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View Full Version : Event open odds seem to have changed for the Cash option



BeniBugatti
07-18-2012, 07:13 AM
Does anyone else feel that Funzio tweaked the percentage of item opens for
the Sealed Crate/Nitrous Tank and Samurai Chest/Katana Shard events.

Using the cash option I am seeing a 50% decline in opens of any kind versus
the Electronic Safe/Computer Chip event.

Maybe "Better Luck Next Time" should be changed to "Better Luck Last Time"

Is it just me?

Olly1
07-18-2012, 07:16 AM
If you're basing your rates on 6 opens (6 hours in to the event) then you should wait until you can get a more accurate average.

hinofwars
07-18-2012, 07:17 AM
In the current event, 4 fails out of 4 tries with cash option. So I think they have change it to 0%. :p

Edit: just try my 5th time, and it is a fail again.

2nd edit: my 6th is fail, 6 out of 6.

Gaming Will
07-18-2012, 07:27 AM
1 open for 1 try for me.

Bala82
07-18-2012, 08:01 AM
nope i getting most open in 2-3 attempts using cash option but i do notice last day it harder to open but on first day i so far open 2 successfully. :)

AppleMacGuy
07-18-2012, 08:10 AM
Does anyone else feel that Funzio tweaked the percentage of item opens for
the Sealed Crate/Nitrous Tank and Samurai Chest/Katana Shard events.

Using the cash option I am seeing a 50% decline in opens of any kind versus
the Electronic Safe/Computer Chip event.

Maybe "Better Luck Next Time" should be changed to "Better Luck Last Time"

Is it just me?

I think it's just you...I don't have my data from the last event to hand but IIRC the cash open rates were 'normal'...I'll post them later. FWIW, I didn't have any great luck initially with the last event using cash opens but in 6 opens on this event I've had 2 Fails and 4 Nitrous Tanks, which is pretty good luck...note the emphasis :rolleyes:

montecore
07-18-2012, 09:02 AM
The odds obviously change depending on how many pieces you have. I think cash or free are designed to get you 10 pieces or so with the idea you'll get close enough to feel a need to buy gold.

I'm considering doing 100% free (as in no in game cash) this time around to see what I end up with.

Olly1
07-18-2012, 09:16 AM
The odds obviously change depending on how many pieces you have. I think cash or free are designed to get you 10 pieces or so with the idea you'll get close enough to feel a need to buy gold.

I'm considering doing 100% free (as in no in game cash) this time around to see what I end up with.

Would be interested to see your results on that too. I don't think any other forum members have given that a go....

BeniBugatti
07-18-2012, 09:25 AM
My results:

Computer Chip = 27 chips, with aprox 12-17 open attempts per day.
Katana Shards = 14 in regular time, with 12-17 opens per day.
Also I got 1 more Katana Shard in OT after 8 tries...

Current event 8 tries, all have been Better Luck Next Times.

You'd have to admit that it is pretty easy to see why I might think that they tweaked it.
However, I'm an engineer and do have a great grasp of statistics and how Random Numbers are generated, so I can also accept that I just happen to have been on both sides of the bell curve.

Oh well.

montecore
07-18-2012, 09:29 AM
Just based on what I've seen with open rates and robbing people who out level me, it appears they use an algorithm that goes out of it's way to not alternate between positive and negative. In other words, if you have true 50/50 odds the game is going to give you four in a row open/four in a row closed before it will alternate open/closed/open/closed.

Even if the odds were 20/80 I'd expect to get two in a row and eight failures in a row (or even four/sixteen).

BeniBugatti
07-18-2012, 09:40 AM
Just based on what I've seen with open rates and robbing people who out level me, it appears they use an algorithm that goes out of it's way to not alternate between positive and negative. In other words, if you have true 50/50 odds the game is going to give you four in a row open/four in a row closed before it will alternate open/closed/open/closed.

Even if the odds were 20/80 I'd expect to get two in a row and eight failures in a row (or even four/sixteen).

That line of thinking is consistent with the players who advocate a farming pattern of try three farms then if you fail, fail, fail give up for a while before you try again.

I have not seen any kind of statistical analysis of this approach, perhaps one of the spreadsheet guys has some insights or data?

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 10:18 AM
If you're basing your rates on 6 opens (6 hours in to the event) then you should wait until you can get a more accurate average.

Well then let's base it on the last event...no 6 hours/6 opens excuse there...just plain dismal open rates with anything but gold.

