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View Full Version : Crates or Fortune Tellers?



nappyface
02-26-2012, 05:39 PM
So I have some extra gold to spend and I'm having a hard time deciding between crates and fortune tellers. I performed some rough calculations based on my end game projection and deduced that buying crates is a better value stats wise (both in the short and long run). However, the thing I'm having trouble with is placing a value on the fact that fortune tellers are non-consumable. Ultimately they would replace the need for a combination of the $150,000 (0/25) and $325,000 (30/0) explosives. I have never used explosives so I am unaware of their consumption rates but saving $475,000 on a regular basis seems like a pretty sweet deal. Any thoughts regarding this dilemma?

TenderPlacebo
02-26-2012, 06:05 PM
That's some sound logic, never really thought about it that way. The good thing about crates is you do have a chance to get something rare/powerful. I guess it depends on how you where planning on spending. Explosives can go quick ESP defensive ones, you can't help who attacks you. It seem you lose more if you lose, less if you win.

nappyface
02-26-2012, 06:20 PM
After some additional thought, I've decided on my plan of attack. Feel free to discuss anyway.

ruffy
02-26-2012, 09:14 PM
I just bought a few 8 balls explosive. I previously bought crates, and I felt crates were more value for money.

Nicholost
02-26-2012, 10:04 PM
It is sooo tempting to go into detail about my analysis of both, but I'm in bed typing this on my Fire and my spreadsheet in in the office. So, I will only ask what you decided on and why, nappyface.

nappyface
02-26-2012, 10:22 PM
I decided to go with the crates. Without going into great detail, I figured the larger increase in stats afforded by purchasing the crates was more important than saving cash with the explosives.

Joeycool
02-27-2012, 03:58 AM
I decided to go with the crates. Without going into great detail, I figured the larger increase in stats afforded by purchasing the crates was more important than saving cash with the explosives.

Good choice in my opinion.

They will give you weapons that are easily stronger than any weapons you can buy in the game.

With the fortune teller... sure you can save a bit of money because they are non consumable. But there are items in the store that have stats practically as good as them.

When you get to high level the £475K isnt that much really.

If you are going to spend gold you may as well spend it on something that cant be beat with respect or cash items. Otherwise eventually it will become redundant, and a waste of gold.

Joeycool
02-27-2012, 03:59 AM
It is sooo tempting to go into detail about my analysis of both, but I'm in bed typing this on my Fire and my spreadsheet in in the office. So, I will only ask what you decided on and why, nappyface.

What's your take on it then mate?

Nicholost
02-27-2012, 10:07 AM
What's your take on it then mate?

Well, both crates and non-consumable gold explosives are a great value; probably the two best gold item choices available in the game. Obviously the potential for better stat gains are higher with crates, but non-consumable gold explosives need to be given a fair consideration, especially the late Fortune Teller. This becomes clear when you break down all gold items into a total item points per gold measurement. Less than a third of the gold items have a 1.1 or higher total points per gold measurement. So if you don't have an inventory of all gold items, this measurement matters because it implies bang for buck. (If you do have a gold inventory or an impressively stocked inventory, you'd want to focus on gains per item instead. That's beside the point.) This measurement is where crates have the potential to really blow away any other gold items, but the key word here is "potential." They also have the 65% chance to provide mediocre total points per gold weapons. The three Uncommon crate items have the following total points per gold rates, if the crates were purchased individually: Eviscerating Blade - 0.94, Riot Armor - 0.96, Vengeance Pistol - 0.98. Compare that to the Fortune Teller at 1.16 total points per gold. Technically, Fortune Tellers are a better purchase 65% of the time under this logic. FTs become even more important when you consider what each gold item is replacing.

All of the crate items, with maybe the exception of vehicles since most are short on them, replace an existing item in your inventory of lesser stats. The gain is the difference between the crate item's stats and those of the item it replaced. Explosives on the other hand will always offer 100% of their stats as long as you don't already have enough explosives to equip your entire mafia. But since explosives are consumable, it takes a tremendous economy and dedication to maintain this. My point here is that if money saved is money earned, non-consumable explosives essentially increase your economy by the amount that is necessary to sustain their cash explosive equivalent. The cash explosive equivalent brings up another good point though.

