View Full Version : Legendary Loot Drop Question

Keiff

08-18-2015, 10:19 AM

So I found the post that breaks down the chance of legendary loot for a level 100 boss:

Devils Pizza is 10% chance

City Drifter is 1.3% chance

Prison Ball is 0.7% chance

Does this same concept or percentage break down exist for all legendary loot tables per level of boss?

If you look at it a slightly different way you can get this:

Pizza 10% + Drifter 1.4% + Ball 0.7% = 12% chance drop on level 100 boss or

Pizza 83.33% chance of the 12% chance total

Drifter 10.83% chance of the 12% chance total

Ball 5.83% chance of the 12% chance total

If we uses that same break down and apply it to a level 90 boss where the legendary drop chance is 9% total. Is the loot break down this:

Pizza 83.33% of 9% chance = 7.50%

Drifter 10.83% of 9% chance = .98%

Ball 5.83% of 9% chance = .52%

Thus Pizza 7.5% + Drifter .98% + Ball .52% = 9% total.

If this is true and you can 1 hit a level 90 for loot, then you are better served doing that over 2 hitting a level 95 or 100 for loot.

2 loots at .52% = 1.04% which is greater then 1 loot at .7% chance.....Isn't math fun?

Oasis

08-18-2015, 10:32 AM

Nice math!

Too complicated for me..

All I know, from what I’m reading on informative forums, and 3rd party chat apps; is people seem to have better luck getting legendary items on lower levels. I have about 20 pizzas, 3 cars, and 2 balls (lol)… I got one ball from a lvl 100, and one from a lvl 80.

People are getting good legendary drops anywhere from lvl 70-80

Nighteg

08-18-2015, 10:44 AM

That's correct. If you need 2 hits for 95 or 100, then you stand a better chance single hitting the lower bosses.

Keiff

08-18-2015, 11:43 AM

I sent an e-mail to Gree's customer support to see if anyone will confirm my math. I am not holding my breath waiting for an answer though.

Nighteg

08-18-2015, 11:46 AM

These guys can't comprehend basic English, let alone math.

I believe the math is incorrect. I'm at work right now so I can't show why. I'll brb with the explanation.

Edit: actually, how did you get 1.04% from the 0.52%?

sister morphine

08-18-2015, 02:38 PM

I sent an e-mail to Gree's customer support to see if anyone will confirm my math. I am not holding my breath waiting for an answer though.

I can't see how your last idea could be true. If taking two hits doubles the chances of winning a given item, then it would do the same for all items, meaning you'd be looking at totals of 200% across the board. Not possible.

So I found the post that breaks down the chance of legendary loot for a level 100 boss:

Devils Pizza is 10% chance

City Drifter is 1.3% chance

Prison Ball is 0.7% chance

Does this same concept or percentage break down exist for all legendary loot tables per level of boss?

If you look at it a slightly different way you can get this:

Pizza 10% + Drifter 1.4% + Ball 0.7% = 12% chance drop on level 100 boss or

Pizza 83.33% chance of the 12% chance total

Drifter 10.83% chance of the 12% chance total

Ball 5.83% chance of the 12% chance total

If we uses that same break down and apply it to a level 90 boss where the legendary drop chance is 9% total. Is the loot break down this:

Pizza 83.33% of 9% chance = 7.50%

Drifter 10.83% of 9% chance = .98%

Ball 5.83% of 9% chance = .52%

Thus Pizza 7.5% + Drifter .98% + Ball .52% = 9% total.

If this is true and you can 1 hit a level 90 for loot, then you are better served doing that over 2 hitting a level 95 or 100 for loot.

2 loots at .52% = 1.04% which is greater then 1 loot at .7% chance.....Isn't math fun?

Chances of getting a ball with one lvl90 is 0.525%

Therefore chances of NOT getting ball with one lvl90 is 99.475%

Therefore chances of NOT getting ball with 2 opens of lvl90 is (0.99475)^2 = 0.98952756 = 98.95%

Therefore chances of getting the ball AT LEAST ONCE in 2 opens is 1.047%

Chances of getting BOTH opens as the ball is (0.525%)^2 = 0.002756%

Ie, it's not additive, you have to multiply.

An analogy would be if the chances for getting a ball is 50%, well opening twice doesn't give you 100% chance of getting 2 balls, or even 100% chance of getting at least 1 ball out of the 2 opens.

You would have a 75% chance of getting at least 1 ball, and a 25% chance of getting 2 balls, and a 25% chance of getting no balls.

If it only takes 1 hit for a lvl100, then the chances of getting a ball AT LEAST ONCE with 2 lvl100s is = 1- (1 - 0.007)^2 = 1 - 0.993^2 = 1- 0.986049 = 1.3951%

I'm pretty sure this is correct. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong somewhere. (Not 1Shot though, lol)

All this math gave me blue balls!

Keiff

08-18-2015, 05:50 PM

Thank you TMI for the correction, it has been a very long time since I have taken a statistics class. You have helped confirm my theory on loot from bosses. Ultimately the best chance at loot is from most boss kills while using as few hits as possible. Assuming you can loot 2 level 90 bosses with 2 hits in the same time you can loot 1 level 100 boss with the same 2 hits, you will be better served to farm 90s.

Level 100 - 2 hits yields 0.7% chance at 1 ball

2 level 90 - 2 hits yields 1.047% chance at 1 ball: 1-(1-0.00525)^2 = 1 -(.99475)^2 = 1-.9895 = 1.047%

so in conclusion, farm highest possible boss with lowest hits possible.

Dipstik

08-18-2015, 07:52 PM

https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=JN.SI2vrJ2hgN9RQoaNVr%2b71Q&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300

Dat Guy

08-19-2015, 01:58 AM

https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=JN.SI2vrJ2hgN9RQoaNVr%2b71Q&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300

The only post in this thread that I understood.

Brendan

08-19-2015, 03:30 AM

The only post in this thread that I understood.

Yep, I'm with you and the pony on this one.

Winnson

08-19-2015, 06:46 AM

So the answer is 4?

Keiff

08-19-2015, 08:40 AM

So the answer is 4?

Back to School drop....well played.

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