Alice's Event Drop Rate Analysis

[Alice]

link to the google document spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArJYc250DposdFl1ZzYtOTBMSk4wcmVTMDBXcDJMT 3c

How does the drop rate decrease with the number of Diamond/Emerald..etc increases?
Should I reset with gold or open with gold or both?

Hopefully Alice's data will be useful of players who want the end event items so much. Alice is lucky enough to get 4 end event items without gold and 3 complete log of those 4 events won. Alice will also do a comparison with pure gold openings (Thanks to AppleMacGuy for his records). The result is interesting.

According to the table below, the first thing surprised me is: Average drop rate of gold options and cash options are so close, while average drop rate on successful cash opens are about two times of the gold options. All my 3 event logs proved this. Which means...if you use gold to open, your drop rate of event currency is lower than successful cash opens!

It seems unfair but, let's think this way: give the same amount of gold, player A uses gold to open, got items on every try, player B uses gold to reset timer, and use cash to open, got only half number of items than A. Since player B invested both gold and in game cash plus got less items, the event currency drop rate is increased as a compensation.

The problem is: end event items are way too important than anything else and anybody have more than enough in game cash to spend. I believe everyone wants to trade cash/junk items for end event items.

Based on my data, I believe gold players should only reset timers and use in game cash to open. Continues fail does happen, but bad luck will not last forever. (My Event 5, 6.25% rate for the second credit card)

Event 7 Alice && AppleMacGuy

+-------+----+--------+----+--------++----+--------+
| Docu. | Tr | TrRate | Op | OpRate || Gd | GdRate |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------++----+--------+
| 01/10 | 07 | 14.29% | 03 | 33.33% || 01 | 100.0% |
| 02/10 | 02 | 50.00% | 01 | 100.0% || 02 | 50.00% |
| 03/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% || 01 | 100.0% |
| 04/10 | 03 | 33.33% | 01 | 100.0% || 03 | 33.33% |
| 05/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% || 07 | 14.29% |
| 06/10 | 05 | 20.00% | 03 | 33.33% || 03 | 33.33% |
| 07/10 | 08 | 12.50% | 05 | 20.00% || 13 | 7.692% |
| 08/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% || 15 | 6.667% |
| 09/10 | 06 | 16.67% | 03 | 33.33% || 01 | 100.0% |
| 10/10 | 44 | 2.273% | 22 | 4.545% || 48 | 2.083% |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------++----+--------+
Alice:
Total cash tries 78, successful opens 41
Average Secret Document drop rate: 12.82%
Average Secret Document drop rate on successful opens: 24.39%
AppleMacGuy:
Total gold tries 94
Average Secret Document drop rate 10.64%


Event 5 Alice

+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
| Cards | Tr | TrRate | Op | OpRate |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
| 01/10 | 02 | 50.00% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 02/10 | 16 | 6.250% | 02 | 50.00% |
| 03/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 04/10 | 04 | 25.00% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 05/10 | 07 | 14.28% | 02 | 50.00% |
| 06/10 | 02 | 50.00% | 02 | 50.00% |
| 07/10 | 08 | 12.50% | 03 | 33.33% |
| 08/10 | 04 | 25.00% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 09/10 | 62 | 1.613% | 25 | 4.000% |
| 10/10 | 21 | 4.762% | 10 | 10.00% |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
Total cash tries 127, successful opens 48
Average Credit Card drop rate: 7.874%
Average Credit Card drop rate on successful opens: 20.83%

Event 4 Alice

+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
| Pend. | Tr | TrRate | Op | OpRate |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
| 01/10 | 02 | 50.00% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 02/10 | 02 | 50.00% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 03/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 04/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 05/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 06/10 | 01 | 100.0% | 01 | 100.0% |
| 07/10 | 08 | 12.50% | 03 | 33.33% |
| 08/10 | 18 | 5.556% | 11 | 9.091% |
| 09/10 | 03 | 33.33% | 03 | 33.33% |
| 10/10 | 53 | 1.887% | 30 | 18.87% |
+-------+----+--------+----+--------+
Total cash tries 90, successful opens 53
Average Diamond Pendant drop rate: 11.11%
Average Diamond Pendant drop rate on successful opens: 18.87%

[Nicholost]

DOS called, they want their screen buffer back.

