficulty progressive.

I refuse to try hard at leaderboard events. The odds are stacked against free players, and I am not waking up in the middle of the night for this stuff.

telankesy
07-22-2012, 08:40 AM
I too have experienced that faster starts and always get stuck on 8 or 9 (I don't try hourly, my fault for getting outdoors every once in a while)

Not saying it does or doesn't happen, just saying that if the players are merely competing against each other, it wouldn't make sense to make the degree of difficulty progressive.

I refuse to try hard at leaderboard events. The odds are stacked against free players, and I am not waking up in the middle of the night for this stuff.

It does make sense for up to item 20, as the item for the 15th open is worth about 150 gold and the 20th open is about 300 gold (rough estimates), if the chance of open was the same for 15th - 20th as it is for 0 - 5th, then most ppl who opens 10+ times a day should be able to get to 20.

But I agree with you after the 20th open, there is no point in decreasing the chance of open.

Max Power
07-22-2012, 08:42 AM
It does make sense for up to item 20, as the item for the 15th open is worth about 150 gold and the 20th open is about 300 gold (rough estimates), if the chance of open was the same for 15th - 20th as it is for 0 - 5th, then most ppl who opens 10+ times a day should be able to get to 20.

But I agree with you after the 20th open, there is no point in decreasing the chance of open.

Fair point, and I was going to put the disclaimer in that Gree wouldn't want to just give away the level 5-20 weapons.

_dan_
07-22-2012, 08:50 AM
It does make sense for up to item 20, as the item for the 15th open is worth about 150 gold and the 20th open is about 300 gold (rough estimates), if the chance of open was the same for 15th - 20th as it is for 0 - 5th, then most ppl who opens 10+ times a day should be able to get to 20.

But I agree with you after the 20th open, there is no point in decreasing the chance of open.

There is a point to decrease the chance after 20th. It makes top weapons harder to get, and in order to join in top 250 or top 25, one have to pay much more than other to deserve it.

for example, suppose you need 30 to be in top 250, 29 items is out; it does not simply pay 200 gold to get the 30th, you need to pay like 600 gold, you have to pay much more than other to get it, if you give up too soon or you can't afford it, you'll lose.

_dan_
07-22-2012, 09:12 AM
One more point to make it harder when having more items is that will keep people continue race for top.

If items are easy to get, I believe the top players may reach to 1000s or 10,000 items too quickly, that will scare people away when seeing that huge number, "no way I can make it" and they will give up sooner.

Gree(d)/Funkio know gamblers only pay if they think they will win, if it look like there is no chance to win, no one will pay.