Judges...that's what I thought...

Olly1
07-18-2012, 10:28 AM
Well then let's base it on the last event...no 6 hours/6 opens excuse there...just plain dismal open rates with anything but gold.

Judges...that's what I thought...

Interesting figures you presented to the judges there.

I always thought the open rate was particularly sucky for me until I actually logged my opens. Addmitadly I don't think they were 50% but it wasnt a million miles away.

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 10:54 AM
Interesting figures you presented to the judges there.

I always thought the open rate was particularly sucky for me until I actually logged my opens. Addmitadly I don't think they were 50% but it wasnt a million miles away.

Hey not all suppositions or deductions need to be based on figures and/or facts...look at George W...first president to start a war without congressional approval and it was all built around the WMD crap that we later found to be a complete joke. If the president can operate that way in regards to starting wars than I can follow suit on Crime City forum posts! :)
Maybe it's not as bad as some say but I'll say this...I believe that people experience 0-for-15 or 0-for-20 streaks on opens (I've easily had me a couple 0-for-10's at a minimum) and NEVER will you see it the other way around on cash option opens where someone gets 15-20 consecutive successful opens...does someone care to prove me wrong?
P.S. 'admittedly'

Cracka Jack
07-18-2012, 11:03 AM
Way to somehow bring George W. Bush into this, dumbass.


Hey not all suppositions or deductions need to be based on figures and/or facts...look at George W...first president to start a war without congressional approval and it was all built around the WMD crap that we later found to be a complete joke. If the president can operate that way in regards to starting wars than I can follow suit on Crime City forum posts! :)
Maybe it's not as bad as some say but I'll say this...I believe that people experience 0-for-15 or 0-for-20 streaks on opens (I've easily had me a couple 0-for-10's at a minimum) and NEVER will you see it the other way around on cash option opens where someone gets 15-20 consecutive successful opens...does someone care to prove me wrong?
P.S. 'admittedly'

ColdMaffiaBaroness
07-18-2012, 11:19 AM
Hey not all suppositions or deductions need to be based on figures and/or facts...look at George W...first president to start a war without congressional approval and it was all built around the WMD crap that we later found to be a complete joke. If the president can operate that way in regards to starting wars than I can follow suit on Crime City forum posts! :)
Maybe it's not as bad as some say but I'll say this...I believe that people experience 0-for-15 or 0-for-20 streaks on opens (I've easily had me a couple 0-for-10's at a minimum) and NEVER will you see it the other way around on cash option opens where someone gets 15-20 consecutive successful opens...does someone care to prove me wrong?
P.S. 'admittedly'

At post #6 you should be saying things like... Hey who is this white frog and what an awesome worksheet.
Posts about GWB and WMD is absolutely imbecile.

Swifty
07-18-2012, 11:21 AM
I have one successful open in my first ten tries with the "Fair" option.

Max Power
07-18-2012, 11:25 AM
2 of 5.

Anybody who treis to draw conclusions out of such a small test sample apparantly would rather be in the prognostication business rather than the data business.

Engineer or not.

vitus79
07-18-2012, 11:28 AM
opened 5 of 10, playing since it started and i have 5 items alrdy. cash option. but sure i had no consecutive opens, always at least one fail between

vitus79
07-18-2012, 11:31 AM
2 of 5.

Anybody who treis to draw conclusions out of such a small test sample apparantly would rather be in the prognostication business rather than the data business.

Engineer or not.

This. always smiling if i see Max around. btw add me back plz 👍

DenZ1
07-18-2012, 11:32 AM
2 out of 5. Both Nitros.

cwracing
07-18-2012, 11:38 AM
0 for 6, all cash option.
Think im going to the free option since non gold spenders dont matter in these events anyway.

vitus79
07-18-2012, 11:49 AM
0 for 6, all cash option.
Think im going to the free option since non gold spenders dont matter in these events anyway.

true. its all about milking the cow those days.
still, with some luck and effort you could get 3 maybe 4 free items. i would hate to skip them coz only using free attempts. whats the money good for, i also dont use gold on this but my economy.

len
07-18-2012, 12:23 PM
0 / 4 in-game cash so far

bleh. I should just save my money.

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 01:36 PM
Way to somehow bring George W. Bush into this, dumbass.

