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View Full Version : Have drop rates changed recently?



Vicious...
05-26-2012, 02:34 AM
I've recently been farming NATO gas masks at the airport on and off and now I can't pull one out. With a ~20% drop rate, my luck can't be that bad. Are there any confirmed changes lately?

Dr BoneCrusher
05-26-2012, 03:20 AM
Don't think so I do this one as well. They drop rate is very streaky you can go 8 or 9 with nothing then get 3 in a row.

Vicious...
05-26-2012, 03:29 AM
Alright. Yeah, I've gotten 3 in a row before, but I'm talking upwards of 12 attempts, probably closer to 15. Don't know the count for sure because I'm switching between the masks and stone hammers.

PawnXIIX
05-26-2012, 03:32 AM
I've recently been farming NATO gas masks at the airport on and off and now I can't pull one out. With a ~20% drop rate, my luck can't be that bad. Are there any confirmed changes lately?

They have a ~1/5 chance of dropping but if you add that up that means you don't even get 1 per 1000 energy spent. That is quite an impressive drop rate and I farmed about 30 so far, so you get my approval on the spot. The Control Tower average .9 drops per 1000. According to statistics and bell curves that means that you have a 99.7% chance of getting 1 within 4 standard deviations from the medium. You are averaging 1 per every 1,111 and you have a 99.7% chance of getting a drop within 4 deviations, or 4,444.

I believe i'm remembering AP Stat...that was over a year ago now xD

Vicious...
05-26-2012, 03:37 AM
Ugh, statistics. I'd rather model a diffeq. Yeah, yeah I know...I'm playing the wrong game.

PawnXIIX
05-26-2012, 03:44 AM
I doubt my math is correct, i was coming back here to edit it.

Basically the only thing you need to know is that one stat...drops per 1000 energy. That's available in most spreadsheets. There's the drop rate chance for the final tap, then right next to it is the drops per 1000 energy. Using that you can calculate the actual energy on average that you can expect to drop an item. I like the NATO gas mask because it drops at 19% and it's only 1 tap and I can get a lot of attempts at it when I wake up. With my 1470 current energy i'm averaging 1.3 drops every time I dump my energy. However that is never the case because each event is mutually exclusive from the rest.

It's like flipping a coin. No matter how many times heads comes up in a row there is still a 50% chance the next flip will be tails. These are just theoretical limits to gauge what to expect :)

Yay math.

Dr BoneCrusher
05-26-2012, 03:50 AM
Take a look at church in Old San Juan it gives the spiked hammer 13 attack and 8 defense at about 1 per 1000 energy

Vicious...
05-26-2012, 03:51 AM
Yeah...as soon I go back after making this thread, I pull out two in a row. ~_~


Yay math that isn't statistics.

PawnXIIX
05-26-2012, 03:53 AM
Right now i'm trying to pull a second double decker out of the airport...if not i'm just going to go find some ECBs whenever I actually unlock a decent dropping area...

The spreadsheet I have says .72 at 1000 energy for the spiked hammer...sounds tempting :P