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View Full Version : New event: open rates changed?



Pace
05-02-2012, 09:32 AM
Anyone else think open rates have been changed? I am not talking about the chance of a part/vaccine/bar, but your chance of opening the case/kit/box etc.

In the four past events I was a part of, I used cash for almost every attempt. Level 55-65. I experienced open rates around 40%.

This event - and after waiting for the law of averages to settle in - I really think its different. My HLP has 2 opens in 12 attempts, and my LLP is 1 in 6. Seems to me they drastically changed your open rate with cash. Basically halved it. Anyone else see this empirically?

Definitely will make people buy more good to get kits open...

JohnnyR
05-02-2012, 09:36 AM
Haven't crunched any numbers, but my first 4 boxes opened with cash, my last 6 have failed. Totally random dude, IMO.

boardgames rule
05-02-2012, 09:37 AM
I agree I have got 2 vaccines and I loot item with 14 cash tries. I really don't know about this event because I got of to a bad start on my base building and wondering if I should just stop and wait till next event.

Warfiend
05-02-2012, 09:59 AM
I've had good open rates this event, so far much better than previous ones. I'm all cash opens. Think it's just random. Sometimes you're hot, sometimes you're not.

Aidan
05-02-2012, 10:05 AM
It's random. You just have to look at Johnny and Luke (poor guy) experience. Both were experiencing a diff open rate last night.

umayos_ka123@yahoo.com
05-02-2012, 10:24 AM
My first 3 openings i got 3 vaccines after that 4 tries always ends up "sorry"

Pace
05-02-2012, 10:32 AM
My first 3 openings i got 3 vaccines after that 4 tries always ends up "sorry"

I'm of interested in what the box has, only the open rate. Chanes of Whether you get a vaccine or not vary with the number you have. The first open is ALWAYS the desired item, and your chances on the second open are really good. I of course got a unit on my 2nd open...

Bronson
05-02-2012, 10:36 AM
I'm of interested in what the box has, only the open rate. Chanes of Whether you get a vaccine or not vary with the number you have. The first open is ALWAYS the desired item, and your chances on the second open are really good. I of course got a unit on my 2nd open...

I got vaccine first followed by loot, 100k, vaccine, loot, vaccine with 13/14 sorrys thrown in the mix

Pace
05-02-2012, 10:36 AM
It's random. You just have to look at Johnny and Luke (poor guy) experience. Both were experiencing a diff open rate last night.

I know it's random - that's why I asked for what other people saw. I guess I am just on an unlucky streak.

I was interested in the large numbers. If 100 players had on average 10 tries and on average only 1 open, I would say things have change. But I guess I am just unlucky right now, considering there are other people who are 4 for 4.

Poopenshire
05-02-2012, 10:37 AM
pace, i am in the same boat as you, just not getting boxes to open.

RonaldPVincent
05-02-2012, 10:45 AM
Anyone else think open rates have been changed? I am not talking about the chance of a part/vaccine/bar, but your chance of opening the case/kit/box etc.

In the four past events I was a part of, I used cash for almost every attempt. Level 55-65. I experienced open rates around 40%.

This event - and after waiting for the law of averages to settle in - I really think its different. My HLP has 2 opens in 12 attempts, and my LLP is 1 in 6. Seems to me they drastically changed your open rate with cash. Basically halved it. Anyone else see this empirically?

Definitely will make people buy more good to get kits open...

Heres where Im at:
Cost / success analysis:
58K - x
58K - x
58K - x
58K - antidote
59K - x
59K - 300 vp
59K - x
59K - fortified sniper
59K - fortified sniper
59K - x
Having no problem as usual finding boxes, but not finding the objectives in them as frequently as past events.

Still early. I expect to have 9 by the end.

manbeast
05-02-2012, 11:16 AM
so far i've only got 2 sorry's. idk, its like magic. getting a lot of loot, valor, money. only 5 vaccines. really hard to keep my med kits in stock

sumbub
05-02-2012, 11:33 AM
I was only able to open 3 boxes out of 6 tries yesterday. Then, not even 1 today. I'm 0 for 7 right now. =7

Arizona
05-02-2012, 11:55 AM
So far;

$500,000
1 x Vaccine
Sorry sorry sorry sorry...lost count!

It seems the open rates have dropped for me too, but I see so many people on here are having better luck, so its probably just a bad run. Early days anyway.

Luke7676
05-02-2012, 12:06 PM
I only had 1 open yesterday with the medium option. Today so far 2 opens. 2 being vaccines. Probably have had around 15 or so sorry's and 3 opens total.

mrgung
05-02-2012, 12:33 PM
4 x Vaccine
2 x 500 Valor
1 x Armored Charger
1 x other unit
rest were "Sorry"'s

manbeast
05-02-2012, 12:34 PM
i keep getting drone tanks. how come all these events give out a bunch of ground loot? i'd like to see one give out more sea loot! got 7 drone tanks already

Blackstone
05-02-2012, 01:52 PM
I don't care it I get sorrys as long as I get vaccines when they do open.

Brandty
05-02-2012, 01:54 PM
I am very appreciated

boardgames rule
05-02-2012, 01:54 PM
Had a dry spell of 15 sorries and then got 2 vaccines in a row! Whats up with that.

