Is MW really doing that bad or not??

[Napgar]

According to this gaming tracking website, MW revenue is not down that much.... but scoring and activity/participation was well down in last WD war. Am I missing something??

https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/33/modern-war/

[good gawd noooo]

the key word on that page is ESTIMATES... the game is dieing more factions merges happening every cycle due to players leaveing in droves and fewer new players.. the mid range that spent gold is moving up to take place of bigger dawgs tired of the grind and glitches and fewer newbs sticking around to take their spots as well.. the pool of players is shrinking as the gaps in advantages are still grossly unbalanced.....you haven't missed anything the game is in trouble

[groovy shags]

According to this gaming tracking website, MW revenue is not down that much.... but scoring and activity/participation was well down in last WD war. Am I missing something??

https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/33/modern-war/


ABOUT OUR REVENUE, RETENTION, AND USAGE ESTIMATES

Think Gaming estimates use data from public companies and anonymized submissions to build a proprietary model of app installs and revenue for each rank on the Top Grossing Charts, Top Free and Top Paid Charts. Please report any data problems.

Estimates all based on old data. Of course their installs are solid, because so many players have to delete and re-install to try to fix their account! Even the mods and managers are always recommending a "fresh install". This keeps GREE's numbers looking good!

[bam bam.]

My signature says it all.

There is an old saying "lies, damn lies and statistics". You can always fudge the numbers.

What will happen is one day in the not too distant future we will get "cannot connect to server". The mods will have no heads up, they will be as in the dark as we are....maybe 24-72hrs after we know they will haha.

Why compete, the factions spend to lose the auction as SUP has won everything in living memory. Ultimately why compete?. Just spending as much as you can to still spend less than SUP. How long can you have fun doing that?. Can't strategise in any aspect of any part of the game that is worth a damn to help your cause.

Not to mention this cycle starting out with a fouled up ltq and having everyone compete for a title that they received only 12months ago.

It is not a sustainable business model. It is actual passed its expiry now.

[Brown Out]

Is MW really doing that bad or not??

.............. Not.

[DEWIN NUTTIN]

This all you need to know to determine for yourself (assuming you know how to read market data), the trading or ticker symbol for Gree = GREZF
No, its not on the real markets in the US its traded OTC.
It can also be charted on the Tokyo Exchange and can be found on the Frankfurt Exchange as: V3U.

This will help you jump start your search:

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=GREZF

[Agent Orange]

If gree does not report revenues on this game who knows. If that page is estamating based on download figures supplied by apple and google it could be horribly skewed because of the number of times needed to reinstall the app in order to log into accounts. Last WD I must have done 30 or more reinstalls.

Gree is a aquisition company so that makes it a bit more complicated to get a handle on real numbers.

Based on what I see in game across a number of different levels I would say participation has never been lower.

[NexusImperium]

The 49K daily active users seems to be about right based on what I observed last WD/Japan.

However, I'd peg dedicated, active players at 15-20K and paying players (more than $100/mo) at ~1000.

The $26K daily revenue might be accurate but only for about 1 week out of the WD Cycle (WD/FL). The rest of the cycle their revenues are probably very low, maybe $2K/day at the very most.

Participation this past cycle was astoundingly bad. Our ~700 rank faction jumped up to 230. The number of full, active participating factions I'd estimate at less than 200, accounting for about 12K players. I estimate that this is a loss of around 20-25K players in the past cycle alone. That's a huge exodus.

As noted above I believe the daily install number is not accurate at all. I would estimate the number of new players coming into the game and becoming active, daily players to be a negligible amount.

Based on evidence I think around November or December of 2014 Gree made the decision to end continuing development on this game and place the game into maintenance mode. The game at this point probably has only 1-2 dedicated employees providing configuration and maintenance.

If I were to make a guess at the current rate of decline it would take about 2-4 months from this point before enough players have left the game to make it unprofitable for the company. I would expect Gree to make an announcement about 2-3 weeks after that point (around September time frame at the latest).

