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View Full Version : Seems as if it medium chance isn't even a medium chance.



OG Kush
06-05-2012, 07:48 PM
That may sound weird. It's more of a 20% chance of getting anything and a .5% after the first two days. The point of the event is for funzio to get money. I get that. But give my cash a little more of a chance.

I'm just frustrated about the sorry better luck next time.

I should have better luck after getting that message. Right? It said so..

-OG Kush

mnju_03
06-05-2012, 07:53 PM
I get some with medium... not 10 but some.

Babytway
06-05-2012, 08:06 PM
i said this before in other threads about events. but here it goes again. when these events first started CC Mark posted about the events saying that the more event items you get the less percentage of getthign the later ones most likely 8,9,10. also was stated that free chance was small chance of opening and cash option was medium chance of opening. but i believe after the first three events they have changed it that the medium chance of opening has its percentages lowers once you reach 7,8,9 artifacts. last 3 events i have tested and notice that the first and second day medium chance is great right up until i get the 7th then ive notice that meduim chance takes a nose dive.

mnju_03
06-05-2012, 08:07 PM
i said this before in other threads about events. but here it goes again. when these events first started CC Mark posted about the events saying that the more event items you get the less percentage of getthign the later ones most likely 8,9,10. also was stated that free chance was small chance of opening and cash option was medium chance of opening. but i believe after the first three events they have changed it that the medium chance of opening has its percentages lowers once you reach 7,8,9 artifacts. last 3 events i have tested and notice that the first and second day medium chance is great right up until i get the 7th then ive notice that meduim chance takes a nose dive.

Probably because due to all the players the amount that does purchase gold for winning turns into decent profits..?

RijilV
06-05-2012, 08:35 PM
the open rate does feel like it goes down, but what for certain goes down is the event item rate. Last two events I've opened well over 200 while at 9 and gotten but enhanced bikes and the like. Does feel like there is some weighting so that folks with more event items have less of a chance (I have 5)

PawnXIIX
06-05-2012, 08:37 PM
You're right, it is not a medium chance. I have a 66% open rate from this event so far.

It is a pretty fair chance in my opinion. However the artifact drop rate is just obscenely low...

Eyelusion
06-05-2012, 08:42 PM
the open rate does feel like it goes down, but what for certain goes down is the event item rate. Last two events I've opened well over 200 while at 9 and gotten but enhanced bikes and the like. Does feel like there is some weighting so that folks with more event items have less of a chance (I have 5)

I'm confused again. Obviously, with over 200 openings, you had to be doing resets with gold...then doing "medium chance"...errr....

PawnXIIX
06-05-2012, 08:43 PM
Pretty sure he's saying he opened 200 over the course of both the events... 100 average per event

Eyelusion
06-05-2012, 08:49 PM
You're right. Sorry for the misread.

Using the current contest with my odds and every time using "medium chance":

Artifacts 1-7: 100%
Artifact 8 = 1/7 = 14%
Artifact 9 = 1/17 = 6%
Artifact 10 = 0/42 and counting = 0%

I hope this doesn't take 100 openings. I don't know if I have the time to get their after 73 openings now. That's 28 more. If I didn't sleep and didn't win, hitting medium on every chance with 28 left, I would hit 100 exactly.

I don't feel like I've slept much already. Lucky I can play CC while at work.

PawnXIIX
06-05-2012, 09:30 PM
I really slacked off this event. I only attempted 36 so far, #37 is coming up soon.

Too much sleep this event I suppose.

OG Kush
06-05-2012, 09:40 PM
I have yet to get 10 whatever even with gold. That's why I'm frustrated. Atleast make a higher chance rate too. Like an extra 0 to make a higher chance in something.

Timbathia
06-05-2012, 09:42 PM
I guess it comes down to whether you expect medium chance to mean 50% or not, but it does seem close to that without having bothered recording any data.

