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Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 06:47 AM
Anyone find after you won the devil's gun from a couple events ago your drop rates went down? I am level 79 so the airport is where I loot. I go between the double decker buses and NATO gas masks. 60 tries for the dd only 1 and 50 tries for the ngm only 1. Before the gun my drop rates where about the same as the spreadsheets say. Not even close now.

doinkent
05-11-2012, 06:50 AM
edit.. didnt read op properly

Dravak
05-11-2012, 06:51 AM
The drop rates keep getting nerfed and nerfed .... am now at 1 DD a whole day instead of 2-3 ...
Think have to switch over to ma sheng , but It looks so long 20/20 without multiclick ..
It is a freaking too daunting task lol , almost like camping ;)

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 06:56 AM
edit.. didnt read op properly

I am looting at the air port drop rate should be over 10%

Polarbear
05-11-2012, 06:58 AM
1/60 and 1/50 is uncommon but still well within reasonable statistical means if drop rate is about 4%....

Edit: @10% you are still within 3 standard deviations, so just count yourself as having an unlucky streak D=

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 07:16 AM
1/60 and 1/50 is uncommon but still well within reasonable statistical means if drop rate is about 4%....

Edit: @10% you are still within 3 standard deviations, so just count yourself as having an unlucky streak D=


Bad luck, boy I hope so, spent gold to get the gun just so I could loot more.

Swifty
05-11-2012, 07:36 AM
Going 5 for 10 with a 10% drop rate is also very unlikely.

Is it just an accident of sampling that I do not hear about those cases as much as I hear about the 1 for 50?

People are only motivated to post if the results are bad? But keep their cards close to their vest if the results are good?

Dravak
05-11-2012, 07:42 AM
@swifty that is the way it works for most lol

Look at people moaning about events items not gotten for free , but forgetting they have how many for free already ;)
Same applies to farming stuff , think CS is the one most unlucky so far with farming stuff especially the M4A1.

Had 2-3 DD a day from pve .. and 2-4 police armoured trucks from pvp .
After last even it is now 1 DD a day 2 max armoured trucks from pvp .

So the best and worst :p , M4A1 I only reached a mad of 11 a day , never 20 . that is cause my energy is smaller then most people .

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 08:02 AM
Going 5 for 10 with a 10% drop rate is also very unlikely.

Is it just an accident of sampling that I do not hear about those cases as much as I hear about the 1 for 50?

People are only motivated to post if the results are bad? But keep their cards close to their vest if the results are good?


Was more interested if anyone noticed if there drop rate dropped after they won the devil's gun not really to complane about the rate alone. but if you have any good looting spots you would like to share I would love the help

Bruce_law
05-11-2012, 08:14 AM
I noticed that the drop rate went down already before the devils event.

For me is still the same drop rate since then.

Swifty
05-11-2012, 08:38 AM
@Dr BoneCrusher

But would you have started a thread if you had gone 5 for 10? And asked if everyone's drop rates had increased with the devil's gun? And maybe you would have. I am just curious about that aspect of it.

The bad streaky results go way back. I have got some that fell outside the 3 standard deviations that Polarbear is talking about.

I would love to have access to Funzio's large sample statistics. I still have a suspicion that either their number generator is flaky or that they have built non-random factors into the final results.

And wouldn't it be really weird if the devil's gun was one of those factors?

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 08:53 AM
@Dr BoneCrusher

But would you have started a thread if you had gone 5 for 10? And asked if everyone's drop rates had increased with the devil's gun? And maybe you would have. I am just curious about that aspect of it.

The bad streaky results go way back. It have got some that fell outside the 3 standard deviations that Polarbear is talking about.

I would love to have access to Funzio's large sample statistics. I still have a suspicion that either their number generator is flaky or that they have built non-random factors into the final results.

And wouldn't it be really weird if the devil's gun was one of those factors?

You are right I would have started that thread only to validate attempts at a much harded loot. Just like now where I am trying to justify attempting an easer one. If it is "bad luck" then I will keep going on the same path but, if it is something else I will have to change my strategy.

Polarbear
05-11-2012, 09:49 AM
For all the people who believe their game is purposely being unfair to them by not dropping loot....

Honestly... really?

Here's a thought.... for a typical 10% item loot drop rate, what are the chances of getting 2 items in a row?
Simply .10*.10 = 1% chance, and i'm sure we've all achieved this at least once.
Equivalently there is also a 1% chance that you will not recieve loot 43-44 times in a row, so how come it's so difficult to understand a bad streak, but so easy to accept your luck.

2 cents

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 10:00 AM
For all the people who believe their game is purposely being unfair to them by not dropping loot....

Honestly... really?

Here's a thought.... for a typical 10% item loot drop rate, what are the chances of getting 2 items in a row?
Simply .10*.10 = 1% chance, and i'm sure we've all achieved this at least once.
Equivalently there is also a 1% chance that you will not recieve loot 43-44 times in a row, so how come it's so difficult to understand a bad streak, but so easy to accept your luck.

2 cents


I would accept it as bad luck if it is, but with out investigating it how would I know? In this game things change all the time like m4's, old dd drop rates and other discussed on this forum tring to gain some knowledge is not complaining just prudent.

Labradorite
05-11-2012, 11:07 AM
I believe Khung's method for m4 farming might still work. At lease give it a try. If I interpreted it right, you should only try to complete the job 2-3 times at a time. If it dropped, lady luck is with you, don't close the app, try another 2-3 times. If it didn't drop, close the app and come back later. The same method applies to event items if you use gold to reset the timer. I feel really bad for people spent hundreds of dollars without gotten the 10th item. Test your luck with 2-3 tries, if lady luck is not on your side, close the app, don't keep wasting your energy or gold ATM.

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 11:22 AM
I believe Khung's method for m4 farming might still work. At lease give it a try. If I interpreted it right, you should only try to complete the job 2-3 times at a time. If it dropped, lady luck is with you, don't close the app, try another 2-3 times. If it didn't drop, close the app and come back later. The same method applies to event items if you use gold to reset the timer. I feel really bad for people spent hundreds of dollars without gotten the 10th item. Test your luck with 2-3 tries, if lady luck is not on your side, close the app, don't keep wasting your energy or gold ATM.

thanks for the idea i will give it a try

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 12:45 PM
@Dr BoneCrusher

But would you have started a thread if you had gone 5 for 10? And asked if everyone's drop rates had increased with the devil's gun? And maybe you would have. I am just curious about that aspect of it.

The bad streaky results go way back. I have got some that fell outside the 3 standard deviations that Polarbear is talking about.

I would love to have access to Funzio's large sample statistics. I still have a suspicion that either their number generator is flaky or that they have built non-random factors into the final results.

And wouldn't it be really weird if the devil's gun was one of those factors?


Maybe I just was a run of bad luck just got 4 ngm in a row

Dr BoneCrusher
05-11-2012, 12:46 PM
I believe Khung's method for m4 farming might still work. At lease give it a try. If I interpreted it right, you should only try to complete the job 2-3 times at a time. If it dropped, lady luck is with you, don't close the app, try another 2-3 times. If it didn't drop, close the app and come back later. The same method applies to event items if you use gold to reset the timer. I feel really bad for people spent hundreds of dollars without gotten the 10th item. Test your luck with 2-3 tries, if lady luck is not on your side, close the app, don't keep wasting your energy or gold ATM.

Could be some truth to that thread tried it and got 4 ngm in a row