random warheads

[Ascent]

As I am reading the posts on the various events we had these past few weeks, I keep seeing the same complaints and same explanations given. So I will give you my two cents as I think it will help with soothing the frustration if we understand the reasons behind it.

When some of you guys say "I think something stinks" and others simply reply "it is random", you are bth RIGHT and WRONG at the same time :)

Yes, it is set to random, but... and here comes the BIG BUT:

Our mind is basically a future predicting machine. It observes the present, compares it with past experiences and automatically creates a theory, or a probability calculation as to what is the most likely future that will happen.

Now, when we use the word random, we are not only saying that you cannot know the rules governing the events, we also (by default) imply even distribution of the odds (because this is the most common experience in both nature and in our culture).

So, the first day we get one or two boxes, and our mind automatically does the math: "I have 5 more days to go, so with this trend I can make it to ten". The next day we are up to 5-6 boxes and the mind is saying: "with this trend we will get to ten by tomorrow and we still have 4 days to go... hooray!"

Now comes the tricky part...

Something I was thinking about as part of my job (I work for the state lottery as a game designer)

The problem with lottery is that the chances are small, even for the small prizes. So people buy a few tickets and not win for weeks or months and give up, because their mind will say, the chances are bad. And we lose these people forever. On the other hand, those who will win one or two tickets instantly at the beginning, will play for 20 years afterwards and still believe in the good odds, because it was their first experience.

If we, as a state lottery could ensure that every person's first few tickets are a winner, we could catch them for life as a customer.

The reason we do not do this is twofold:

1.) It is messing with the odds and thus unfair towards the other players.

2.) It is the same trick the drug dealers use: "the firts one is free" alas creating addiction. And naturally the more addicted you are the more the price goes up later.


Both are unethical.


Now, Funzio is using exactly this strategy.

Every event the very first box I opened contained the goal item (alas "the first one is free" so you get hooked on "Hey, I am lucky!"

Then, the odds are getting worse and worse, which is totally unintuitive for our minds which are accustomed to even distribution randomness in both nature, over millions if not billions of years of evolution and in society via the chance and gambling games.

Our mind sees this scenario as random:

"I opened ten boxes, and found 2 items. So if I open another 10 boxes I may expect to find about 2 other items... so to find 10 items in total I will have to open about 50 boxes in total."

But this is not how Funzio programmed the events. After each successfull find, the next find is much harder to find :D I am not sure how these odds change, but they change and this throws off your mind's natural ability to calculate the odds correctly... thus it leads to frustration.

Imagine if a casino was changing the odds against you after every win, making it less likely that you win at the next draw?! You would walk right out the door... wouldn't you?

Now, Funzio is not peddling drugs, nor is it taking your money for gambling.

It is more like the hooker in vegas stripping in front of you enciting to hand over more and more money to get her to the next base.

Illegal? No.

Unethical? I would not think so.

Dastardly? Very cunningly so :D

[Thunder Child]

Great read!

[War Priest]

Great read!

Yes, it was! Of course this will not have any effect on bigflan though. :p

[bigflan]

It's a great read anyway I was complaing about the box opening rates not warheads guys do you read

[Scabbyfeet]

Hmm umm that's pretty good stuff !

[Agent Orange]

Thanks Ascent you really put it into perspective. Outstanding!

[Thunder Child]

Personally, I suspect the whole thing is phased, and that within each phase things are quite random. Phase 1 - very high probability, completely random (Day 1); Phase 2 - high probability, completely random (Day 2); Phase 3 - low probability, completely random (Days 3 - 5); Phase 4 - very low probability, completely random (Final day).There is nothing which says Funzio has to have the same level of probability across the whole event, is there? And so long as each of us has the same chances within each phase, can't see an ethical problem either. As you said, Ascent, cunning, and I would add smart business. Not saying I like it, of course, but then it's my choice to play or not...

[LeBarticus]

Thank you for articulating this, I've been waiting for this to be addressed. I feel like the chances decline at an exponential rate of some sort after every warhead you acquire. This forces you to attempt more opens, which requires boxes, which require lots of gameplay, whether its PVE or PVP. The fact that the chances decline of you opening the box AND the chance of it being a warhead makes it very difficult to get far in these events. The last one I think I was stuck at 8 for the last 3 days.
Do the boxes have items set inside of them, or is it a random selection when you get one open? I feel like after you get a certain number of 'warheads' or whatever it may be, certain units or other items get 'turned on', and thrown into the chances

[Copenhagen]

You nailed it! So it's a profit scam, eh? These promos definitely stoke up the game.

[Gixxxah_Ridah]

I'm sorry ascent, I was into the post until I read that you design games for the lottery. At this point all I could think about is, how do I make this guy my blnew best friend!! Hahahaha

Nicely done, I think you nailed it and I wish I could change the way my mind perceives odds but unfortunately, I can't and so I'll continue to be disappointed and frustrated in the events.

[Viol8ter]

I got my turret operater at eight nukes.....

[Corsair]

Very well said. Of course some just like to complain so it will fall on deaf ears (as already proven). I don't get frustrated because they said all along the drop odds would decrease as you go along. I figured pretty quick that should mean be happy to get to 7 and get the free units I wouldn't have gotten without the event. Actually got to 9 in the last one. Almost was going to get pulled in and use gold to open my last boxes but I fell asleep, so don't know if I'd have given in to the dark side :)

[Warfiend]

I got my turret operater at eight nukes.....

Same here. Wasn't expecting that. A nice surprise and nice to see they used my idea for a turret operator.

[bushobama]

"Almost was going to get pulled in and use gold to open my last boxes but I fell asleep, so don't know if I'd have given in to the dark side"

I think this is a key sentiment many of us have during the events. The last two boxes seem particularly difficult, and the real challenge seems to be whether one can avoid giving in and buying gold to chase them down. I think there is nothing wrong with doing so, but personally I have regretted buying gold to open boxes. After not getting the 10th item on two occasions, I've felt like I've been had. No more gold for me, for now.

[Hellstorm]

Haha... Wait, just wait... Bigflan will get you for that ;)

[Agent Orange]

"Almost was going to get pulled in and use gold to open my last boxes but I fell asleep, so don't know if I'd have given in to the dark side"

I think this is a key sentiment many of us have during the events. The last two boxes seem particularly difficult, and the real challenge seems to be whether one can avoid giving in and buying gold to chase them down. I think there is nothing wrong with doing so, but personally I have regretted buying gold to open boxes. After not getting the 10th item on two occasions, I've felt like I've been had. No more gold for me, for now.

I was thinking about this problem of the 9th and 10th boxes being so difficult to get once there are only a couple of days left in the event and I have to wonder what is the event all about. If it's about making money for Funzio then as time goes on and we keep having these events and each time players discover that after a certain point in time it's next to impossible to achieve then what's the point of doing it? Won't people just give up early and that's the end of it?

[What?]

I enjoyed the read as well. Maybe it is my primal intuition honed over millennia, but is this event worse in chances then the last one? I really think funzio saw the posts of people who got 10 crates last event with no gold and said "we can't have that!" and made the open crates rate less. I would be surprised if only a very small number get it this time. I keep getting xp and units that I won't even bring into battle unless I lose about 500 units. I think I'll be lucky to get 7 this time around.

[bilbo baggins]

I think its more of the case that there are about 30 active members on here and around 1.5million players.

It does not surprise me that nearly all on here do not reach the 10. I am more shocked at the amount that do. Trying to formulate an opinion on the probability of the event when using a sample of less than 0.00002% of the players is just daft.