Another ignorant person blind to GW's misgivings I see... Hey do me a favor you ignorant as shole...go fu ck yourself before you come at me again like that you POS. Deal? Good...now crawl back in your hole and go molest your cousin some more to keep that gene pool of yours nice and mutated...

Max Power
07-18-2012, 01:43 PM
This. always smiling if i see Max around. btw add me back plz 

Done.


Another ignorant person blah blah blah

Tick tock.......

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 02:45 PM
At post #6 you should be saying things like... Hey who is this white frog and what an awesome worksheet.
Posts about GWB and WMD is absolutely imbecile.

That's funny cuz your grammar is horrendous yet you ramble on. A post can't be an imbecile but a person can if that is what you were tryin to say don't worry I did the part where one of us has to use their brains to deliver the message successfully

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 03:24 PM
...to tell me I was wrong...

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 03:34 PM
...to tell me I was wrong...

And her post disappeared...interesting

montecore
07-18-2012, 04:11 PM
Can't guarantee I'll stick to it but my first four opens were all free (no cash):

1) better luck next time
2) nitro
3) better luck next time
4) better luck next time

I would like to get the first two items and the odd enforcer jacket so I may start using in game cash but I'll try to stick to the truly free routine.

outbackhat
07-18-2012, 04:44 PM
Another ignorant person blind to GW's misgivings I see... Hey do me a favor you ignorant as shole...go fu ck yourself before you come at me again like that you POS. Deal? Good...now crawl back in your hole and go molest your cousin some more to keep that gene pool of yours nice and mutated...

You obviously are not smart enough to make intelligent decisions, as such finish school where they will give you instruction in how to think, Correction what to think, so when you enter real world you will learn how to think for yourself. This is not the place for political discussions either way.

cwracing
07-18-2012, 04:45 PM
0 / 11. All cash option.

Deluxe
07-18-2012, 05:23 PM
You obviously are not smart enough to make intelligent decisions, as such finish school where they will give you instruction in how to think, Correction what to think, so when you enter real world you will learn how to think for yourself. This is not the place for political discussions either way.

Re-read your own words before you tell someone else that they are not smart...the idiots are people like you who think I was starting a political discussion and got their panties wedged up their gaping berginas...I made a reference to something that did, in fact, occur as a means by which to segway into my final CC related thought...did you see me challenge all republicans and tell them they are idiots and that their political platforms are erred...? No, didn't think so so take your English language-butchering self back to whatever pathetic corner of this earth you came from...thanks sweetie!!

And your intelligence really shines thru when you tell someone to 'go to school so they can teach you how to think...and what to think...so that I can then think for myself when I enter the real world...' do you see the contradictions there or is your grasp of the English language so lamentable that you can't even follow me?

outbackhat
07-18-2012, 05:24 PM
Guy check out WWW.FRANKSDIRTYHACKING.COM
The firs 50 individuals to leave a comment on the blog or uses the contact form will receive a Crime City prize.
Hurry before it is too late.

Low I.Q. scum shame you are too stupid to play without cheating.

montecore
07-18-2012, 08:32 PM
Can't guarantee I'll stick to it but my first four opens were all free (no cash):

1) better luck next time
2) nitro
3) better luck next time
4) better luck next time

I would like to get the first two items and the odd enforcer jacket so I may start using in game cash but I'll try to stick to the truly free routine.

5) Fail
6) Fail
7) Nitro

Chester78
07-18-2012, 10:01 PM
...the idiots are people like you who think I was starting a political discussion and got their panties wedged up their gaping berginas...I made a reference to something that did, in fact, occur as a means by which to segway into my final CC related thought...

*segue (A "Segway" is a "two wheeled self-balancing personal transport".)

Please take your political conspiracy theories elsewhere. They don't belong on this forum.

NV555
07-18-2012, 10:26 PM
All Cash Options

1. Better Luck
2. Nitro
3. Nitro
4. Nitro

However I have seen my loot drop from farming drop to very low odds however since the event started I did get a bloody AK 47 from a PVP Attack been a long time since I had one drop.

cwracing
07-18-2012, 11:24 PM
0 / 17 all cash option. WTF!!!!!!!!!

NV555
07-19-2012, 01:15 AM
All Cast Options

1. Better Luck
2. Nitro
3. Nitro
4. Nitro
5. Nitro

My loot has droped off to Zero still.

Tomatoneverdie
07-19-2012, 02:18 PM
The opening rate is crapper for me too....1 open and 8 fails since this morning....argh....