[Alice]

Err...Nicholost, I didn't get it

[Dravak]

DOS stands for disk operating system , so for those people like me , it means old school computers which boot up with a disk , but for nicolost it just mean the shell layout or frame work .

The letter type and font you used reminded him of that .

But Alice like said you cannot compare data like that , since AMG had last event just 25 boxes (am doing it from. my head ) this even he has 94 .
Basically the 25 is a anomoly .

So are the data per person , concrete fact is that some people are flagged to recieve it , luck karma whatever you call it .
Others don't , so it pure RNG , some get lucky with the streak , others never .

[Plux]

Is that Amiga Dos lol
Command:\ Open
If Plux: Enhanced Bike

I explained this to Tech Support that using Gold is actually making it worse, I've now got more enhanced bikes then a Kentucky Hells Angel Event. I had 6 in a row at one point, really makes spending gold rather pointless.
Alice, I agree with your figures, you are spot on from looking at your numbers and thinking the pleasure you get from opening a doc with cash is far greater then with gold. The stress lines would make you look like a Sudoko game.

[jinqs]

In order to make any real conclusions about what the drop rates are and how the system works, we need a LOT more data in one place.

[Alice]

Others don't , so it pure RNG , some get lucky with the streak , others never .

Thanks for the explanation, would you mind further explain RNG as well? Although I cannot compare like that, my 3 event log is somewhat consistent...wish AMG or other gold spenders could keep their style and I would definitely keep a track on further comparisons.:p

[Alice]

In order to make any real conclusions about what the drop rates are and how the system works, we need a LOT more data in one place.

I will update with more data, see the new link on top of the thread

[Dravak]

No PC , amiga didn't had dos , it had workbench OS with A Shell command for programming .

But Plux stop whinning spend gold , or trust your luck you will get it .

Sorry if open leads to a variable loot table , that you must have understood already :p
With the 10th document having a % in that loot table based on the rare formula . ( that is my speculation)

So more opens the beter the chance , but some can never get that % to appear , others get it fast enough .

[Vile Lynn]

Alice, you are awesome for posting the data! Thanks! It helps me seeing it like that.

Phux, that made me lol! Enhanced Bike, exactly! Omg I have soooo many, too. I don't even know if they are adding stat points still; doubt it, heh.

I hope they throw another event at us tomorrow, please, why not? I'm ina zone now.

[Alice]

^

Finally someone like my work, feeling happy about it;)

[Plux]

I've made a decision......Phux lol, lucky I'm Lord Shemyaza in-game now, I'd have the easily offended up in arms with those with poor vision. I'm not from Thuxsted by the way :-) (Not being rude, it's a real place in Norfolk, UK)

That decision is.......By the way before I share my decision, Carnival Sledgehammers? We've had loads of those the last 2 events pretty useful but just not enough.
Command:/Open
If Plux: Carnival Sledgehammer (Not enhanced bike - mentioned in another thread)

Decision is: Try not to feel disheartened by not having the game breaker Mini Gun and reveal the mantra if at first you don't succeed, try less harder and think of something that rhymes with succeed. It's late I want this gun and I can't have it, someone has set my ratio to 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000001% on this 10th Item and I reckon the scratchers are coming on Thursday so look out for game maintenance.

Alice, awesome piece of Analysis, I'll bring some ratio work to the table in the near future. I see the evil Blythe Masters effect at work here!
0.00000000000000000000000000001% (oooh my ratio went up, given 74million years extra openings per hour I reckon a monkey could either write the works of shakespear or fly out of my butt.
EU Security Chop Stick this time. That adds to my 25 stockpile of useless Melee

[Alice]

^

Plux, you're making 1.29million per hour now, perhaps you just don't need the discount? Mark said there is definitely a possibility to regain previous event items, we'll see about that, I wanted that 65% energy boost too, perhaps the most useful item for non-gold players.

[Vile Lynn]

I've made a decision......Phux lol,...

Oh shoot! Sorry, I knew I was gonna do that, call you Phux, one of these times.
Sorry, Plux! Well, umm, Lord S :D ...Lord Shemyaza. (and, it's slow going, still going for the low, but slow) :)

[Dravak]

Plux went last event from a stock of 80 crates to 0 , so don't talk about beating the ods :p
Even had to refresh energy and stamina to get more crates ..

So it is all or nothing for you I think .