Strange.

[OG Kush]

This is kinda weird what has happened during the whatever box event. I have gotten 8 out of 10 things cash only on the first day. Then I'm still at 8. I haven't got another 1 for 6 days. I think this is a way for funzio to say that I'm so close to the end price already I should just spend gold to finish it off. Well haha I'm not ever spending gold on an event ever again. Has anybody else had a problem like this once?

-OG Kush
297-065-557

[nvbealone]

you're not alone, same here. i got 8 since day 2 and ever since. i believe there are many others out there like you and i.

[dudeman]

Same here. Happened last event too (and with the first two events). Got to 8 in less than two days, and nothing ever again. To be fair though, I have received 2 end prizes without using gold, but the other two that I have I used gold to get. I was still lucky though because the two that I got using cold cost only 435 combined.

The fact remains though, your chances are not good if you plan to not use any gold at all.

[Nudie]

I guess I'm a liitle luckier sitting at 9. Will likely end with 9 too. I was burnt in a previous event spending gold trying for number 10 unsuccessfully. Never again.

[PawnXIIX]

I give a pretty high guess that when funzio made the events the way it picks the random numbers is something like this:

If the number of boxes is less than 8 then it determines your odds based on a geometric function, that is the more you have the lower you odds are but your odds decrease at an even rate. Example:

With 2 gun parts you have a 1/7 chance if opened
3: 1/9 if opened
4: 1/11 if opened
5: 1/13 if opened

with that algorithm being x = 1/(3+(2*boxes))

A rather simple example that decreases your odds at a definite and exact rate.

and your odds of failing increase also with a similar function.

0 parts: 1/2 chance of open
1 parts: 1/2 chance of open
2 parts: 1/3 chance of open
3 parts: 1/3 chance of open
4 parts: 1/4 chance of opening
so on and so forth until 8 of course, then the algorithm just goes somewhere.

Assuming this is the programming language dividing with integer division:

x = 1/(2+(boxes/2))


But once you get to 8 i think that the algorithm just takes some hardcore jump to like, an insane number like 1/30 chance of finding a gun part IF you still manage to open it. Just my thought. My guess is that it uses a geometric sequence until you get the 8th crate then it switches to an exponential function or something that as you progress it just gets multiple times more difficult.

Also i'm in no way even saying this is what they use to determine odds I was just trying to provide examples of if this was my random event, how from a programming standpoint I would hope to accomplish this task of providing a steeper difficulty as the event progressed.

For anyone who is concerned, or curious, i'm a Computer Scientist major, but if I start rambling on with nonsense and incoherence please stop me immediately and call the paramedics.

[cwracing]

I got 8 the second day and then 9 two days ago and the 10th yesterday. All cash option and not hitting every hour just when ever I had time. Been randomly hitting them still since only just the free option and still getting decent stuff including $125k.
Theres still time, I wish you luck.

[emcee]

Same here stuck at 8 for days. However, did get 2 end event items prior but more or less at the 11th hour.

[Dr. Dengus]

For anyone who is concerned, or curious, i'm a Computer Scientist major, but if I start rambling on with nonsense and incoherence please stop me immediately and call the paramedics.

Haha no worries, I enjoyed your post , ramble on! As a statistics major this is something I've been curious about as well. If I had enough free time I'd dig through the event logs and create a nice data set. Would love to accurately estimate these probabilities as well.

[PawnXIIX]

Would love to accurately estimate these probabilities as well.

Honestly though it's as if the randomness of these events isn't random. Next event I'm going to plot all the attempts and fails and I guarantee after a certain point it deviates from random drastically...I feel like around gold gun part 7/8 it stops becoming random or at least skews away from the bell curve that a random distribution should provide...

If getting the gun parts are truly random to begin with, that is. D:

[Daniel2115]

Havnt had a gun part in 5days either!!

[sexkitteh]

I would be happy to get to seven :(

[DenZ1]

Honestly though it's as if the randomness of these events isn't random. Next event I'm going to plot all the attempts and fails and I guarantee after a certain point it deviates from random drastically...I feel like around gold gun part 7/8 it stops becoming random or at least skews away from the bell curve that a random distribution should provide...

If getting the gun parts are truly random to begin with, that is. D:

I've been saying this since second event. Funzio random is not that random at all. There are way more to it then just randomness. Otherwise it'll defy statistical odds :)

[sexkitteh]

I've been saying this since second event. Funzio random is not that random at all. There are way more to it then just randomness. Otherwise it'll defy statistical odds :)

I think it is random, but the % changes at every level. Like a crate: 60% 25% 15%...

