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PawnXIIX
07-13-2012, 04:40 PM
Anyone else having lots of problems opening the boxes in this event? I hit 10 then failed 16 times in a row before opening one, then since then I've failed another 10.

What gives?

I've never had results tank this badly ever before. Assuming the odds of a fair opening are 50% it carries the odds of 1 in 66,666.666 to fail 16 in a row. (.5 ^ 16)

Running an algorithm I average only a result of a maximum 12 fails in a row in 10,000 trial random generations.

The opening was simulated 10,000 times with a 50% open rate and the maximum streak of fails rarely exceeded 10.

People suspected the fair rate isn't fair...but this is the first evidence I feel that it truly isn't "fair".

WinkadInk
07-13-2012, 04:43 PM
I've opened 7 boxes out of 3 days worth of tries almost every hour. Only 5 were shards, definately changed a lot to force to pay.

DLSmooth
07-13-2012, 04:46 PM
14 outta my last 15 have been fails with the only open in the middle being my 10th shard. These events are definitely not geared for the free player....

xXSycoXx
07-13-2012, 04:47 PM
I agree completely last event I got 27 all by medium option
This event opened the same per day stuck on 7 just hoping I can get to 10 for the car

No way am I chucking any gold in a event any longer

jobadass
07-13-2012, 04:49 PM
horrible. I guess "I" is getting the shards. I'm up to 8 and was at 7 two days ago. (Shruggs)

dudeman
07-13-2012, 04:57 PM
I have over 40 fails already, many of them coming in streaks, and I've only made about 70 attempts.

That doesn't seem like much of an anomaly compared to overall event results, but I want to know why no one ever reports any open streaks that run up to 12-16 consecutive opens. If it was truly a "fair" chance, the odds of a long open streak should be the same as the odds of long fail streaks. That has never been the case.

PawnXIIX
07-13-2012, 05:11 PM
Who wants to see just one event be completely fair and not about profit. Lets see how it goes.

I can feel that people in touch with the forums would do the best since we know that it comes down to us opening the most...and I don't see many people outside the forums really going on such OCD basis when it comes to opening on time.

jobadass
07-13-2012, 05:12 PM
Excellent, good, fair, poor... Fair is never good enough, bottom of the scale.

Beardy
07-13-2012, 05:14 PM
I have over 40 fails already, many of them coming in streaks, and I've only made about 70 attempts.

That doesn't seem like much of an anomaly compared to overall event results, but I want to know why no one ever reports any open streaks that run up to 12-16 consecutive opens. If it was truly a "fair" chance, the odds of a long open streak should be the same as the odds of long fail streaks. That has never been the case.

+1...............

outbackhat
07-13-2012, 05:17 PM
Guess I've been getting them all. Had 8 yesterday and 21 now, switched to gold this morning. used a few resets so also got 6 of other stuff instead. Got the event to load with only 4 days left two nights ago, so overall shard rate has been good.

DenZ1
07-13-2012, 05:20 PM
I have over 40 fails already, many of them coming in streaks, and I've only made about 70 attempts.

That doesn't seem like much of an anomaly compared to overall event results, but I want to know why no one ever reports any open streaks that run up to 12-16 consecutive opens. If it was truly a "fair" chance, the odds of a long open streak should be the same as the odds of long fail streaks. That has never been the case.
+1. But partially it explained that open "fair" chance is about 30% not 50%
I had same question before. Fishy.

Beardy
07-13-2012, 05:29 PM
Guess I've been getting them all. Had 8 yesterday and 21 now, switched to gold this morning. used a few resets so also got 6 of other stuff instead. Got the event to load with only 4 days left two nights ago, so overall shard rate has been good.

Well yeah.... when you spend gold it is.

outbackhat
07-13-2012, 05:37 PM
Have spent only $50, And last time had to spend 150 for same rate of item, so my point was more to the aspect of shards showing up. Like I also said first 16 hours were in game cash only and got 8. To me that is 50%.

k0de
07-13-2012, 06:24 PM
Have spent only $50, And last time had to spend 150 for same rate of item, so my point was more to the aspect of shards showing up. Like I also said first 16 hours were in game cash only and got 8. To me that is 50%.
For $50 you could have bought a case of beer and had change. Instead, you're barely in the top 250 with no guarantee you'll stay there. Just sayin'...

jobadass
07-13-2012, 06:26 PM
For $50 you could have bought a case of beer and had change. Instead, you're barely in the top 250 with no guarantee you'll stay there. Just sayin'...Yes, but beer falls into the explosives category, consumable.

Beardy
07-13-2012, 06:29 PM
Yes, but beer falls into the explosives category, consumable.

What are you going to have to show for spending your $50 at the end of event?

br.jellema
07-13-2012, 06:31 PM
Then so far I'm not doing to bad (Android player, all cash, lazy);

http://i48.tinypic.com/17xumq.jpg

outbackhat
07-13-2012, 06:36 PM
For $50 you could have bought a case of beer and had change. Instead, you're barely in the top 250 with no guarantee you'll stay there. Just sayin'...

I don't drink, gave it up 16 years ago, and I only want top 250 item for the fact it would give me 300 attack skill. And I have more to spend because I don't drink, I used to spend $200 plus a day on booze, hence this is alot cheaper.

ruffy
07-13-2012, 07:09 PM
There is a reason y the middle option is changed to fair chance.

Probably 20-30% success imo.

Rodimus
07-13-2012, 08:37 PM
I haven't spent gold at all and this is my 1st event since late May and I'm cool with that. I just wanted to try it out to see the difference from the old event style. I have 14 Shards all with "fair chance" so far.

PawnXIIX
07-14-2012, 01:00 AM
Just failed again. That brings my current streak to 12.

So this event alone i've hit 16 streak then now a 12 streak...

...eh...?

NTM
07-14-2012, 01:43 AM
a lot of fail now yeah but that normal, they adjust all time.. more u got more u fail...

i noticed yesterday at the same time i fail on Ios and Android not a coincidence, all fail at same time but after midnight i succes again 2 time at same time ^^

NTM
07-14-2012, 01:57 AM
that normal i think now they want playes who buy Gold, u don't fail with Gold, more frustation more buyer

LOL true..

outbackhat
07-14-2012, 02:49 AM
You do fail to get item with gold. I can tell you deviant coats and $10000 for 15 gold and more if you had done a reset bites a big hairy **** but happens about 40-50% of time or more.

PawnXIIX
07-14-2012, 04:36 AM
a lot of fail now yeah but that normal, they adjust all time.. more u got more u fail...

I only have 12. The cutoff is 22 right now for the top 250... :S