Maverick50727
05-02-2012, 02:40 PM
pace, i am in the same boat as you, just not getting boxes to open.I'm not getting them to drop in PVE or PVP like the past. Normally by now I would have 30-50, I have 0. In news feeds I'm not haeing any more stolen than in the past. It took a few hours hours just to get a few yesterday, then the server issues the other night and I couldn't even try to open for a few hours. Then when I got back on the server, the ones I had were stolen and had to start again. I got them PVE in the first 24 hours, then PVP after that easily (1-2 ina series of 20 attacks). I'm going to give it a while longer and if I don't have a 100 extra when the event ends and don't see more steals, I'll know for sure. I always had 150+ extra at the end. Really slow getting them for me now.

Anyone having problems not getting them? I mean people high stats hitting missions using 240+ engery 10 times in a row to get nothing? Just when I was about to send a note to the devs, one pops up. But still. I might go back to hit the adv destroyer for 370 a hit to see if I have better luck spending more energy there.

Now the funny thing will be this time I bet I'll end up getting all 10. Only have 3 instead of 8 pieces this time on the second day and less than half the open this time as I can't seen to get the kits to fall for me to even have.

Pace
05-02-2012, 04:49 PM
pace, i am in the same boat as you, just not getting boxes to open.

I have plenty of kits; it's my opening that sucks. Have 17 kits right now. I did have a bit of luck since my post...4 opens, including two vaccines, so at 3 of 10 now. Guess it was just a run of bad luck

Pace
05-02-2012, 04:52 PM
What if some people have a high open chance and others a high chance of getting kits? We solved The PvP problem!

LeBarticus
05-02-2012, 04:56 PM
Yeah I've had better opening rates in the past... A lot of sorrys

Bronco928
05-02-2012, 05:03 PM
Last event was the absolute worst for me; I'm doing fairly well in this one, I have 8 vaccines as of this morning. The boxes aren't dropping as frequently as I would like. However, I thought the last event started slow too, then picked up on boxes dropping, not ever on opening for me. I hope tomorrow the boxes will flow a little more readily!!!

Poopenshire
05-02-2012, 05:14 PM
Still cannot open crates. Still stuck at 2. Took me 8 opens just to get my first vaccine!

big perm
05-02-2012, 05:21 PM
i am like you Mav they are harder to find then the other events .By far for me.

Tate
05-03-2012, 12:44 AM
Same difficulty here guys! 1800 exp, 50 stamina and I got 4 med kits! Unfreakin believable!! Just in the past hour and a half.

Pve isn't giving me anything, even some of the higher goals... nada! And, man is it hard to find PVP that are taking part and have any kits.

I started a list and so far 60% sorry, 4 vaccines, 1 much rover, sea cannon 100 valor and naturally, a grunt!

StuN
05-03-2012, 12:50 AM
Got a med kit the 1st day, 4 failed opens with cash. It's now sitting on my screen untouched since then. Can't even be bothered to try the free option lol

Major disappointment
05-03-2012, 04:13 PM
Most of the people aren't doing this event. They've been burned by the last two. Why play when you can't get the big enchilada? When you get close they tilt the odds against you so you can't win. That makes it hard to get them in the PvP area because most people don't have them. Funzio is shooting itself in the foot by making it so hard to win a freaking virtual prize. Me, I'm camping and sitting this one out. Chase those elusive butterflies all you want.

JohnnyR
05-03-2012, 06:05 PM
I'm getting em just fine. I've not changed my strategy in any drastic way, just raiding and PVP attack and PVE missions like normal. I've a 19 bar of stamina and 1400 bar of energy, will get between 3 and 5 boxes a run. On the Financial District at the moment.

siL
05-03-2012, 06:28 PM
You guys shouldn't compare the open rates, with just a few opens you know...this is the law of chance, and you have to build a big statistic pool to be able to compile an accurate data for this kind of things...
If someone could open and got 3 vaccine in 5 attempts, it should not discourage you all...because its him having a very lucky day! you should ask that same person, about the next 20-30 tries to open the boxes, to see the general idea...

As for me, myself, in this event, I have had 48 chances to open the box (54 chances if you count the glitches), with the following results :
8x vaccines
7x loot units
2x 100 valors
1x $300K
2x $60K
1x Extra Allies
so the total of success in opening the boxes is 21 times, with the rest 33 times all sorries (if you count all the glitches). so the success rates this far is only nearly 40% for me, and yes this is lower than of the previous event (which I didn't record, unfortunately)

IMO, you all just have to do more tries to open, as much as possible, because this in it self will improve your chances of getting the final 10 item. You can't just whine, if you haven't put enough effort into it.

FYI, I set up my alarm in 1 hours interval during the day, AND the night (when I sleep, so I dozed off each hour just to open boxes lol!!) - lucky me for this past 2 events, my wife is going back to her hometown, so I could done this, otherwise, she will kill me...lol!
By doing this, I could have at least 21 tries to open boxes each day, and therefore the chances to obtain the final item is much bigger...

At the last event, even though I have done this method, I only receive the 10th Nuke in the last 3 hours of the event...Last but not least, I suggest you to work hard, and lots of praying if you wish to get the ultimate prize...(although I do not recommend warfiend's dark forces tho...lol!!)
Good Luck to you all!!we need loads of them....:)

Hellstorm
05-04-2012, 02:41 AM
The drop rate sucks... I've never seen it like this. Spent over 4000 energy today, doing pve and got two boxes... That's it, both opened right away. But have been sitting all day without boxes!

Poopenshire
05-04-2012, 05:54 AM
I have 30 crates, i had to stop working on getting them. I just cannot open them

Agent Orange
05-04-2012, 06:05 AM
You may want to compare open rates vs player level.....