LV1 90%
LV2 80%
LV3 70%
LV4 60%
LV5 50%
LV6 40%
LV7 30%
LV8 20%
LV9 10%
LV10 1%

BUT random at every level...

[Babytway]

yes this happens to me the last 3 events i get 7 or 8 the first day then the drought sets in

[kimberleyj]

I give a pretty high guess that when funzio made the events the way it picks the random numbers is something like this:

If the number of boxes is less than 8 then it determines your odds based on a geometric function, that is the more you have the lower you odds are but your odds decrease at an even rate. Example:

With 2 gun parts you have a 1/7 chance if opened
3: 1/9 if opened
4: 1/11 if opened
5: 1/13 if opened

with that algorithm being x = 1/(3+(2*boxes))

A rather simple example that decreases your odds at a definite and exact rate.

and your odds of failing increase also with a similar function.

0 parts: 1/2 chance of open
1 parts: 1/2 chance of open
2 parts: 1/3 chance of open
3 parts: 1/3 chance of open
4 parts: 1/4 chance of opening
so on and so forth until 8 of course, then the algorithm just goes somewhere.

Assuming this is the programming language dividing with integer division:

x = 1/(2+(boxes/2))


But once you get to 8 i think that the algorithm just takes some hardcore jump to like, an insane number like 1/30 chance of finding a gun part IF you still manage to open it. Just my thought. My guess is that it uses a geometric sequence until you get the 8th crate then it switches to an exponential function or something that as you progress it just gets multiple times more difficult.

Also i'm in no way even saying this is what they use to determine odds I was just trying to provide examples of if this was my random event, how from a programming standpoint I would hope to accomplish this task of providing a steeper difficulty as the event progressed.

For anyone who is concerned, or curious, i'm a Computer Scientist major, but if I start rambling on with nonsense and incoherence please stop me immediately and call the paramedics.

during 1 event the most boxes i had was 5 at a time because i kept getting them nicked , that event cost me around 930 gold, the next event i had at least 40 boxes and only had to use 350 gold. so it doesn't matter how many boxes you have.

[DenZ1]

I think it is random, but the % changes at every level. Like a crate: 60% 25% 15%...

LV1 90%
LV2 80%
LV3 70%
LV4 60%
LV5 50%
LV6 40%
LV7 30%
LV8 20%
LV9 10%
LV10 1%

BUT random at every level...

Maybe till #8. Then it definitely behaves not 100% random. Random is obviously a part of it but it is not straight random %.

[DenZ1]

Anyway. It's a time waste to figure out possible formulas plus it is not fun anyway. It is what it is.

[Max Power]

Anyway. It's a time waste to figure out possible formulas plus it is not fun anyway. It is what it is.

Exactly.

This board is king at taking small statistical samples and trying to formulate logic out of it. There just isn't enough data on an individual basis to arrive at any accurate or meaningful conclusions. That being said, I have some opinions:

1. I believe that each level has it's own statistical probability of being a gun part based on the level, and level only. It would be silly to program all sorts of parameters into it. And counterproductive.

2. I think we know that there is a drop off the higher you get. I think the biggest statistical drop occurs after number 7 has been achieved, and then after 9 is achieved.

3. Given that I use gold to open in these events, I have eliminated the open vs. non-open factor, and I think about 60 tries if the most I have had to do over all the events to get the 10th item. I think the 1% number is too low for level 9 to get the 10th. My guess would be about 3% chance.

4. All evidence here, from people getting 9 and 10 back to back, vs people going 100 times with nothing highlights the pure randomness of it. I think when you go to open the box, it sees what level you are at, and there is your percentage, simple as that.

5. Given the number of M4 witchcraft theories in regards to drop rates, I am confident that we will have about 800 more threads like this with about 800 more theories on crate openings.

[PawnXIIX]

Half the fun in it is figuring out the statistics of it. Personally I've taken apart games just to figure out how developers handled events and used that as a basis for learning in terms of going forward with my own skills.

I don't think it's a coincidence that everybody got several in a row. I know i failed the first 3 then immediately turned around and got 3 more in a row, then next thing i knew I had opened 5/6 in a row for gun parts. The more I look at it honestly the less it becomes random and more like just a list of items it gives out depending on which attempt number you're on.