As of v2.2, there is no loot-equivalent to explosives. With every other weapon class, there is some way to accumulate loot that has similar (roughly speaking) stats to low level gold items, particularly the Uncommon crate items. That means it is completely impossible to match gold explosives effectiveness with cash explosives. You can match or exceed just the attack or just the defense stats with only the most expensive explosives, but not both. And a persistent player or a few persistent players can burn up an explosive supply without much effort. Again, if money spent is equal to money lost, those players have essentially stolen a significant sum of money in the form of explosives; maybe more than they would have if you weren't successful in holding off their attacks.

At this point, gold non-consumable explosives seem like a done deal, but crates do have the potential (there it is again) to destroy gold explosives in terms of total points gained per gold. There is a 35% chance, not a guarantee, that crates will drop items with 2.x or 3.x points per gold. No other gold item can come close to that. This is also where people claim they are overpowered. I contend that they are not because a 10% or a 25% likelihoods of an exceptional loot drop after spending 50 gold is quite the risk. It also means that one has to purchase a lot of crates before they outfit their inventory with the crème de la crème.

In conclusion, if you like risk and can tolerate receiving mediocre loot at the 35% chance of something much better, buy crates. If you are looking for a for-sure way to fill a void in your stats/inventory and gain 100% of the item's stats, go Fortune Tellers.

Swifty
02-27-2012, 10:15 AM
Thanks to Nicholost, well worth reading.

Joeycool
02-27-2012, 10:27 AM
You see what you are saying there was not true in my case. This is because when considering which one to go with I had over 700 defensive explosive, and 600 attacking explosives.

A purchase of 3 (150G) fortune tellers gave me less of an overall stat boost than 1 (145G) crate even with the lowest value items in it.

In addition for 50g I get an item that i can pretty much replace with store items costing only $470k. Thats about 2 hours income to me.

With the crates even the low value weapons would be used in my over all defence and attack.

Eventually I hope to be able to afford a full house of top value explosives... and at that point the fortune teller becomes defunct.

So in my situation... Its crates every time.

In saying that... I did splash out on 3 fortune tellers before I made my decision to go with crates. So it is a pretty close one.

Good old gold sales! :)

Nicholost
02-27-2012, 10:51 AM
You see what you are saying there was not true in my case. This is because when considering which one to go with I had over 700 defensive explosive, and 600 attacking explosives.

A purchase of 3 (150G) fortune tellers gave me less of an overall stat boost than 1 (145G) crate even with the lowest value items in it.

In addition for 50g I get an item that i can pretty much replace with store items costing only $470k. Thats about 2 hours income to me.

With the crates even the low value weapons would be used in my over all defence and attack.

Eventually I hope to be able to afford a full house of top value explosives... and at that point the fortune teller becomes defunct.

So in my situation... Its crates every time.

In saying that... I did splash out on 3 fortune tellers before I made my decision to go with crates. So it is a pretty close one.

Good old gold sales! :)
I see what you are saying, Joey. In your case, sustaining high-end explosives is possible because your economy is so high and therefore the gains that the FT gives are minimal. In your case it makes complete sense to buy crates, as it would for anyone who can sustain high-end cash explosives. If your inventory were full of items that are equal to or better than the Common crate loot, I'd tell you to stay away from crates and buy gold items individually instead. It really comes down to identifying where the gaps are in your inventory and making an effort to fill those.

My analysis is based on the position I am in, and where I'm sure others are as well. I cannot afford to sustain explosives yet and do not have an impressive inventory of other weapons. Because of this, gold explosives are a fantastic purchase for me and the conservative choice when analyzing crates and explosives.

EDIT: I find it particularly funny that we are discussing which of two items to purchase when one of them isn't even available anymore. The choice is really easy at this point. :p

Joeycool
02-27-2012, 11:33 AM
There are sure to be similar items in the store soon. There have been gold explosives in the last two weeks.