What are the odds? No seriously, what are they?

[EFIL 4 ZAGGIN]

I can't find this info anywhere. What are the actual odd of opening any possible prize in the chance chests?
Since you can pay real money to do so, you have to provide these numbers, and I can't find them.
Can someone with Gree post these numbers here? Or a link to where you have it?
In compliance with US & Canadian laws, please ensure it is as clear and precise as possible.
I've been wondering for a while so thanks in advance!

[SylusBlack]

Y-you actually expect GREE to post the odds to their chance chests in here?

Don't take this the wrong way...but have you been smoking something? No company will ever do this. There's a certain amount of transparency a company has/will provide.

GREE doesn't have to provide any of these numbers to you OP, they are not bound by law to share that info with you...

[legalious]

When they happen and you get some neat items, the odds at that point are 1:1. I personally opened roughly 60 chests and got a total of 4 epics so the odds can be 1:15.

On the flip side, some people are less lucky and can have odds of like 1:200.

[Kangaroeland]

Id kill for 1/200

[foxtrot_uniform]

yeah more like 1 in like 1200

[roookey1]

But seriously for a second, how is the situation really?

In most if not all European countries, lotteries or providers of betting games have to inform customers about the chances to win a prize (unless participation is free, then the marketer doesn't have to inform about the odds, however, misinformation about prizes or rules of participation are illegal).

The way chest chances are described ("8x chance", "3x chance") is certainly misleading as it doesn't give any indication of one's odds to actually receive one of the prizes (or rather, products intended to buy) prior to a purchase. Customers have to buy 'a pig in a poke'. The only way to learn about the actual odds is by paying considerable amounts of money, which may violate European consumers protection rights. I don't know about US and Canadian laws though. Gree should inform their customers about the actual factor in the FAQ at least (even better, right in the chest purchase dialog), which would also protect them against lawsuits by customers who would feel cheated if they didn't.
Furthermore, my interpretation of the law would suggest that it is not allowed to manipulate chance (like depending on prior purchases or usage patterns).

Based on expensive learning, I'd estimate the odds to 'win' epic armor from chests is about 1: 300. So a so-called "8x chance" would mean that the odds are around 1:40...but as most of us know, 'chances' are also good that you will feel punished for your purchase by only receiving something like a Blazeborne as 'epic' (although to be fair, it looks to me that Gree reduced the drop rate for pseudo epics notably).

[Kent Chai]

yeah more like 1 in like 1200
The odds really fluctuate...there are occasions where I opened 52 chests and got 3 epics. And there are times I got "NONE"....so cant really tell the odds percentage.

[Ant venom]

There are also some occasions in which someone who isn't Mr. Lucky Noob, opens one chest and get the most recent chance chest epic or the chance chest epic prior to the most recent chance chest epic. So the chances could be 2:1(because of the recent chance chest epic being kind of decent) or 1:200 (because of the fact that u get fodder) so this might be the problem why GREE won't give u the odds. But I still want GREE to reveal the odds since I want to open some chests in the future, but with the odds being so different at times and the fact that people have been strongly discouraging people to open chests throughout this Forum and in the game(KnD) I really cannot bring myself to be able to be able to open any chests, not even one, dispite being cheap as I don't have enough armor slot for more garbage and fodder that I don't need.

Cheers;
Ant venom

[roookey1]

Guys, some of you should wipe off the dust from your old school's math books and read them again. ;-)

Odds are odds. There's a random factor, but if it would be something like "8 times 1:300", it could result a hit on the first shot just as well as no hit in 500 tries. the factor itself is the same.

If you throw a dice, hope for a '6' and get it at the 2nd try, it doesn't mean that the odds were 1:2. The odds were still 1:6. So you were lucky to hit the 6 at your 2nd try. If the odds were 1:2, you could expect it at the 2nd try.

Now what a 'chest opener' (chest lottery player) has to do is to invest money first to find out that the odds to get an epic from it are actually very low - something the '3x chance', '8x chance' or '11x chance' advertising tries to cover. One has to buy many chests in order to get a 'feeling' for the probable likelihood/factor of getting what he desires to buy. After many tries by myself and from what I read about the experiences of others, I feel the random factor must currently be between 1:250 and 1:350, multiplied by the '#-x chance' a certain chest gives, so usually between 1:80 (3x) and 1:35 (11x). It still means that you could pocket an epic by just 1 purchase, but also that you may have to buy 150 of them without getting anything of actual 'epic' value. Think of a dice, but a special one: with 35-80 faces. ;-)

That's also why for casual chest buyers, opening chests right now will most probably not pay off, as by now they will have by far most of the epics one can receive from chests, but with only 2-3 interesting (non-mono, strong) epics having been released during the last 3 months (all-seeing eye, glacius, gunslinger), one would (mathematically) have to open quite a few hundreds of chests to receive exactly the ones he desires (but instead, receive the 4th or 5th copies of Cryptid & Co., plus tons of 2-stars and 3-stars he is forced to smelt away because of the limited armory storage space). The odds to receive epics that at least get close to current war armor in terms of strength are extremely low right now and many will feel that the smart option is not to buy now but to wait until at least 5-6 interesting armors are in the pot again.

[Ant venom]

I have actually found that the higher the number-multiplied chest the worser the rewards become as this is part of GREE's plan to squeeze the player base before KnD shuts down as a backup, so they are more smarter than u think they are.

Cheers;
Ant venom

[Regretz]

Well my personal experience with chests has caused me to never buy a chance chest again. A friend of mine, for example, bought 1 chest and received Gunslingers. Of course im happy for him, but at the same time extremely mad as I feel I deserved it more.

I bought 3x 52 chests. My 1st 52 gave me NO epics. My 2nd pull gave me a blazeborne and arborsteel... extremely mad. 3rd pull gave me 2x druidic and a centurion. I will NEVER purchase another chest again. Waste of money.

[Marco_]

But seriously for a second, how is the situation really?

In most if not all European countries, lotteries or providers of betting games have to inform customers about the chances to win a prize (unless participation is free, then the marketer doesn't have to inform about the odds, however, misinformation about prizes or rules of participation are illegal).

Those kinds of laws are probably made to regulate odds of getting something out of the bet, and not for things that stay inside (the pixels and stats of an armor) .
The times that Gree held cash sweepstakes in their Jackpot Slots game, it seems Europe (or at least the Netherlands) was excluded from participating.
So I guess zero chance of getting a reward outside the game means no need to list that zero percent chance.

[SylusBlack]

There's no need to provide those numbers, because a chest isn't like a casino.

Also, you aren't paying straight up cash for chests, you first have to purchase gems. This is why they don't have to provide you with odds.

The laws are only in place so that when you are betting real money in a place of gambling you can 'fairly' know how quickly you'll earn/lose your money.

[roookey1]

Pretty much the only purpose of gem currency is to avoid making people feel how much real money they actually spend, it is a classic p4p/p2w concept.

Good luck arguing like you did above in a country where gambling is completely illegal. 'Your honor, in fact I bought chicken feet and we were just gambling with those chicken feet, not real money!' ...lol, the juridical system is not as 'stupid' as you paint it. ;-)

On a side-note, I made the mistake to open chests today: total waste of money, only 2 outdated pseudo epics.