Box 1 - if open give gun part
Box 2 - if open give gun part
Box 3 - if open give random reward
...
Box N - if open give gun part

I kinda imagine it as the ternary operator:

where:
X is the reward (object) and before the method is set to null
a = gun part (object)
b = random reward (object)
where n is the attempt number (integer)

if(open)
{
x = (isRewardGun(n) ? a : b); //if true, set x to a. Otherwise set x to b.
givePlayerReward(x);
}

where isRewardGun returns a boolean value. So basically there's a giant array of boolean values true or false that if it returns true will give the player a gun part. So it looks something like this:

{0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1...0};

If when accessing array element n-1 it is a 0 a.k.a. false, it will return a random reward scaled based upon the player level or cash reward scaled based on the money put in (for $8,700 i get $25,000 as a small prize and a big prize of $125,000). If however the number is a 1, or true, it will reward the player with a gun part. This would severely hamper the ability of the player trying to get later parts because it would rely on them opening up every single one. Even then if they do manage to open up every single one then the number of random rewards outweighs the number of gun parts with an overbalanced proportion.

Honestly if you don't want to read that...i'm extremely bored here :P

[John Snow]

I would be happy to get to seven :(

Me, too!!!!!

[sexkitteh]

Me, too!!!!!

I JUST OPENED 7! yay ^^

At least I got some descent gear to add to my arsenal...

With 13 hours to go - is it worth spending 10 bucks to least guarantee the opening of boxes?

[PawnXIIX]

At this point I'd be happy to get to 9 but i'm not exactly excited about the reward. 78/35 Prime, which in my views is not even as good as the 91/31 Executioner that I got at 7. To me it's just another attack beatstick but it's not exactly my concern :P

I am satisfied that I completed my goal of at least getting the Executioner ^^

[honghim]

At this point I'd be happy to get to 9 but i'm not exactly excited about the reward. 78/35 Prime, which in my views is not even as good as the 91/31 Executioner that I got at 7. To me it's just another attack beatstick but it's not exactly my concern :P

I am satisfied that I completed my goal of at least getting the Executioner ^^

I want the 9th item but stuck at 8 since day 2. The most important thing is all my tries are fails since yesterday.

[sexkitteh]

At this point I'd be happy to get to 9 but i'm not exactly excited about the reward. 78/35 Prime, which in my views is not even as good as the 91/31 Executioner that I got at 7. To me it's just another attack beatstick but it's not exactly my concern :P

I am satisfied that I completed my goal of at least getting the Executioner ^^

At MY level the other weapons blow compared to what you got...

AK 102 11/13 3gp
Reinforced Tonfa 24/19 5gp
Menacing Chaingun 26/33 7gp

Gold Plated Gun 123/89 +40% RP

[PawnXIIX]

It hasn't been so much failing, but i could do with a few less carnival sledgehammers. I had enough at 15.

And yes I do agree that the weapon scaling is quite dramatic but at the same point the executioner is the highest attack weapon that was offered which was not the final big prize. For the last few events the best items possible were the Deviant Rifle (63/37) and 2x Assassination Pistol at (60/40)

So I saw the 91 attack weapon and I thought WANT.

[Dreno33]

honghim!!! you iph... its.. beautiful!! care to post screenshots up on the boards?!?!? better yet start a new thread to post them up for us all to see. profile pic, and of your hood(: I'm exited to see it!

[sexkitteh]

BTW - what happens at 9? Is there a random new gun you can get or something?

The "other" stuff I've gotten is +1 mafia, cash, and DP Machinegun 5/10

[PawnXIIX]

Strangely that's the one thing I haven't gotten is gotten any +1 mafias and i've been opening about 17 a day.

At 9 there's another milestone on my screen for a 4th item before the big 10th item. The one I have is Prime (vehicle) 78/35

Other stuff: 500x RP, $25,000, $125,000, Carnival Sledgehammer (14/10), EU Security Baton (10/12), Colonel's Armored Vest (5/21), Enchanced Bike (9/9)

[sexkitteh]

damn... that is awesome...

I can't wait till the next event now :D

[PawnXIIX]

I'm a little disappointed in this one, for once I had all 7 days to get the 10th item and this isn't even the closest i've come. There's still 13 hours left, time will tell.

I got closer when it only gave me 5 day, I actually hit 9 that time but i've never claimed the 10th :/

Competed in every event thus far opening between 15 and 18 a day with cash options