After Diamond 5 - Chest loot method solved

[erik]

Indisputable statistical evidence for successful looting after Diamond 5 (using the medium option).

As we know, it becomes more difficult to loot after Diamond 5.

There are 3 ways to loot a chest .

1. Daytime working loots. These loots are completely random, and will match the expected ratio of 50% success . (3/6 yesterday)

2. Early morning and Evening anticipation loots. These loots are over managed and put under a high level of pressure. The counter is often watched for the last 2 minutes or more. These loots can expect a 0% success rate. (0-7 last night, 0-1 this morning)

3. Groggy alarmed sleep loots. These loots lack any pressure at all, and are more a Pavlovian response than anything. Expected success rate is 100%. (4-4 overnight, 1 Diamond)

I will be experimenting today with varying amounts of Turkey consumption and riding the Tryptophan wave to success.

Any deviation from this success model means that Anubis stole your loot.

[Vile Lynn]

As we know, it becomes more difficult to loot after Diamond 5.

Do we?
Is that in the game or are we really just assuming Funzio made it that way?

[erik]

Anecdotal evidence seems to strongly back up a declining probability of a Diamond as your # possessed increases. Max just got his sig after opening 20 chests after his 9th Diamond.

[CounterSniper]

Do we?
Is that in the game or are we really just assuming Funzio made it that way?


I got my first 5 within the first 7 hours and only 1 in the last 18 or so hours with similar stats as described by erik.

[erik]

Confirmed.

1st post turkey daytime sleepy loot. (1/1) Diamond. #7

[Amber_]

Is this in EST?

[Bruiser]

Is this in EST?

Or DSEST??? :)

[erik]

This is EST. My day has been terrible since the turkey wore off despite attempting 22 of 24 possible attempts for the day overall. Looking forward to night 2 of alarms which can only mean that I will loot 2 diamonds or accidently buy 1500 gold.



__________________

1st 24hrs - 10/17 - 5 Diamonds

2nd 24hrs - 9/22 - 2 Diamonds

3rd 24hrs - 2/3 - 0 Diamonds

21/42 - 50%

[jaywalker]

As most, it seems, I am at 5 as well. I don't see the need for crying just yet though, asyou still have 5 days and 30 minutes left to crack the last 5. I did 5 in one day (~20 crates)

[Ghost818]

with me it was the first 4 very easily, i got my 5th one today after 12 failed trys, then about 6 more fails and i got 125k then 25k in a row, ill post on my next one in 45 mins