[Speed ump]

It's definitly winding down, no doubt. This past wd may or may not be as great an indicator as might be believed. The prizes did suck, and ultimately people play for the prizes. If they bring out some good prizes for the next one, we will probably see better participation. Or not

[J-manKometh96]

It's not about the prizes anymore. The people are just gone. I sat out this WD, with the exception of one single hit. I scored a whole 519 points, which ranked me at 58,294. Many were ranked very similarly to me, as my point total wasn't very far from top 40,000. What that tells me is that nearly 20,000 accounts sat idle and only pulled some defensive wins. I think it shows a pretty bad state when 1/3 of the accounts in active factions are no shows.

Btw, i apologize for my use of commas and not being on board with our fine GREE standards.

[Vercingetorix]

i placed 67000 or so with 40 WD points. My faction placed 7667 with 40 WD points.

I have to believe there are many dormant accounts that scored more points by simply being in a faction than the one hit on a wall that I did for the faction.

[thescondo]

This was the lowest participation I have ever seen in WD - I am in a top 10 facton and I would say that almost all factions encountered were going on regen - looks like only teams in top 25 really using gold anymore

[Sundown]

I'm not sure teams planned to regen when going against you but may have had to call an audible. I'm on a faction that finished in the 30s and when we faced some top 10 teams we just didn't have any targets. I'm guessing that the top ten unless matched against each other faced light competition. In the past we could periodically give someone a challenge but this WD some defenses were out of reach.

[NexusImperium]

That's another point - when the latest inflation occurred it made the stat gap spin way out of control. The game became way uncompetitive. People last WD learned that you can't spend gold when you have no targets to hit.

[Pidgeot]

It's definitly winding down, no doubt. This past wd may or may not be as great an indicator as might be believed. The prizes did suck, and ultimately people play for the prizes. If they bring out some good prizes for the next one, we will probably see better participation. Or not

Thats the thing though. In theory, if the prizes are good, people pay for them. Its been shown in MANY before so I dont understand why the prizes have sucked. It was nice seeing the building boost as I look forward to those but if GREE is not trying to kill the game, like they have been saying then what in the world are they doing.

[thescondo]

I'm not sure teams planned to regen when going against you but may have had to call an audible. I'm on a faction that finished in the 30s and when we faced some top 10 teams we just didn't have any targets. I'm guessing that the top ten unless matched against each other faced light competition. In the past we could periodically give someone a challenge but this WD some defenses were out of reach.

Sorry I forgot about that - yeah crazy with the defense "fixed" some players had zero losses - There was no point to waste "gold" so that was a big factor -

[NexusImperium]

Thats the thing though. In theory, if the prizes are good, people pay for them. Its been shown in MANY before so I dont understand why the prizes have sucked. It was nice seeing the building boost as I look forward to those but if GREE is not trying to kill the game, like they have been saying then what in the world are they doing.

The prizes suck because Gree now no longer has any choice. When units were 100K a/d a 10% boost wasn't that much but now that they are 10M a/d a 10% boost is a HUGE difference. So now they're forced to give out 1, 2, 3% boosts so that the stat spread doesn't run away too fast.

The secret is that this game is no-longer primarily a PvP game because the stat inflation on top of the existing bonus units have removed all competition from the game. Anymore it's really just an LTQ/box fest and the only competitive element remaining is FL.

[Speed ump]

Pidgeot, I think that's a question we have all asked for a long time. What do they think they're doing. I'm sure whatever it was, they felt it would help spending, and maybe so if the support and resolution of issues was good. I have always gotten a response in other games I play, though all are somewhat vague for many reasons. The biggest difference is those games done have nearly the number of glitches that this one does.

[Pidgeot]

Pidgeot, I think that's a question we have all asked for a long time. What do they think they're doing. I'm sure whatever it was, they felt it would help spending, and maybe so if the support and resolution of issues was good. I have always gotten a response in other games I play, though all are somewhat vague for many reasons. The biggest difference is those games done have nearly the number of glitches that this one does.