I have never spent any gold and participated in every event probably averaging about 10 opens per day. I have only got one end item (Devil's take down), and I had that half way through the third day of the event.

As a mid-strength level player, I love getting all the pimp lowriders, enhanced bikes, secutiry batons etc., as all that equipment gets used. Events are a nice way to add a couple hundred cheap points to my attack and def scores.

gem
06-06-2012, 01:40 AM
My open rate with cash is at 45% in my last 40 opens =/ ~ stuck on 8 artifacts atm ..

PawnXIIX
06-06-2012, 01:44 AM
Funzio is spying on me, they know my in game name. I posted my high open rate, and now here's my last 6 attempts:

34. Fail
35. Fail
36. Fail
37. Fail
38. Fail
39. Fail

._.

Ranier
06-06-2012, 06:43 AM
i said this before in other threads about events. but here it goes again. when these events first started CC Mark posted about the events saying that the more event items you get the less percentage of getthign the later ones most likely 8,9,10. also was stated that free chance was small chance of opening and cash option was medium chance of opening. but i believe after the first three events they have changed it that the medium chance of opening has its percentages lowers once you reach 7,8,9 artifacts. last 3 events i have tested and notice that the first and second day medium chance is great right up until i get the 7th then ive notice that meduim chance takes a nose dive.

Excellent point after I acquired 5/6 I noticed a significant decrease in stuff I received, whether it was artifacts or swag...however I got the 10 I need and currently running amok. Also used all I game money.

hinofwars
06-06-2012, 06:49 AM
Funzio is spying on me, they know my in game name. I posted my high open rate, and now here's my last 6 attempts:

34. Fail
35. Fail
36. Fail
37. Fail
38. Fail
39. Fail

._.

Don't worry because I have about 20 fails in a row in one of the event.

Swifty
06-06-2012, 07:24 AM
I always use the medium option, and while it might average out about 50%, I get some streaks of fails to open.

In the current event, 9 of the first 10 attempts were fails.

I am stuck at 8 artifacts, but since getting 8, the open rate has been over 50%, mostly useless trash like enhanced bikes.

Don Clyde
06-06-2012, 07:35 AM
So it almost seems once you get the 7th whatever just quit wasting your money.

I should be spending on needed items not gambling on never happen.

DenZ1
06-06-2012, 07:43 AM
So it almost seems once you get the 7th whatever just quit wasting your money.

I should be spending on needed items not gambling on never happen.

You probably should. I still do though :( THere is a limit on how much gold I'll spend and its coming close pretty fast :(

Max Power
06-06-2012, 08:06 AM
This stuff should be obvious to everyone by now. The statistical probabilities have been pretty well laid out, and using a test case of one means little.

Over the 8 or 9 events, every event I have used gold I have gotten 10 (with 1 exception) and every event I have used cash I get stuck by 8.

Of course there are exceptions to this, but if you want a reasonable chance of getting the item, rather than counting on being a statistical anomoly, you have to spend gold, sometimes a lot of it. That's pretty much it.

I think the Emerald Burner is an anomoly event, since most everybody had real trouble with that one.

DenZ1
06-06-2012, 08:29 AM
This stuff should be obvious to everyone by now. The statistical probabilities have been pretty well laid out, and using a test case of one means little.

Over the 8 or 9 events, every event I have used gold I have gotten 10 (with 1 exception) and every event I have used cash I get stuck by 8.

Of course there are exceptions to this, but if you want a reasonable chance of getting the item, rather than counting on being a statistical anomoly, you have to spend gold, sometimes a lot of it. That's pretty much it.

I think the Emerald Burner is an anomoly event, since most everybody had real trouble with that one.

that one was a test pilot for all future event. Since Sig was pretty easy to get for most, they over-screwed it by quite a bit :) Then after that fiasco they fine-tuned it a bit and things rolling at current pace for last 6-7 events.

Due to different duration, i think they do make some adjustments to get higher chances, but they clearly did forget to adjust this one to 5 day duration..
doh.. :)