I always felt that the units awarded should have been better in stats. Something like 50k starting since that unit would make most players armies and they would grow from there ending in about 500k or so for final prize, depending on level but I did not expect prizes to hit the millions. The ONLY way to control stats now is to cap how many units you can farm from boss events. Something like 25 to 50 max. We know GREE has this ability since there are limits on special edition units. Also putting the limit on the last epic boss units to 25 or 50 also help though I think the biggest offenders are the boost those new boost buildings provide.

[gwill]

that website is messed up big time. 7500 daily installs of the game but only 50,000 active daily users? That doesn't add up if you ask me... Plus you can look at scores this past WD and see how few players are playing the main event.

[Agent Orange]

that website is messed up big time. 7500 daily installs of the game but only 50,000 active daily users? That doesn't add up if you ask me... Plus you can look at scores this past WD and see how few players are playing the main event.

It's from guys like me who have to keep reloading the IOS app because it locks up and that is the only way around the problem other than saying screw it. I didn't do a lot of battles in WD but I still had to reload about 30 times last WD. Anyone with older players is stuck reloading constantly so I can see how the downloads are so skewed.

[bam bam.]

that website is messed up big time. 7500 daily installs of the game but only 50,000 active daily users? That doesn't add up if you ask me... Plus you can look at scores this past WD and see how few players are playing the main event.

1 in 12 has to reinstall daily. Numbers add up haha

[J-manKometh96]

I always felt that the units awarded should have been better in stats. Something like 50k starting since that unit would make most players armies and they would grow from there ending in about 500k or so for final prize, depending on level but I did not expect prizes to hit the millions. The ONLY way to control stats now is to cap how many units you can farm from boss events. Something like 25 to 50 max. We know GREE has this ability since there are limits on special edition units. Also putting the limit on the last epic boss units to 25 or 50 also help though I think the biggest offenders are the boost those new boost buildings provide.

But that flies in the face of your primary belief that those willing to spend much time on this game, instead of money, should be able to reap great rewards. That is why none of your ideas get taken very seriously. Most of what you propose ultimately would make you complain more, and just piss most everyone else off.

You are definitely GREE material. I take it you've already submitted your résumé?

[Pidgeot]

But that flies in the face of your primary belief that those willing to spend much time on this game, instead of money, should be able to reap great rewards. That is why none of your ideas get taken very seriously. Most of what you propose ultimately would make you complain more, and just piss most everyone else off.

You are definitely GREE material. I take it you've already submitted your résumé?

What the **** are you talking about?

[J-manKometh96]

If I have to explain your own ideas to you, well there's not much point is there?

[Agent Orange]

If I have to explain your own ideas to you, well there's not much point is there?

Darn you! I just blew my latte out my nose.

[J-manKometh96]

Ooh, I bet that burns! Lol

[groovy shags]

All the games are doing great! Don't believe me? Read the forums for yourself!

[Agent Orange]

Ooh, I bet that burns! Lol

Indeed, worse that my alergies are also in full swing so even though I tried to catch most of it back in the cup
It was ruined by the addition of all that mucus.

[Pidgeot]

If I have to explain your own ideas to you, well there's not much point is there?

I never said to spend, spend and spend. I still believe those who put in the time should be rewarded for it. I also said events should not cost what they do now to finish and if a faction wants to spend, something around 120 a event for the entire faction should be fine since its roughly 2 bucks a person. I also said if you can finish for free then great.

Do put words in my mouth

[J-manKometh96]

Do put words in my mouth

While that might be a lot of fun, you're doing well enough all by yourself. Maybe one day you will understand all on your own exactly what you said.

[Vile Lynn]

Indeed, worse that my alergies are also in full swing so even though I tried to catch most of it back in the cup
It was ruined by the addition of all that mucus.
Ooooooooh TMI! lol, I read it; I cannot unread it! Ewwww!
Hope you're feeling better.



on topic: IMHO, MW is doing just fine. GREE is really too big to fail just from some buggie apps. They will sell off before they close MW down, CC too.
MW, CC: ok; KA, K&D, BtD: iffy; LoW, WoN: very iffy.

[NexusImperium]

Lehman Brothers was also too big to fail.